December 22, 2014

Angry Pirates Win 2014 Championship with blowout victory over Tahiti Loungers

Congrats to Matt Campbell and the Angry Pirates for winning the Dirty D this year with a Win this week over my team, the two time defending champs, Tahiti Loungers.

The matchup isn't even over yet, but I've already lost to Campbell after my team scored a total of 90 points.

The 90 point output is the second lowest in franchise history, and the lowest score I've had in 3 years. This year's most productive fantasy producer- Andrew Luck- was pulled in the game and left me with 0 fantasy points. Unbelievable. There were a handful of other major disappointments (Greg Olsen, Jamaal Charles) but it all added up to a gross week for me and it just wasn't my week/year to win.

The Angry Pirates, however, came to play. With 3 guys going tonight (including AJ Green and Peyton Manning), this team has already scored 97 points is projected for a healthy 147. Campbell jumped out to a 47-0 lead after the Saturday games and never looked back.

The "D" will be passed on for the first time since we got the trophy, and it will be going back to the last champion before me, Campbell. STILL just 3 of us have ever won the league- Dan (the rental guys) Campbell, and myself. #exclusive

Better luck to everyone else involved next year, but for now, all hail the new fantasy king:

December 19, 2014

2014 Dirty D Championship Preview

*Before I write this blog I want to share a quick story. A couple high school guys and I were standing around at work last night and somehow it came up that "having a blog that is synonymous with being a virgin." First, I laughed because talking to high school kids is almost always entertainaing. Secondly I told them about NWOTB and they were back pedaling like crazy! It was funny. I dont think they/people realize that blogs can be about literally anything? Who knows. But I've now been made fun of high schoolers for having a blog. Check that one off the list.

Week 16 is finally here. It's always kinda of weird.... the while season/ Fall builds up to this and then all of the sudden... its over. For 9 months.

But we do have a great matchup for the championship between my team, Tahiti Loungers and Campbells team, Angry Pirates. 

Last Week, I beat Team Ice Cream for the 3rd time this year, on the backs of Dez Bryant and Leveon Bell. It was a curious week as Andrew Luck had a "bad" game, Jamaal Charles screwed over a TON of people, Josh Gordon did nothing again, etc.

In the other semis, the rental guys needed 60+ points from the Bears going into MNF and Jay Cutler was Jay Cutler and the while offense was gross. Dan lost and it ended up not being close, even though it was. The big concern here for the Angry Pirates is the health of DeMarco Murray. He had surgery on his hand on Monday and his status for this upcoming week is cloudy. I expect him to play but you neevr know. Campbell really needs him to play.

If Campbell and I played every week this year:

Week 15 Tahiti Loungers 147, Angry Pirates 114

Week 14 Tahiti Loungers 202, Angry Pirates 156**

Week 13 Tahiti Loungers 181, Angry Pirates 157

Week 12 Tahiti Loungers 125, Angry Pirates 141 

Week 11 Tahiti Loungers 146, Angry Pirates 127*

Week 10 Tahiti Loungers 164, Angry Pirates 135

Week 9 Tahiti Loungers 104, Angry Pirates 145

Week 8 Tahiti Loungers 135, Angry Pirates 187

Week 7 Tahiti Loungers 146, Angry Pirates 125

Week 6 Tahiti Loungers 120, Angry Pirates 140

Week 5 Tahiti Loungers 119, Angry Pirates 102

Week 4 Tahiti Loungers 129, Angry Pirates 142

Week 3 Tahiti Loungers 155, Angry Pirates 111

Week 2 Tahiti Loungers 113, Angry Pirates 140

Week 1 Tahiti Loungers 142, Angry Pirates 149

*Week 12 was the actual week we played head to head

** Week 14 we didnt actually have matchups as the #1 and #2 seed we had BYES

Well it looks like I would have gone 7-8 vs. Campbell... but obv the most important thing is "What have you done for me recently" and THAT is where I look really good. Since Week 10 when my lineup was solidified i have averaged 160 points. Thats unreal. Campbell is averaging a healthy 138 points per game over the same span, which is no slouch. It's easy to see how these two teams made it to the end. Bottom line is I would have beat Campbell head to head in 4 out of the last 5 weeks! Thats the trend.

Andrew Luck vs Peyton Manning 

When you read the names it looks like its close, but this is a big positional advantage for me based on stats from this year and especially the last month. Lets look at good ol Peyton Mannings fantasy output recently:

Week 15- 13 points
Week 14- 2 points
Week 13- 13 points

Over that same time frame, Andrew Luck:

Week 15- 14 points
Week 14- 22 points
Week 13- 34 points

This week Peyton goes into Cincy on MNF. He is still  a dangerous player, but Ill take Luck all day over him. Luck is in Dallas.... points galore to be had on the fast track in Big D. Advantage Tahiti Loungers 

Calvin Johnson & Dez Bryant 
Antonio Brown & AJ Green 

Ummm.. yea. Thats why we made it to the ship. This is about as close as it gets, it's almost a waste of time to analyze these guys. So lets look at matchups

Megatron vs Vikings (8,700 in Draft Kings)
Dez vs Colts  (8,600 in DK)
Brown vs Chiefs (8,800 in DK)
Green vs Denver (8,200 in DK)

These guys are all top 6 options for this week. Without ODBJR considered, these may even be THE top 4 WRs of the week. Impressive.

The one thing Ill say is that out of all these guys, the one i am worried the most about is AJ Green. And that s strictly because Andy Dalton CRUMBLES in prime time TV games. But he is at home and they will need to score, so AJ Green should be good to go. NO ADVANTAGE 

LeVeon Bell & Jamaal Charles  
DeMarco Murray & LeSean McCoy  

Obv the big question here is Murray. I'm writing this assume he plays and takes a full workload, which I dont see why he wouldnt if he plays. Murray is playing the Colts and they can obv be run on (Pats fan See: Jonas Gray 2014 and Legarette Blount 2013 playoffs) so Murray could have a big game. 

LeSean mcCoy was good last week but his back up Chris Polk vultured him and he lost out on THREE TDs. Shadu has a high ceiling but the problem is in the Chip Kelly offense he cant play all the time, Darren Sproles is good, and they pass a lot. So you dont know what youre getting from McCoy but this week vs washington he could possibly have a nice day. 

Leveon Bell is probably the #1 overall pick in next years drafts. Has to be. This kid is an animal. His past 4 games he has fantasy points of 28, 53, 44, and 41. Unreal. I dont know if I can remember a RB that was this dominant. He's basically a lock for 25 points with a crazy high ceiling. This week he has a favorable matchup at home vs KC so LET THE BIG DOG EAT ! 

Jamaal Charles almost fucked me over last week with a gross 6 point performance. The coaches were taking it easy on him which, in retrospect, really helps me out for this week 16. Charles is practicing in full and should get a normal workload back this week. He is playing Pitt which is a solid matchup... it's also pretty cool my two RBs are playing against each other. 

Overall you have to be a psychopath if you pick against the Bell/Charles combo. Advantage Tahiti Loungers 

Antonio Gates vs. Greg Olsen 

Stupid Tight Ends. They all suck this year. G Reg has been better recently and I am very encouraged by the number of looks he is getting. Gates has a good matchup with Denver and with Keene Allen out, Gates may get extra looks. I cant give anyone a real advantage here this week. 

Flex: Jonique Bell vs Mark Ingram 

I'm really sad that I can't start my boy Josh Gordon this week. I just cant. Johnny Football looks too bad and they are on the road. I need points, and J Bell has been a bull recently. Over the past 3 games he has 200+ yards and 3 TDs along with some solid passing game additions. With the lowly Vikings on tap, I just think he has a great chance to score a TD. 

I wont lie. I am playing J Bell because I am perceiving myself to be the "favorite" in the matchup and Ill tend to go with the more conservative option in that case every time. If I was in Campbells shoes and had this decision, I would probably roll the dice on Gordon as his ceiling is much higher. 

Mark Ingram should be a good option this week too at home vs Atlanta. I would be a little worried about Pierre Thomas healthy and at home, but Ingram has been their guy all year. On Fanatsy Pros J Bell is currently the #8 PPR RB and Ingram in the #11 PPR RB. That is close. And I am not confident enough to pick either player over each other so this one is going to be a draw for me, even though if they were the same price in Draft Kings, I'm playing Joique all day. 


My kicker is Ghostkowski and my Defense is Detroit. 

Campbells kicker is Bailey and it looks like he's rolling with Denver D. 

Gotta give me the slight advantage there. 

Overall I am going to have to predict a victory for myself. Just too much star power. Luck is the #1 QB this week. Charles and Leveon are the #1 and #2 RBs. Megatron is the #1 WR. I have too much potential and Campbell will have to put together a flawless week to beat me, I think. Regardless of what happens we will NOT have a new champ this year... and if I win its Tahiti 3-peati !!!!!!

Prediction: Tahiti Loungers 170 Angry Pirates 155

This is what we are playing for:  

December 12, 2014

2014 Semi Finals

We are down to the Final 4 teams left in contention for the D this year.

Last week, Dan and the rental guys HANDLED Bill and the Crossing Guards. HANDLED 190-152.

Dan came out with his best week ever. Studs blowing up everywhere, namely Julio Jones on Monday Night and TY Hilton on Sunday. Those performances piggy backed the huge Thursday Night lead Dan took (Forte, Bennett) and Bill just never had enough to overcome. Even with a monster performance by Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson (and Julien Edelman), the Crossing Guards just couldn't keep up. The 152 points Bill scored and lost with was tied for the second highest  losing score of the year. Sucks to suck. 

In the other quarter final matchup only one team showed up- Team Ice Cream. Sean's team, A Pinch Better, scored a season low 79 points. His next lowest score this season was 104 so this was a huge stinker for APB. How did this happen?

Started Rivers over Cam Newton. A choice that cost him 24 points

Started Ruben Randle. No idea what he was thinking here. Randle ended with 1 point while newly acquired Charles Johnson scored 22 and SSS scored 25.

Started Tre Mason over Andrew Williams and Dan Herron

Started the KC defense in AZ. The previous few weeks, KC had scored 1-5-6 points. The 5 points came IN Oakland.

So yea, Seans bench blew up and his starters sucked. He also learned a hard lesson in where you put your eggs. Having the two best TEs is great, but we should all remember they are still TEs, the most volatile position in fantasy (besides kicker.) Having the best TEs may be a large season long advantage, but in a one week window its not as daunting.   Gronk had a nice game and 22 points but Jimmy Graham, the #1 consensus TE going into the season, dropped just 5 points (after a 0 the week before)

Team Ice Cream on the other hand, just business as usual. Adam's team is just chugging along at a modest pace. He scored 109 this week which is nothing to write home about, but it got the job done.

Lets look at Adams recent scoring history:

Week 14- 109
Week 13- 115
Week 12- 110
Week 11- 116
Week 10-  112

Pretty damn consistent. Somehow Adam managed to win 3 of these 5 matchups, but he is clearly going to need more from his squad in Week 15 and 16 if he wants to win the D.

Anyway, moving on to the Semis, here are the Matchups:

Tahiti Loungers vs Team Ice Cream

Last week my team would have scored over 200 points, which would have been my best week in franchise history. It was kind of a waste, but Im hoping my guys stay hot. Heres a position breakdown for this matchup:

QB- Andrew Luck vs Matt Stafford 

Andrew Luck has been amazing this year, and he's likely to have another 25+ point performance this week vs, Houston, who he hung up 370 yards and 3 TDs earlier this year. Stafford has the Vikings this week who he should be able to pass on as well. There is probably only 1 or maybe 2 weeks Stafford has outscored Luck, and I doubt it happens here.

WRs- Megatron/Dez/Gordon vs Evans/Golden Tate/ Jeremy Maclin 

Adam has gotten a ton of usage out of Mike Evans, who has surprised me and kept up his scoring rate. He's really good. Maclin has a good matchup and we know he is dangerous. Golden Tate hasnt been near as dominant with a healthy Megatron in play, but he is still a goodplayer with upside.

Megatron is Megatron. He is the #1 WR every week when healthy, which he currently is.

Dez Bryant could also go off this week.... He is facing off against Maclin in the same game so it will be fun to watch this one.

Josh Gordon.... what the fuck bro. 3 points last week? Killing me. I have the option to play Joique Bell over Josh Gordon... and its not crazy. Bell has been hot and Gordon is a wild card, ESP with Johnny Football taking over. But... I think Im sticking with Josh. I think Manziel wants to get him the ball. His upside is huge, and lets remember every week hes getting more and more integrated in this offense. This will be his 4th game back... he hasnt scored yet... that's finna change this week I think.


Mine- Jamaal Charles, LeVeon Bell 
Adams- Isiah Crowell, ????? (Donald Brown?)

Blood Bath City. Should I even waste my time with this? I think not. Leveon could/will/has outscore both his RBs. He has scored over 40 in 3 straight games. Not a typo.

TE- Greg Olsen vs Kyle Rudolph or Dwayne Allen 

I dont know who Adam is starting, but neither are great options. Olsen is better, but he has been hot and cold this season. Last week he was hot. Cam Newton is hurt and so who knows what the QB change does... but I am confident in Olsen over anyone Adam can start.


I really don't see how anyone can predict a Team Ice Cream win here. It would be my 3rd victory over Adam THIS YEAR.  Could it happen? Sure. It's fantasy, anything can happen. But this has to be the biggest mis match in Semi Final history. I stated above what Adam has averaged over the past 5 weeks... here is my averages next to his

Week 14 me 202
Week 14 Adam 109

Week 13 me 181
Week 13 Adam 115

Week 12 me 125
Week 12 Adam 110

Week 11 me 146
Week 11 Adam 116

Week 10 me 164
Week 10 Adam 112

As you can see, it ain't close. So Ill be pretty bitter if I lose this week. But I don't think I will. I will predict a Tahiti Lounger win, 165-120. 

the rental guys vs Angry Pirates 

This should be an epic battle. Dan's team is HOT and Campbell's team, as we know, is stacked. Lets go player vs player here:

Peyton Manning vs Johnny Football

This is bad, real bad. For Dan. First, I think Peyton goes off this Sunday. They have been running a bunch, but this game is in San Diego and if the weather is nice, Peyton should shred.

Johnny Football is interesting. I think he will be OK because of the rushing ability, but damn I would NOT want to start him in the fantasy playoffs. It's dumb. Dan has stubbornly rolled with Kaepernick ALL YEAR. Kaep hasn't scored more than 13 points since early October (!!!) and averages 12 points a game. Thats so gross. It's even grosser that Dan rolled with him this whole time. Just last week, Mark Sanchez was available but stubborn Dan refused to admit Sanchez is a better option that his shitty QB combo. We'll see what happens but it could (and iHope it does) lose him this matchup.

Antonio Brown/AJ Green 
TY Hilton/ Julio Jones 

First, The color combo Campbell has is great. Brown and Green are top 5 guys, both healthy, both playing well. Dan has TY Hilton who is equally as beast especially recently.

The X factor here is Julio Jones. Does he play? He had to leave the game the other night and he'll likely be a GTD. If he does, and he is effective, these WRs all wash each other out. They all could blow up and all have immense upside.  If Julio DOESNT play... and I would bet he doesnt if I had to guess, Vincent Jackson would slip into Dans WR2 spot. Hes a couple tiers below these other studs so Dan will be hoping for the best with Julio

Matt Forte/ CJ Anderson vs DeMarco Murray/ LeSean Mccoy 

Whoa. More truck loads of talent here. Forte and Murray have been top 3 backs all year, so they basically cancel each other out. CJ Anderson has been a beast, again I think this is a Peyton game but Anderson still has a great shot to score. LeSean Mccoy should also have a nice game vs Dallas, although it's sad he doesnt catch passes anymore. Overall you have to give a slight edge to Dan here.

TE- Bennett vs Gates

Bennett had his best game of the season last week after B Marsh went down. He is going to be peppered with targets on Monday Night. Denver is not that great vs TEs so Gates should have a nice game too... but Bennett is the hot hand Ill take him this week.

FLEX- Mark Ingram vs... ??? 

If Julio plays, Dan can flex V Jax. But if he doesnt, I have no idea who he is going to play. Jordan Cameron? Reggie Wayne? Andrew Hawkins? Toby Gerhart? Allen Robinson?  I mean, it doesnt matter. I like Ingram more than all these guys. Not close.

After looking at everything its a little easier for me to predict what I originally thought would be a ANGRy PIRATES victory. Obv Julio Jones health is a big factor here. I still think Campbell has too much fire power for Dan to overcome this week... but Dan has scored a shit ton of points over the past 3 weeks so this one should be good.  I think Campbell wins 150-145

December 2, 2014

2014 Dirty D Regular Season Wrap up

The fantasy regular season is over. Here are the final standings for The Dirty D:

Woo Hoo! As you can see I crushed it this year, and I got pretty lucky along the way. Also something to note is Adam's (Team Ice Cream) playoff berth. Adam selected a kicker in the first round but battled though it and made the dance. Great job.

One of my favorite stats that Yahoo provides is your record if you played every team every week. Essentially this takes out the luck factor and is a good (better) indication on how teams fared this year:

1. Angry Pirates  115-27-1
2. Tahiti Loungers 107-36
3. A Pinch Better  92-49-2
4. Crossing Guards  79-63-1
5. the rental guys  72-70-1
6. Team Ice Cream 70-72-1

Look at that... almost the exact order of the standings for the playoff teams

7. Boston Patriots  65-77-1
8. Victorious Secret  62-79-2
9. Eat More Chicken 60-82-1
10. A1 Providers 48-92-3
11. The Godfather 42-99-2
12. Mosey Machine  38-104-1

Lets also look at Avg points AGAINST. This is a brutal stat to lead in. It means you had the worst luck in the league this year.

1. A1 Providers  1,754 (135 avg)
2. The Godfather 1,652 (127 avg)
3. Eat More Chicken 1,594 (123 avg)
4. Boston Patriots 1,586 (122 avg)
5. Crossing Guards 1,560 (120 avg)
6. Victorious Secret 1,523 (117 avg)
7. Mosey Machine 1,515 (116 avg)
8. the rental guys 1,504 (115 avg)
9. A Pinch Better 1,496 (115 avg)
10. Team Ice Cream 1,486 (114 avg)
11. Tahiti Loungers 1,379 (106 avg)
12. Angry Pirates 1,373 (106 avg)

As you can see most of the playoff teams had the lower points against. That's just how it works in fantasy. Angry Pirates scored the most points for and had the least against.

Here is the rank of point differential in the league this year:

1. Angry Pirates +428
2. Tahiti Loungers +400
3. A Pinch Better +199
4. Crossing Guards +82
5. the rental guys +67
6. Team Ice Cream +49
7. Victorious Secret -15
8. Boston Patriots -99
9. Eat More Chicken -175
10. Mosey Machine -229
11. The Godfather -325
12. A1 Providers -382

Again, all the playoff teams finished positive, all the losers finished negative. Harmony.

Here are the 3 highest scores of the season:

187 Angry Pirates Week 7 vs The Godfather

181 Tahiti Loungers Week 13 vs Boston Patriots

177 Boston Patriots Week 8 vs Victorious Secret

And the 3 lowest :

61 The Godfather Week 6 vs Tahiti Loungers

63 Eat More Chicken Week 3 vs Victorious Secret

64 Mosey Machine Week 2 vs Angry Pirates

Some other interesting things: 

Tahiti Loungers, Angry Pirates, A Pinch Better all scored over 100 every week

the rental guys and Crossing Guards only scored under 100 once

Who's hot, Who's not:

Team totals from the past 2 weeks:

329 the rental guys
306 Tahiti Loungers
298 Angry Pirates
278 Crossing Guards
267 A Pinch Better
246  Mosey Machine
227 The Godfather
225 Team Ice Cream
215 Boston Patriots
192 A1 Providers
176 Victorious Secret
172  Eat More Chicken

and... drum roll please.... my predictions for the playoffs as of right now:

Crossing Guards vs the rental guys 

This is going to be a good matchup. The Monday Night factor is in full swing here.... Dan will jump out to a huge lead and Bill will need his Packers death combo to deliver on MNF. The question is how many points will they need to lift Bill to victory? TY Hilton may have a tough game vs Joe Haden, and Kaepernick sucks. We'll see if Dan rolls with him or a different QB. Overall, I think the rental guys are too hot and will put up too many points for the Crossing Guards to come back from. I'll predict a victory for Dan.

A Pinch Better vs Team Ice Cream  

I think Adam is in a real tough spot this week vs Sean. The past 4 weeks Adam has scored 112. 116. 110, 115. He's probably going to be right around there again this week, this isn't the same team that had a beast stretch from Week 6-8, and that wont be good enough to beat Sean, who has a healthy Gronk ready to roll for the playoffs. The Stafford-Tate connection needs to really go off for Adam, and I don't know if that will happen. TB sucks so it could, but then again it could all go to Megatron too. Ultimately Sean just has too many studs for Adam to handle and I predict a fairly easy win for Sean.

In our league we re-seed after each round, so if Sean and Dan win as I predict, the semi finals will be:

Tahiti Loungers vs the rental guys 
Angry Pirates vs A Pinch Better 

At this point, anyone can win either of those matchups. Things change quickly in the NFL so it's tough to preidct the future 2 weeks out, but gun to my head I would have to favor my team vs Dan, and Campbells team vs Sean. This would set up a #1 vs #2 seed final and although I know it will be close and could go either way, I still prefer my roster to anyone elses (including Campbell) so..... SURPRISE... I'm predicting the 3peat from myself/ the Tahiti Loungers. 

Good luck to all teams involved! Should be a fun 3 weeks.