September 10, 2014

2014 Dirty D Week 2 Power Ranks

Week 2 power Ranks



1. Tahiti Loungers (1-0, 142 points)

If Leveon Bell is this good all year, watch out. Potentially adding Josh Gordon to this squad is deadly and more than makes up for losing Rice for the year. Luck and Ertz both showing signs of potential top-5 campaigns.


2. Mosey Machine (1-0, 134 points)

Backing up Tate with West is already paying off, although the Giants offense (and Cruz) are worrisome. Overall, this is a great roster top to bottom. Both Cutler and Pitta looked better than expected in Week 1. (And I expected both to be pretty good.)


3. Angry Pirates (1-0, 149 points)

Cordarrelle Patterson is a special player. He had 100+ rushing yards in Week 1. This team is rock solid at both RB and WR. Not so great at QB/TE, yet. Lots of potential, though.


4. Eat More Chicken (1-0, 137 points)

23 total points from all RBs on the roster in Week 1 is alarming. Everywhere else, Jenna is stacked. Best QB/TE combo in the league.


5. A Pinch Better (1-0, 132 points)

Another very solid starting lineup. Talks of Beast mode slowing down seem premature, but after Percy the WRs are “meh”. Jimmy Graham had a slow game with a 8/82 line. That’s how good he is.


6. Victorious Secret (1-0, 118 points)

Foster, Nicks, Maclin, and Spiller are all very effective when healthy. Right now this team is a tough out, but we’ll see how long it can stay on the field. Roddy White is a beast.


7. The  Crossing Guards (0-1, 88 points)

Both TEs getting dinged up hurts, but Week 1 was slow only because Rodgers/Jordy/AP were all contained. Don’t count on that happening again.


8. Boston Patriots (0-1, 104 points)

This team really needs Reggie Bush and Rashad Jennings not to suck this year or it’s in for a bumpy ride. Witten and Brady are just OK so the WRs need to beast virtually every week for Mr. B. I think this is going to be a playoff bubble/.500 team all year.


9. The rental guys (0-1, 104 points)

The Stacy situation is very disappointing, and I hate the RB depth on this team. Winning games early with a healthy Gronk is important. I’ll be closely watching Terrance Williams vs Reggie Wayne this year, as I passed on Wayne for Williams in the draft. I think it might have been a mistake, Wayne looked great in Week 1.  (Williams did too, but Wayne is niceee)


10. The Godfather (0-1, 111 points)

Not a great week for Abe. Charles barely touched the ball, Martin got hurt mid game, Rudolph and Allen were both quiet. Matty Ice was a beast, but this team may produce headaches frequently this year unless there is more consistency throughout the roster.


11. A1 Providers (0-1, 132 points)

After Megatron and Brees this team is pretty Ugly. Gross RB situation, I’m not an Olsen fan, and just overall very limited upside.


12. Team Ice Cream (0-1, 102 points)

2nd lowest score in the league in Week 1. Three starters (Ellington, Gates, Gerhart) are questionable for Week 2. Adam has a bunch of Chargers (Mathews, Floyd, Gates) and they are playing the Seahawks. Nothing good here right now.

September 5, 2014

MAGL August 2014 Stats


August 2014 of MAGL is in the books. We got our boy Bill Poch back and overall, participation was solid. Adam and I still have perfect attendance in 2014. (Adam might even have had perfect attendance last year, too.) We got to play all 5 Friday's in August. Sadly, we didn't do a great job remembering to take pics this month.


Here are the rounds:

Forgot to snap one before Bill left 
Week 12- 8/1/14- Right Course 
James 39
Adam 45
Bill 50





Week 13- 8/8/14- Back Course 
James 41
Adam 45
Bill 48
Dan 50



Week 14- 8/15/14- Middle Course 
Bill 41
James 44
Adam 46



Week 15- 8/22/14- Right Course 
James 45
Andy 45
Adam 49
Dan 54




Week 16- 8/29/14- Back Course 
James 42
Andy 47
Adam 48
Bill 48
Beckerman 58




Below is a chart of August ONLY stats:
(click to enlarge)




Below is a chart of ALL GOLF LEAGUE 2014  stats:








Some other cool random graphs from MAGL 2014 thus far:












September 4, 2014

Thursday Night Football betting guide



By: Jeremy Tannenbomb




Current line: Seahawks -6 vs Packers


What a great game to kickoff the NFL season. Spreads are tricky in Seattle. 6 seems a bit high since they are facing one of the better teams in the league in the Packers. I will keep my eye on this number as it gets closer to gametime. Seattle is a crazy place, and after winning the Super Bowl last season, I expect it to be as loud as it’s ever been. The first half spread of Seattle -3 is what I would look at here. I see the Seahawks coming out red hot with the crowd behind them and getting off to a faster start than Green Bay. I am intrigued by the O/U at 47. I kind of like the Under here. If anyone can slow down this Packers offense it will be Seattle at home. I see this game ending up in the low 40s.


Prediction: Seahawks 23, Packers 17
UNDER 47
Seahawks 1st Half -3

Player to Score 1st TD:
Marshawn Lynch 4/1
Randall Cobb 7/1
I will usually go with 1 player on each team.  I like to typically go more than 5 to 1 on these but Lynch seems like as good a bet as any to get the first TD for Seattle. 




September 3, 2014

NFL best Win Over/Unders for 2014


By: Jeremy Tannenbomb

Good to have Football back. Now let’s get right into some NFL Win Total bets with the season set to start on Thursday.


Win Total Best Bets:


Niners Under 10.5 

Love the Niners under. Harbaugh and ownership hate each other, Ray McDonald is trying to become the first player to get suspended under the new Domestic Violence rules, and the news finally came down on Friday that Aldon Smith will miss 9 games. On top of all that, I really don’t buy into Colin Kaepernick (Editors note: Strongly disagree, love Kap). They are in a very tough, physical division, so you can’t mark down any game as an easy win even with the Rams throwing Shaun Hill out there. They also have tough road games with the Saints and Broncos. I think they have a good chance to make the playoffs but I don’t see them getting 11 or more wins. Look for them to end up around 9 or 10 wins and fight for a Wild Card spot.




Packers Over 10.5

I expect the Packers to have a big season. I don’t love the Lions or Vikings so I don’t think their division is as tough as some might think. Jordy Nelson is one of the best WR’s in football, Lacy looking at a monster season in his 2nd year, with what hopes to be a full healthy year from Rodgers and Cobb and I see them having one of the best offenses in football.  2 big road games at Seattle and New Orleans, but you get Philly and New England at home. No other out of division games really scares me. I see them fighting for a top seed in the NFC in the end.




Chargers Over 8

Total of 8 just seems weird to me. A year ago they were in the playoffs, winning a road game at Cincy. They had one of the best offenses in the league behind a revitalized Philip Rivers. I see the Chiefs regressing and the Raiders being terrible within the division. They also luck out with their tougher games and get the Seahawks and Patriots at home. I just don’t see this team doing worse than .500. Plus, Rivers and that BOLO tie, fashion mogul.



Lions Under 8.5
Panthers Under 8.5
Cowboys Under 7.5
Patriots Over 11


These are a few others I might consider. Panthers and Cowboys I definitely won’t touch, as the odds are just not worth it. I just feel very strongly about these 2 teams not doing well. The Panthers are in a very tough division with the Saints, Falcons, and Bucs. They also have a weak offense with Cam banged up already. As for the Cowboys, I just think their defense is one of the worst we may ever see. I don’t see them getting to .500 this season. I touched on the Lions a bit. Think they have a tough schedule and could easily be .500 or worse. Patriots I just threw in here because they win 11+ games every year and besides the Broncos, no team really stands out. I am sure they will do it again, I just couldn’t bet on them.

Editors Note: Pats Over 11 is basically the lock of the decade. They have at least 12 wins in the past 4 seasons and this year they are decisively better than last. Free Money. 


Finna win, #JeremyGuarantee.



September 2, 2014

2014 Dirty D Draft Recap, Ranks, and Notes



Last Night was the 6th version of the Dirty D fantasy football draft. Everyone was in attendance this year, so that's an improvement (#AutoBill  #DeutscheBill)

Here is the final draft board: (Click to enlarge)

12 team, PPR, 4 pt per passing TD, snake draft, random order:





WARNING WARNING WARNING 


Everything you read below is just my unprofessional opinion and you may or may not agree with my assessment of the draft or each team. I always welcome differing opinions so if anyone wants to rank these drafts I will post it here on my blog. Try not to be too sensi reading this blog, it's just fantasy football.



Steal of the Draft #1- Adrian Peterson, 6th overall to The Crossing Guards

Steal of the Draft #2-  DeMarco Murray, 24th overall to Angry Pirates

Steal of the Draft #3-  Leveon Bell, 32nd overall to Tahiti Loungers

Steal of the Draft #4-   Roddy White, 33rd overall to Victorious Secret

Steal of the Draft #5- Toby Gerhart, 50th overall to Team Ice Cream

Steal of the Draft #6-  Andrew Luck, 80th overall to Tahiti Loungers

Steal of the Draft #7- Reggie Wayne, 93rd overall to the rental guys

Steal of the Draft #8- Ruben Randle, 103rd overall to A Pinch Better

Steal of the Draft #90- Carlos Hyde, 119th overall to Team Ice  Cream

Steal of the Draft #9- RG3, 129th overall to Victorious Secret





Reach of the Draft #1- Arian Foster, 9th overall to Victorious Secret

Reach of the Draft #2- Drew Brees, 20th overall to A1 Providers

Reach of the Draft #3-  Matt Ryan, 46th overall to The Godfather

Reach of the Draft #4- CJ?K 66th overall to A Pinch Better

Reach of the Draft #5-  Nick Foles 72nd overall to Angry Pirates

Reach of the Draft #6- Seattle D/ST, 82nd overall to Eat More Chicken

Reach of the Draft #7- Jay Cutler, 86th overall to Mosey Machine

Reach of the Draft #8- Hakeem Nicks, 88th overall to Victorious Secret




OVERALL TEAM RANKS 

I want to explain how I ranked the teams. First, I am not a believer in kickers or defenses making a difference in fantasy. Why? Math. That's why. Despite what you may think, D/STs and kickers have very little influence on a team/ it's hard to tell the difference between them in early September. Sure, SEATTLE D/ST may be the one exception, but even still, you can stream a defense every week and get to 80% of Seattle's production.

So I didn't include any kickers or D/STs when ranking the teams. I strictly rated each team based on:

QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs.

The best team in each category was assigned 12 points, the second best team 11 points, etc.





Now, we all know all positions are not created equally. RBs are more valuable than QBs. WRs are more valuable than TEs, because you start 2-3 of them per week. Therefore, when judging each team, I assigned a weight to each position. After talking to a few people, I decided to use:

40% weight for RBs
30% weight for WRs
20% weight for QBs
10% weight for TEs

So, for example, if I thought Paul had the best WR group, I would assign him 12 points. Then I would take 12 and multiply it by 30 for a total WR score of 360. I then added up everyone's positional scores and totaled them. Here are the raw results:






One thing this math equation does not do is take into account the GAPS between position. For example, Sean has a much larger advantage with Jimmy Graham than this equation would show. So, based off the above, here are MY official unprofessional ranks for this year's draft:



1. Tahiti Loungers (haters finna hate)
2. Mosey Machine 
3. Boston Patriots 
4. Angry Pirates 
5. Eat More Chicken
6. The Crossing Guards 
7. A Pinch Better
8. Victorious Secret
9. Team Ice Cream
10. the rental guys 
11. A1 Providers 
12. The Godfather 




Team by Team notes:


Tahiti Loungers

QB1- Andrew Luck
QB2- Tony Romo

RB1- Eddie lacy
RB2- Leveon Bell
RB3- Pierre Thomas
RB4- Ray Rice
RB5- Andre Williams
RB6- Lance Dunbar
RB7- James Starks

WR1- Julio Jones
WR2- Pierre Garcon
WR3- Terrance Williams
WR4- Cody Latimer
WR5- Josh Gordon

TE1- Zach Ertz

Defense- None
Kicker- None


I was hoping that Jimmy Graham fell to me at #8 but I knew there was a good chance Bill or Sean would scoop him up. I can't complain too much- Eddie Lacy at #8 is a gift from the Fantasy Gods. He's a stud and I am expecting a MONSTER season from the entire Packer offense.

I was borderline shocked that Julio Jones fell to me in the 2nd round. I was ready to pick another RB but I couldn't pass on Julio, who was pacing as the #1 WR last year before he got hurt.

I also thought Leveon Bell dropping to me in the 3rd round was a little ridiculous... above I listed him as one of the better steals of the draft.

Ray Rice is someone who I think, upon return from suspension in Week 3, has a chance to surprise some people. I think a bunch of people even made fun of this pick when I made it, guess we'll have to see who gets the last laugh.

I was pleasantly surprised Andrew Luck fell so far in the draft. I knew before I picked him a QB run was about to go down, and I definitely wanted to grab Luck before someone else sniped him.

Clearly this team is built on RB strength. That was my goal going in, and I'm happy coming out. I'm armed with RBs for days for trade season.

PS- Josh Gordon is expected to sue the NFL and file for a TRO which means he still may be able to play this year. Sure, it's unlikely, but at a 15th round price, I'll just drop him in the next couple days if nothing happens. These are the types of moves I wish more people in our league would consider making.... Not drafting a kicker and picking a high upside flier that you can trade in anytime.


Best Picks: Lacy, Jones, Bell, Luck
Worst Picks: none. If I thought any of my picks were bad I wouldn't have picked them

Overall Rank:  1st  (Haters fuel me)




Team Ice Cream

QB1- Ben Roethlisberger

RB1- Andre Ellington
RB2- Ryan Mathews
RB3- Toby Gerhart
RB4- Jeremy Hill
RB5- Carlos Hyde


WR1- Randall Cobb
WR2- Golden Tate
WR3- Mike Evans
WR4- Harry Douglas
WR5- Jarret Boykin
WR6- Da'Rick Rogers

TE1- Ladarius Green

Defense- St Louis
Kicker- Ghost

Adam took a kicker in Round 1, #2 overall. Needless to say, this hampered him big time in the draft.

I thought Adam did a great job of getting  RBs early when he could. The strategy here was obviously wait wait wait on QB and TE and just grab as many good RBs/WRs as possible. I think Adam took this a little too far. I totally understand the value of waiting, but somewhere in round 8, 9 or 10 you should be looking for a good QB, considering the history of our league (people taking multiple QBs too early . One of the most baffling picks was the St. Louis D/ST in the 11th Round. I thought this was an auto pick. RG3, Russell Wilson, a handful of RB lotto tickets all would have been much superior picks. I'm interested to hear why Adam went down the path he did. I also thought he waited way too long on TE... picking WR4 before you have your TE isn't advisable (at least when that WR4 is the 40th WR off the board... aka nothing special. And now Adam is stuck with Ladarius Green. Does he have potential to be really good? Sure. But he still has some hall of fame guy named Antonio Gates ahead of him who will siphon away all of Green's value as long as he's healthy.

Overall, Adam scored the lowest amount of points in my positional matrix, but because he acquired enough good players for trade chips I bumped him up to the #9 spot.

Best Picks: Ellington, Gerhart, Mathews
Worst Picks: Rams D/ST

Overall Rank: 9                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              



Victorious Secret

QB1- Peyton Manning
QB2- RG3
QB3- Johnny Football

RB1- Arian Foster
RB2- CJ Spiller
RB3- Stevan Ridley
RB4- Khiry Robinson

WR1- Roddy White
WR2- Jeremy Maclin
WR3- Hakeem Nicks
WR4- Jordan Mathews

TE1- Vernon Davis
TE2- Martellus Bennett

Defense- Patriots
Kicker- who cares/ doesn't matter

Kait is a Doctor. We all know that. A Doctor in Physical Therapy. So why, WHY Kait did you take so many brittle players? Foster at #9 is too risky for me. Sure if he stays healthy, he can justify that spot... but most people think Foster is a walking hamstring timebomb. Spiller could be good value, but again, we've seen him crumble before. Maclin and Nicks are possibly THE two most injury prone WRs in the league, so there is a lot of risk on this team.

There is also a lot of reward. If Foster and Spiller stay healthy, this team could rake. I LOVE Roddy White this year, I thought he was a steal towards the end of Round 3. RGIII lasted WAY too long in our draft....I think it's perfect to draft him as a high upside back up like Kait did. RG3 could be a huge trade chip at some point this season for Kait (Or, better yet, if RG3 works out she can trade Manning if the team gets too thin.)


Best: Roddy, RG3
Worst: Nicks,

Overall Rank: 8



Angry Pirates 

QB1- Nick Foles

RB1- LeSean McCoy
RB2- Demarco Murray
RB3- Jonique Bell
RB4- Darren Sproles
RB5- Kniles Davis

WR1- Antonio Brown
WR2- Cordarelle Patterson
WR3- Kendall Wright
WR4- Kelvin Benjamin
WR5- Riley Cooper
WR6- Aaron Dobson

TE1- Travis Kelce


Similar to my team, Campbell built his strength on quality RB depth, and I love it. I've never actually seen Murray fall to the last pick of the 2nd round in mocks this year... I doubt Campbell expected him to be there. Bell is also a nice player to have... I do expect him and Reggie Bush to split time if they are both healthy, but I think there will be enough work for both players.

The WR corps here is also very solid. Antonio Brown is a great pick and Patterson is a lot of peoples favorite sleeper. He has stupid speed, and if he wasn't on the stupid Vikings he'd probably be a 2nd round pick.

The QB/TE situation here is not the best... and its not as good as it could have been either , which is a shame. Campbell took Foles as the #6 QB off the board which actually is about right, but still too early for my liking. I understand that picking on the turn you have to reach for the  guys you like as they wont be there, but as a Foles believer I still woudl have passed on him at the 6/7 turn. ESP considering Campbell already has McCoy. I'm sort of in the camp where I like the QB-WR teammate connection, and I don't mind the WR-RB combo, but I really don't like the QB-RB combo like Campbell made for himself. Instead, at that turn, I wish Cbell took a TE. Because he ended up waiting forever and drafting Travis Kelce, who DOES have some nice upside but hes hard to trust as a starter right now.

Bottom line, though, is this team will be really good because of the RBs.

Best: Murray, Patterson
Worst: Foles,

Overall Rank: 4


Eat More Chicken 

QB1- Matt Stafford

RB1- Gio Bernard
RB2- Danny Woodhead
RB3- Bernard Pierce
RB4- Shonn Greene

WR1- Demaryius Thomas
WR2- Andre Johnson
WR3- Torey Smith
WR4- Sammy Watkins
WR5- Doug Baldwin

TE1- Julius Thomas

Defense- Seattle

Sigh. What a great start for this team. I would LOVE this team if Jenna didnt make a couple mistakes:

1. Drafting Matt Stafford.

I love Stafford and I love him this year but when you go TE early, as a rule you cant reall go QB "early" either. I would have much preferred Jenna to grab Ben Tate here and get a QB later.

2. Drafting a defense so early

This was a gross pick. It just is, people. Jenna did the same thing last year... passed on talent on the board to pick the Seattle defense. And guess what ? her team was thin. Again, picking a defense this early is not a good move. I feel like I write about this all the time and people just ignore it so Ill just leave this at it's a horrible pick.

Jenna's team would be BEAST if she had any RB depth. But she has virtually none. After Gio, who I like, her next best RBs all suck. You just cant win without RBs and when you're not active on the waiver wire or trade market, you really can't hamstring yourself like this in the draft without a plan.

The one awesome thing here is that Jenna is going to get a combined 25 TDs from the Thomas boys in Denver. Just lethal to have Peyton's top 2 targets on your team. The Crossing Guards are the lucky team to play Jenna on Denver's bye.


Best: D. Thomas, J Thomas
Worst: Seattle Def.  STOP PICKING D/ST SO EARLY.

Overall Rank:  5th



A Pinch Better

QB1- Cam Newton
QB2- Philip Rivers

RB1- Marshawn Lynch
RB2- Alfred Morris
RB3- Chris Johnson
RB4- Mike Tolbert


WR1- Vincent Jackson
WR2- Percy Harvin
WR3- Wes Welker
WR4- Ruben Randle
WR5- Dwayne Bowe
WR6- Steve Smith

TE1- Jimmy Graham


I think Sean must have a terrible non-ppr influence from playing in his other  (non-ppr) leagues. Lynch, Morris and V Jax are 3 big time fallers in PPR ranks. I liked at least 3 other RBs on the board more than Lynch (Martin, Ellington, Murray.)

The other problem is that Sean just stopped drafting RBs. Sure, he took CJ?K in the 6th (a pick I hate) but what happened Sean? Last year Sean survived on his RB depth. This year, he will likely be hurting at RB, which is never a good thing.

Sean really needs Welker or Randle to have a big year. Welker was a solid pick where he went- risky, but big upside. Same with Randle... I like his upside and thought it was a nice pick up in the 9th round.

Jimmy Graham was a great pick at #7 overall, as as I already mentioned, would have been my personal selection. I also like the QBs Sean got later in the draft... Cam fell far, and the duo Sean has here should be pretty good all year.


Best: Jimmy, Randle
Worst: V Jax, Chris Johnson (Newsflash, it isn't 2009)

Overall Rank: 7


The Godfather

QB1- Matt Ryan

RB1- Jamaal Charles
RB2- Doug Martin
RB3- MJD
RB4- Steven Jackson
RB5- Chris Ivory
RB6- Bobby Rainey


WR1- Keenan Allen
WR2- Michael Floyd
WR3- Kenbrell Thompkins
WR4- Brandon LaFell
WR5- Kenny Britt

TE1- Kyle Rudolph

OK. Lets start with the GOOD:

Abe's first 2 rounds went swimmingly. Charles is a fine selectionin the 1st, and I thought Doug Martin was a really nice pick in the 2nd round. Love Dougie this year. Easily Abe's best pick. My other favorite pick of Abe's was Kyle Rudolph.  I thought he went just where he should have and if Abe wanted him, he certainly would not have been able to wait an extra round, so the Rudolph pick was good.

Now, the BAD. Actually, wait. Go take a bathroom break first because we have a lot to cover:

-Matt Ryan pick in the 4th round, 46th overall.

Are you trolling me with this pick Abe? I can't understand it for a few reasons. Matt Ryan's ADP is around 70. You took him as the 4th QB off the board. The 4th QB? Even if you think he finishes that high, wayyyy too early. After gettting #salted by the entire league after the pick was made, I promised I would explain in depth why this was a really bad pick.
Instaead of Matt Ryan at 46 overall, you could have selected Ryan Mathews. Later in the draft in Round 9 you picked Steven Jackson, with Romo, Rivers, and Kaepernick on the board still.

Which combo would you rather have?

Mathews/Romo
Ryan/S Jax?

Pretty much a no-brainer. You could have replaced 80% of Ryan's value 4-5 round later, while S Jax isn't nearly 80% the player Ryan Mathews is supposed to be.

-San Fran D/ST in the 8th round was at least 4 rounds too early. While someone MIGHT be able to make a case for Seattle's D/ST being picked before the double digit rounds, you 100% cannot make that case for any other defense. They change way too much from year to year. Navarro Bowman wont be ready until mid-season, earliest. Aldon Smith got a 9 game suspension. They downgraded at safety and the corners aren't that great to begin with. Just overall way too early to pick this D/ST.

Kenbrell Thompkins ADP is 161, hes being taken as the 71st WR off the board.

Abe picked him at #118, at least 4 rounds too early. IMUO, Thompkins isn't even draft able. Homer pick.


Anyway, Abe had a rough draft after the first few picks. The good news, though, is Abe is one of the most active owners on the waiver wire and in the trade market, so he should be able to overcome what I feel as if is the worst draft in the league.


Best:  Martin, Rudolph
Worst: Ryan, SF, Thompkins

Overall Rank: 12



the rental guys 

QB1- Colin Kaepernick

RB1- Mat Forte
RB2- Zac Stacy
RB3- Trent Richardson
RB4- Ahmad Bradshaw


WR1- DeSean Jackson
WR2- TY Hilton
WR3- Eric Decker
WR4- Reggie Wayne
WR5- Cecil Shorts III
WR6- DeAndre Hopkins

TE1- Gronk


Last year I gave Dan the second best draft. This year, we are on different pages and I gave him the 3rd worst.

You probably have felt like you've read this 1,000,000 times in the blog, bu the RB depth here is so weak!!! Why do people always ignore RB depth? I love the WR depth on this team... but Id much rather invest in 7 RBs over 7 WRs, especially when one of Dan's 3 RBs is Trent Richardson. The guy literally has done nothing in the NFL. He had three good weeks in 2012 and that's it.The fact he got traded for a 1st rounder is insane, and anyone who is leaning on T Rich in 2014 is in trouble. He's just a plodder with a big name from a big school that ESPN talked about too much. He sucks.

The Gronk pick in the 2nd round is solid...it's not the direction I would go, way to risky for me, but it's not a bad pick. I would have really liked to see Dan grab a second useful tight end instead of a 6th and 7th WR later in the draft. Zach Ertz Round 9 instead of Shorts would have been a great pick and made me feel much better about Gronk.

I really hated the Eric Decker pick, there were 6 WRs on the board still avail I like better than Decker.

Deandre Hopkins could be a good sleeper that Dan picked late, and even though I don't love Kaepernick this year, Dan got him really cheap so that part of his draft worked out well.

I also thought Reggie Wayne fell too far... probably Dan's best pick since he got him so late. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Wayne is Dan's best WR on his team this year.


Best: Forte, Wayne
Worst: T Rich, Decker

Overall Rank: 10



The Crossing Guards 

QB1- Aaron Rodgers

RB1- Adrian Peterson
RB2- Fred Jackson
RB3- Knoshon Moreno
RB4- Devonta Freeman
RB5- Jonathan Stewart

WR1- Jordy Nelson
WR2- Michael Crabtree
WR3- Julien Edelman
WR4- Justin Hunter
WR5- James Jones

TE1- Jordan Cameron
TE2- Jordan Reed

Bill's first live draft in 2 years! Well Done! Bill was handed AP at #6 overall, who I would have taken 1st, so I already love that. I was very happy with the Jordy Nelson pick as well in the 2nd round. That's about as good of a start as you can have... AP-Jordy.

And then the 3rd round came. I wont lie, I had my eyes on Aaron Rodgers too, but Bill grabbed in. It's a solid move. If I didnt think Rodgers would be the best QB this season, I wouldn't approve of it, but I do.. so I like the pick.

At this point in the draft if I am Bill I would have prioritized RB at my next pick. I would have loved to see him grab Mathews or even Jonique Bell, but instead Bill went with Crabtree, an interesting player. I think I like him a lot this year, so it's not a horrible pick, but I still would have grabbed one of the last safe RBs if I was Bill.

Bill also secured two really nice TEs... looking to take advantage of the W/R/T slot this year in Cameron and Reed. I like them both a lot.

Overall Bill's team is very strong EXCEPT he is very thin at RB, which is a big deal. I know AP probably has one of his RB slots on lock down all year, but God forbid an injury to AP and this team is sunk.

Overall, this is a really nice team. I just really hate being so thin at RB though and I have to dock you major points for that. BUT, just so everyone knows, I kinda wanted to rank this team higher.


Best: AP, Jordy, Reed
Worst: Edelman (Another chance to boost your RBs you passed on)

Overall Rank: 6th



Mosey Machine 

QB1- Jay Cutler

RB1- Montee Ball
RB2- Shane Vereen
RB3- Ben Tate
RB4- Terrance West
RB5- Mark Ingram
RB6- Ronnie Hillman

WR1- AJ Green
WR2- Victor Cruz
WR3- Marques Colston
WR4- Greg Jennings

TE1- Dennis Pitta
TE2- Charles Clay

Well, this is the last year I'm helping Beckerman prepare for his drafts!

I loved this draft, almost top to bottom with just a few flaws.

The good:

Shane Vereen was a good pick at the end of the 3rd round. It's the highest Ive seen him go and it's still a good pick. I really would have loved to get Vereen in the 4th with my own pick but I knew my pre draft love for Vereen that I expressed to Beck would prevent him from falling.

Ben Tate at the end of the 5th round was a steal. He shouldnt have lasted this long. And Beckerman backed him up with Terrance West, which was a good move.

Another TE I am high on this year is Dennis Pitta. I think he should be a PPR machine, and Beckerman let Pitta fall to him so it wasnt too early at all.

The only critique I have here is that Beckerman picked Jay Cutler too early. Adding another WR or TE would have been much better IMUO.

Best: Vereen, Tate, Pitta
Worst: Cutler

Overall Rank:  2



A1 Providers

QB1- Drew Brees

RB1- Frank Gore
RB2- Lamar Miller
RB3- Deangelo Williams
RB4- Jaquizz Rodgers

WR1- Megatron
WR2- Alshon Jeffery
WR3- Larry Fitzgerald
WR4- Mike Wallace
WR5- Anquan Boldin
WR6- Brian Hartline
WR7- Danny Amendola

TE1- Greg Olsen

Not picking a RB until the 5th round: Bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it turned out:

It turned out  somewhat OK. I personally would hate owning this team... it's just too WR heavy. I'm SURE Paul can and will make a trade or two eventually because he will have to. The good thing is  at least 4 of Pauls WRs could finish in the top 20.

Drew Brees was a reach... in the 2nd round Paul would have been much better off grabbing a RB. In fact, if he had taken someone like Doug Martin instead of Brees (and maybe Brady in the 7th) I would really have loved this team.

The one good thing about building a team on WRs is the fact they are healthier than RBs in general. So, Paul's team will likely be fairly steady all year. If he can get a few wins early and trade for a proven RB, watch out for the A1 Providers.

Best: Wallace I guess
Worst: Brees, Fitz

Overall Rank: 11



Boston Patriots

QB1- Tom Brady

RB1- Reggie Bush
RB2- Bishop Sankey
RB3- Rashad Jennings
RB4- LeGarrette Blount
RB5- Darren McFadden

WR1- Dez Bryant
WR2- Brandon Marshall
WR3- Emmanuel Sanders
WR4- Brandin Cools
WR5- Markus Wheaton

TE1- Jason Witten
TE2- Heath Miller


I know Mr. B wasn't happy with his draft spot, but I don't know why. I would have preferred to pick from the 12 hole. I would have also started WR-WR like Mr. B did... granted I would have taken Julio and Dez instead of Marshall did the right thing and loaded up on and Dez but to each his own.

Half our league could learn a lesson here. After going WR-WR, MR B did the right thing by loading up on RBs with his next 3 picks. It's still just a middle of the road RB corps, but since Mr. B is so strong at WR that hardly matters.

With good health, this should be a playoff team. I liked this draft a lot, cant really find anything negative to write abotu and also my brain is fried since this is the last team write up.


Best: Bush, Bryant, Blount
Worst:

Overall Rank: 3



August 28, 2014

JETs College Football Picks

By Jeremy Tannenbomb


College Football is back, the NFL is a week away, and my wife will start to hate me any day now. Time to start hypothetically gambling on sports again! (ya know, since it’s not legal) Maybe this will be the year I finally give up on trying to make teasers work. I will get some College Football points across here and hit the NFL sometime next week.



I am all aboard the UCLA train this year. Win their division within the PAC 12, over 9.5 wins, and to win it all in the new Playoff system. With Hundley back at QB and their incredible RB/LB hybrid in Myles Jack, among others, this could be a very special year for the Bruins. The PAC 12 is loaded but I think I only see 3 games presenting a big challenge to them. At Arizona St, home against Oregon, and at Washington. Arizona St will be a solid team this year, but I am more worried about the road environment on a Thursday night. Obviously Oregon is one of the best teams in the Nation coming into this season, with potential Heisman and #1 pick Marcus Mariota at the helm. And then at Washington, always a tough place to play in Seattle. Still, I think they have the talent and the coach in Jim Mora to get it done this season and make it to the 4 team playoff. After that, anything can happen.
2 other teams I am kind of high on this season are Georgia and Wisconsin. I think with Braxton Miller out, Wisconsin along with Michigan St has the best chance to steal the Big 10 championship. I will definitely take Wisconsin to take their division, as I don’t see Nebraska or Iowa being good enough to overtake Melvin Gordon and the Badgers. As for Georgia, obviously a great team with a great RB in Gurley. I just have a hunch they go over 9.5 wins, and get by Spurrier and the Gamecocks to win their division.



2 good games on tap for tonight. Texas A&M goes up against South Carolina and Boise State takes on Ole Miss. Gamecocks laying 10.5 to the Aggies and Ole Miss giving 10 to BBBBBoise. I’d take the favorites in both. Or just screw the teaser thing, and bring those spreads down!


EDITORS NOTE: Boise State hasn't been a double digit underdog in 6 years. Who cares that they are 0-6 vs. current SEC teams? Who cares that they had a 6 hour flight vs a 1 hour flight? No biggie. Time to get the REAL Bryan Harsin era underway. Boise State covers tonight. Lock it up. 


NFL is BACK! 5 thoughts/predictions


Fail Mary re-match, Thursday Sept 4


That’s right…. Next Thursday night the world will be watching the Green Bay Packers play @ the defending world champ Seattle Seahawks. First off, GREAT choice by the NFL here. 2 years ago when the Packers played in Seattle, we were all witness to the Fail Mary aka the last call the “replacement refs” ever made. Great game to open the season with.



Here are 5 other NFL thoughts:


1. Josh Gordon Suspension is upheld

Sad, sad news. I wrote about #FreeingJoshGordon in the past. I was holding out hope for almost a month that the lengthy delay in this decision would mean a greater chance of Gordon seeing the field in 2014. Apparently that isn't the case. 

AND, even though he lost his appeal, it looks like suing the NFL to get an injunction to play is not an option.



The ONLY silver lining here is that Gordon may get reinstated in January once the Browns season is over. If he stays clean until then, he should be good to go. Either way, it's a sad day in American Sports when Josh Gordon, the league's best WR last year, can't play football in 2014. 




2. Drew Brees "sucks" on the road 

This stemmed from a fantasy football argument I had with Jeremy. I said I liked Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees this year and cited Brees' inconsistency on the road as a reason why. Let's look at Brees' splits last year. 

He played 8 games at home and 8 on the road. We'll look at regular season only so the two data sets can be compared equally. 


(click to enlarge)

Brees played the Panthers, Falcons, and Bucs both away and at home. 
The other home games were against Cardinals, Dolphins, Bills, Cowboys, and 49ers. 
The road games were against the Bears, Patriots, Jets, Seahawks, and Rams. 

In those road games, to break down the 131 points he scored: 

14 @ TB
15 @ CHI
16 @ NE
21 @ JETS
18 @ ATL
9 @ SEA
23 @ STL
15 @ CAR

That's nothing crazy to write home about. It's solid... but certainly there are too many average or below average weeks in here to pick this guy as my #1 QB. 

The one caveat here is that his 2014 schedule includes 2 road games at Dallas and at Detroit, both which are indoors and he should perform better than he usually does on the road. Still, the week 13 match up @ Pitt and ESPECIALLY the week 15 match up @ Chicago scare me. 




3. The Patriots should sit Gronk 


Raise your hand if you're a Patriots fan. Now keep it up if you are sick of losing in the playoffs and you'd like to actually win a Super Bowl this decade. 

I expect everyone to have their hand up. The Patriots success over the past 5 years has been rather annoying.... sure every year we destroy the division and make the playoffs... but that clearly isn't enough. We need Super Bowl wins, not regualr season wins. 

That's why the Patriots should bench Rob Gronkowski until AT LEAST week 14. Why wouldn't they? Everyone knows the Pats don't need Gronk to make the playoffs, but we most definitely DO need Gronk if we want to win the Super Bowl. 

This literally means nothing. 

He plays way too hard to stay healthy for a full season. Is it possible? Maybe. But why risk it? We're talking about a guy who is COMING OFF ACL/MCL surgery in December. Why are we even discussing his week 1 status????? Do we really need him against the Dolphins? Absurd. Last year, after sitting out the first third of the season, he stayed healthy for a handful of games before re-injury and concussion city. 

When he is playing healthy, Gronk is a hall of fame talent and the most unstoppable Red Zone player in the league.... So why not save that guy for the playoffs? Hold him out of the majority of the regular season. It's the right move if the Pats want to win the Super Bowl instead of just piling up more regular season wins. 




4. If you have the #1 overall pick in your fantasy draft, select AP




Sure, AP only managed 77 rushing yards in his college career finale (Loss to Boise State), but that shouldn't weigh on your decision to take AP #1 overall in your drafts this year. Afterall, over the past 7 years AP has really grown as a player.

I expect 2014 to be AP's best year ever. The guy is a freak, it doesn't bother me that he is an older Rb (29). And he should definitely be the first player off boards in fantasy this year. Sure, McCoy or Charles could possibly score more than AP, but neither is as safe as AP. Peterson is a LOCK for at least 1,200 yards and 10 TDs. He has an easy schedule. His Offensive Line is among the best in the league. The offense overall is improved. He doesn't split carries. He get's all the goal line touches. His new coach, Norv Turner, loves his RBs to catch the ball out of the backfield... remember Ladanian Tomlinson? Yea, Norv fed him the ball like crazy and he was a fantasy beast. I expect AP to set a new career high in all receiving stats... in fact, here is my overall estimates for AP in 2014:

Games: 16
Rush Yards: 1,450
Rush TDs: 14
Receptions: 55
Receiving Yards: 475
Receiving TDs: 3

Let's compare that to what the #1 RB from last year, Jamaal Charles did. 


Pretty close, with the slight edge to Charles, who scored a LOT of TDs last year. 

Anyway, AP is in for a historic season. I would feel comfortable taking him #1 in any standard or PPR re-draft league. 





5. Super Bowl Prediction

Hmmmmmm Super Bowl Prediction. Let's see. In the NFC, it's awfully hard NOT to pick one of the 2 NFC West powerhouses, SF and Seattle. I think when the dust settles I would have to pick the Seahawks and that is simply based on the fact that I don't know where the game is being played. One thing I do know is the Seahawks ain't losing at home in the playoffs. Not going to happen.... so for the 49ers or Packers or Saints or whoever wants to beat them, you sure as hell better make sure that game isn't on the road. Fun fact: the Seahawks are 17-1 over the past two seasons at home. I could see SF ousting the champs if the game is in San Fran, but again that is too hard to predict and I actually think the SF defense takes a small step backwards this year, so the Seahawks are the pick out of the NFC. 

The AFC is slightly more wide open 

I would imagine one of the Broncos, Patriots, and Colts are going to the Super Bowl. The Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals could all make noise, but really, it comes down to the 3 best QBs in the AFC and their teams



Peyton Manning and the Broncos were embarrassed in the Super Bowl last year. For anyone who forgot, they lost to the Seahawks 43-8. The "best offense of all time" was held to basically nothing. 

Andrew Luck and the Colts were ousted by the Pats in the 2nd round last year. The defense wasn't near good enough, but Andrew Luck is clearly a budding superstar. I could see the Colts stealing a playoff game and making the Super Bowl.

And then there is the Pats. Brady doesn't look like hes aging, and the team made massive upgrade on the defensive side of the ball. Some guy named Revis. Is he good? Fact is the past couple years the Pats have been exposed in the secondary, esp when Talib left for injury both of the past 2 years. 

I'm picking the Pats to win the AFC. It's time they get back to the Super Bowl. I think the defensive improvements are enough to hold off Luck/Peyton and, if GRONK is healthy... I'm picking the Patriots to beat the Seahawks Super Bowl 49 in Phoenix, the same site they lost in 2008 to the Giants.





GO PATS!!! GO NFL!!!!