December 31, 2012

Week 17 Fantasy Football final scores

Morris had 200 yards rushing and 3 TDs

James- 341
Dan- 281
Adam- 229

James' Team:

Rodgers- 30
RG3- 16
Luck- 15
AP- 38
Lynch- 13
Morris- 53
Spiller- 18 
Andre- 28
V Jax- 8
S Smith- 10
James Jones- 18
Garcon- 7
Decker- 26
Hernandez- 9
Witten- 18
CHI- 11
SD- 10
Ghost- 4
Prater- 9

Adams team: 

Brees- 31
Newton- 10
Romo- 12
Moreno- 12
Murray- 8
Sproles- 21
Charles- 7
Dez- 11
Green- 4
Colston- 22
Thomas- 27
Cobb- 0
Wayne- 8
T Gonz- 9
Rudolph- 4
San Fran- 12
Denver- 12
Legatron- 7
Graham- 12

Dan's team: 

Brady- 19
Peyton- 26
Wilson- 25
Foster- 19
Rice- 0
Mccoy- 15
McFadden- 7
Welker- 24
Megatron- 12
Marshall- 9
White- 9
Martin- 27
Cruz- 15
Graham- 28
Olsen- 8
Seattle- 8
New England- 21
Janikowski- 3
Tynes- 6

December 30, 2012

Week 17 fantasy football score update


Dan- 281
James- 247
Adam- 198

Dan's team is done at 281. My team is 34 points behind, with RG3, Morris, Garcon, and Witten to play tonight. Adam is 49 points behind me but also has the Cowboy's trio of Romo, Dez and Murray.
It would take a miracle for Dan to win and I highly doubt Adam will be able to outscore me tonight and make up the 49 points.

James Team:

Rodgers- 30
RG3- Playing tonight
Luck- 15
AP- 38
Lynch- 13
Morris- Playing tonight
Spiller- 18 
Andre- 28
V Jax- 8
S Smith- 10
James Jones- 18
Garcon- Playing tonight
Decker- 26
Hernandez- 9
Witten- Playing tonight
CHI- 11
SD- 10
Ghost- 4
Prater- 9

Adams team: 

Brees- 31
Newton- 10
Romo- Playing tonight
Moreno- 12
Murray- Playing tonight
Sproles- 21
Charles- 7
Dez- Playing tonight
Green- 4
Colston- 22
Thomas- 27
Cobb- 0
Wayne- 8
T Gonz- 9
Rudolph- 4
San Fran- 12
Denver- 12
Legatron- 7
Graham- 12

Dan's team: 

Brady- 19
Peyton- 26
Wilson- 25
Foster- 19
Rice- 0
Mccoy- 15
McFadden- 7
Welker- 24
Megatron- 12
Marshall- 9
White- 9
Martin- 27
Cruz- 15
Graham- 28
Olsen- 8
Seattle- 8
New England- 21
Janikowski- 3
Tynes- 6

Week 17 FF challenge James vs Adam vs Dan

Since our league's season ends in week 16, Adam, Dan and I decided to each draft a team for week 17 only to keep it interesting. Here are the draft results:

Roster size: 4 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 Flex, 2 TE, 2 DEF, 2 Kickers

James- Adrian Peterson
Dan- Arian Foster
Adam- Drew Brees

Adam- Cam Newton
Dan- Calvin Johnson
James- Aaron Rodgers

James- RG3
Dan- Brandon Marshall
Adam- Demaryius Thomas

Adam- Dez Bryant
Dan- Tom Brady
James- CJ Spiller

James- Aaron Hernandez
Dan- Russell Wilson
Adam- Knowshon Moreno 

Adam- AJ Green
Dan- Lesean Mccoy
James-Marshawn Lynch

James- Jason Witten
Dan- Roddy White
Adam- Demarco Murray

Adam- Darren Sproles
Dan- Ray Rice
James-Alfred Morris

James- Andre Johnson
Dan- Wes Welker
Adam- Randall Cobb

Adam- Tony Romo
Dan-Victor Cruz
James- James Jones

James- Eric Decker
Dan- Darren McFadden
Adam- Jamaal Charles

Adam- Reggie Wayne
Dan- Doug Martin
James- Vincent Jackson

James- Steve Smith 
Dan- Peyton Manning
Adam- Tony Gonzalez 

Adam- Marques Colston
Dan- Jimmy Graham
James- Pierre Garcon

James- Andrew Luck  
Dan- Seattle D
Adam- San Fran D

Adam- Denver D
Dan- Greg Olsen
James- Chicago D

James- San Diego D
Dan- New England D
Adam-Shayne Graham

Adam-Kyle Rudolph
Dan- Lawrence Tynes
James- Stephen Ghostkowski

James- Matt Prater
Dan- Sebastian Janikowski
Adam- Legatron

James team:

QB: Rodgers, RG3, Luck
RB: AP, Lynch, Morris, Spiller 
WR: Andre, V Jax, S Smith, James Jones
Flex: Garcon, Decker
TE: Hernandez, Witten
Def: CHI, SD
K: Ghost, Prater

Adams team: 

QB: Brees, Newton, Romo
RB: Moreno, Murray, Sproles, Charles
WR: Dez, Green, Colston, Thomas
Flex: Cobb, Wayne
TE: T Gonz, Rudolph
DEF: San Fran, Denver
K: Leagatron, Graham

Dan's team: 

QB: Brady, Peyton, Wilson
RB: Foster, Rice, Mccoy, McFadden
WR: Welker, Megatron, Marshall, White
Flex: Martin, Cruz
TE: Graham, Olsen
DEF: Seattle, New England
K: Janikowski, Tynes

December 28, 2012

My Top 12 Sports Stories from 2012

Well... I've had this blog up and running since 01/05/12 and it is only appropriate to celebrate the 1 year anniversary with a review of all my  top 12 favorite/most influential sports stories from 2012.

Also THANK YOU to all my loyal readers. My goal was to reach 5,000 page views in year 1 and it looks like that is definitely going to happen, once I post this blog. See you in 2013 and I promise to be more active. If there is one thing I request it would be more comments/feedback. I'll write about almost anything so let me know what you want to read about!

12. Replacement Refs in NFL

Did this really happen? Yes, yes it did. The NFL actually used replacement referees for the first 3 weeks of the NFL season. There were dozens of blown calls, phantom calls, and more than a few game outcomes were impacted by the replacement refs. The icing on the cake was the "fail-mary" in which the Packers lost to the Seahawks on a last second play on Monday Night Football. Not only was it blatant pass interference on the offensive player, but the 2 refs standing over the ball each signaled differently as to if the play was a TD or a touchback. This was the last call any replacement ref made; a deal was struck shortly after the debacle in prime time.

11. Lebron Gets his 1st Ring

Anyone out there who didn't think this was inevitable is just plain stupid. The NBA is a star driven league. Lebron is the #1 player. He was bound to get a ring eventually  and no one would be surprised if the Heat and LBJ reel off a couple more in the next few years. Anyone who says Lebron only won because he was alongside D Wade is just flat wrong. LBJ carried his team, dominated, and silenced his critics. He completely took over in Game 6 vs Boston in the Garden, I'm talking like one of the better playoff performances of all time. He's still kind of a douche off the court, but on the court this guy is still one of my heroes. Glad to see him win.

10. Peyton Manning/Tim Tebow

I just felt like I had to touch on the whole situation with these guys in the NFL this year. First, Tebow wins a playoff game for the Broncos in January  Then, he is traded to the Jets because Peyton decided Denver was the place he wanted to play. Since then, Peyton and the Broncos have secured a top seed in the AFC and look to be major players in the playoffs. The Jets failed to use Tebow is every way and not only are they completely embarrassed, but it looks like Tebow's development just got set back 1 full year. I know it looks ugly but how many NFL teams out there have a QB who can their career record is over .500 and have won a playoff game? We'll see if any team is willing to take on Tebow in 2013.

9. Linsanity

Wow, 2nd basketball story on this list and surely to be the last. I just feel like Jeremy Lin owned February 2012, like, OWNED, and because he is such a non-traditional NBA star I really wanted to mention him. Dude graduated from Harvard, was sleeping on his brother's couch, and dominated the league for a span of a few weeks. Anytime Ben and Jerry's make's an Ice Cream flavor out of your name, you know you hit it big time.

8.Olympics in London

 I traditionally turn on the Olympics as soon as they start and try not to miss ANYTHING but this year was different- I barely saw anything live but still followed it via Twitter. It would be irresponsible not to saying something about Michael Phelps, the greatest Olympian of all time. 18 Golds, 2 Silvers, 2 Bronze medals spanning over 3 Olympic Games. Just Crazy. Also, the other star of the Olympics to me was Usain Bolt. He set the 100m Olympic record and earned the gold again, becoming just the 2nd male athlete to repeat as champ in what is widely consider the marquee event of the Summer Olympics

7. Red Sox Suck Fest 

This is such a gross memory I didn't even want to include it. But I had to, because I have a Red Sox tattoo. But I'm not going to waste my time writing about them.

Jamar Taylor: remember the name

6. Boise State wins Las Vegas Bowl.... again

I wanted to make sure I was able to write something about my favorite college football team, Boise State. They won their 3rd consecutive Las Vegas Bowl with a nice win over University of Washington a week ago. Overall it was a good year for Boise State. In what many considered a "bridge" year, the Broncos went 11-2  (both very close loses) and alumni rookie-RB Doug Martin took over the NFL. That dude Jamar Taylor is a player.

5. I'll Have Another 

Anyone who really knows me, knows one of my very favorite things in sports is the Triple Crown chase. Specifically when a horse wins the first 2 legs and loses the Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes. Seriously, I love this shit. And it happens often. This year, I'll Have Another turned the trick by winning the first 2 and was actually scratched and didn't even run in the Belmont. The streak lives on (the last horse to win all 3 was Affirmed in....1978!)

4. US meltdown in the Ryder Cup

This was well-chronicled as I was live-updating my blog while watching this year's Ryder Cup. It sucked that the US lost but this has easily become one of my favorite sporting events. Revenge will be a bitch in 2014 at Gleneagles, Scotland.

3. Bruins eliminated in 1st round, Kings win the Cup

The Bruins Stanley Cup defense ended in overtime on home ice again this season. We lost to the Capitals in Game 7 of the first round. Overall the 2012 NHL playoffs were great. The Devils surprised everyone and challenged the Kings in the Stanley Cup Final. I actually missed the clinching game while I was on my flight to Japan, but the Kings won and UMass' Jon Quick took home the Conn Smythe trophy. It's safe to say that after the Bruins were eliminated, I was rooting for the Kings. I'm also happy the Bruins Cup in 2011 was sandwiched between 2 Western Conference teams (Blackhawks, Bruins, Kings)

2. NHL Lockout 

Not much else needs to be written here except we were all robbed of the pleasure of watching the world's elite talent in 2012. We all missed what could have been Tyler Seguin's greatest season. This would be the #1 story but I'm still holding out hope this thing get's figured out and we are back to playing hockey in early 2013.

1. Patriots lose the Super Bowl

This was rough in so many ways. First, I pretty much guaranteed a Pats victory, assuming the leftover feelings from the 2007 SB would be enough motivation enough to win the game. That wasn't true. To this day I truly believe a healthy Rob Gronkowski would have made the difference, but oh well. Eli had ANOTHER SB winning 2 min drive. there was ANOTHER amazing catch on that drive (Manningham.) And I don't care what anyone says, Welker should have made that catch and sealed the victory. At least in the loss, as a Umass fan, it was nice to see Victor Cruz score a TD in the big game. Also I think I may have been in the worst possible viewing situation for this game- I learned my lesson that you cannot watch games with people like my best friend Paul who cannot pay attention for the full duration of the game. Also there was a super annoying Giants fan in the room who clearly hadn't seen 1 game all year but was acting like the biggest fan in the world. Terrible. Let's hope the Pats make it back to the dance and this year I will be sure to avoid all SB "parties" so I can actually pay attention to he game instead of the youtube video fest going on in the background. Worst Super Bowl ever.

December 26, 2012

Dirty D Championship Match recap

Well, I held off Sean's furious comeback on Sunday night and secured my 2nd Dirty Championship with a 149-142 win. As expected  it was an extremely close matchup. ( I predicted a 6 point victory, I won by 7) I jumped out to an enormous lead but Sean caught up and almost passed me at the very end.

There's no doubt pretty much everyone was rooting for me to lose. And to that I say:

1. Thank you for the motivation
2. Suck it
3. Haters gonna hate
4. Kiss the ring(s)

Anyway here are some notes from the championship matchup:

1. Hakeem Nicks put up a doughnut. 0 points. To be honest, I really thought Sean SHOULD have played Miles Austin over Nicks (as did the consensus of the experts on the internet), but was afraid to reveal these thoughts on my blog in case it convinced Sean to make the change. Austin ended up with 14 points. Not a good feeling.

2. Arian Foster, the #1 overall pick,  had 2 measly points. He fumbled early and coudn't get going against the Vikings. He left the game in the 3rd Quarter with an irregular heartbeat. Thank God this awful/scary performance didn't cost me a championship... that would have truly been an awful way to lose.

3. AP had only 9 points. AP had been beasting so hard that it would be impossible to be disappointed with anything less than 20, but AP only managed 9 points. He still amassed 80+ rushing yards and has an outside shot at the record this week.

4. Aaron Hernandez only made 1 catch on a season low 5 targets. WTF???? This guy was the consensus #1 TE for Week 16 and laid an egg like the rest of the team did in Jacksonville. What a Houdini act. I know Jax does a good job vs TEs, but c'mon. Brady DID miss Hernandez early in the end zone but still, this stat line was wildly confusing.

5. Roddy White & Aaron Rodgers- These are the only 2 players left on my roster from the 2010 championship team I had. How did they do this time around? Roddy White had a MONSTER 41 point game and Rodgers chipped in with a robust 34 points. These guys are bonafide studs and Tahiti Lounger Legends. Roddy White has amazingly been on my roster 55 out of the 64 weeks our league history. He also has never missed a game in his entire career. He is and always will be my Captain.

6. Defenses don't win championships- Sean's defense put up a ridiculous 28 points, his team's highest scorer, but the 17 points from my GB defense was enough to hold off Sean. Chicago had a dominant defense all year, but I proved once again it is a perfectly fine strategy to stream a new defense each week. My total points from my defense all season amassed me 179 points over 15 games which averages out to about 12 points per week. Here are the top scoring defenses from this past season:

Chicago 242
Seattle 204
Denver 200
New England 182

As you can see, Chicago is head and shoulders above everyone, but they are also about to break all sorts of NFL records for scoring TDs. Point is, streaming defenses each week works.

7. Sean RBs went buck-wild. Ray Rice scored 27 and Marshawn Lynch scored 26. Studs.

8. I carried a 149-102 lead going into the night game. Marshawn had a huge 1st half and by halftime he was right on pace to beat me; the score was 149-126. Thankfully the game was a blowout and the clock ran quickly in the 2nd half.

9. The 142 points Sean had was the 5th highest losing score of the season. Sean also lost to me this year when he scored 144 in our regular season matchup.

December 22, 2012

Dirty D Championship Prediction

My previous few posts have detailed write ups of each player in the Dirty D Championship matchup.

I've carefully made each prediction for each player and when added up, I predict the final score to be:

Tahiti Loungers  177

A Pinch Better   171

Hmm, well maybe my predictions were too generous, for both teams, but it wouldn't shock me if our matchup was this high (Even though these would be season high totals for both teams haha). I think it will be a close game, and what's going to be really weird is my players are almost completely done after the 1pm games, while Sean's team has nearly everyone going at 4pm or later.

Win or lose, I cannot be disappointed with my season. I've assembled one of the best rosters I've ever seen in a 12 team league and that's all I can do. Sean can establish himself as one of the greatest owners in league history with a win, and I'm sure he is hoping to avoid another championship loss like in the inaugural 2009 season!

May the best team win

Championship WRs, Flex and DEF Battle

So far I have predicted the QB and RB match-ups of my championship match with Sean Cosgrove. Below is the rest of the lineups. I'm running out of time to write all this stuff up so I had to condense the rest into this one post. Too bad I don't get paid for his stuff. 

Predicted score so far:

Tahiti Loungers 80 (Rodgers, AP, Foster)
A Pinch Better 65 (Kaepernick, Rice, Lynch)

Tahiti Loungers- Demaryius Thomas & Roddy White

Thomas and the Broncos are playing the Browns which means Joe Haden may be a factor in this matchup. I read somewhere that this year Haden has stayed anchored on one side of the lineup and it is most likely going to be on Decker, actually, instead of Thomas. Manning and Thomas should be connecting a bunch this week, and even if Haden ends up staying on Thomas, I like Thomas to show up big this weekend. He was so close to a monster game last week but ended up with only 5 fantasy points. 

Roddy also scored in the single digits last week, he was banged up with a knee issue but still played like 80% of the snaps. His team went up huge early and he wasn't needed so he was very quiet. Roddy has had two other single digit fantasy games but he responded well both times, with a 20 & 28 point efforts the nest week. The Lions and Falcons play tonight in what is likely to be a shootout, so Roddy is  going to get looks. Julio Jones is probably the better Falcon WR play this week because he is healthier and he explodes in road games. Hopefully this is one of those games where Roddy and him BOTH go off. White only has 1 TD since week 6, so it's tough to predict a score, but hopefully that just means he's due!

White Prediction: 7 catches, 85 yards = 15 points
Thomas Prediction: 6 catches, 120 yards, 1 TD = 26 points 

A Pinch Better- Steve Smith & Hakeem Nicks 

Steve Smith has been on fire recently, with 18, 19, and 25 fantasy point in the past 3 weeks. Cam the man has really brought the vet back into the fantasy WR1 radar, especially with a plus matchup this week vs the Raiders. The raiders give up a ton in the air and I expect a score from Smith this week, 'm just hoping it's more like a 15 yarder than a 80 yarder. I'm really hoping the Panthers pull way away and just run the ball but I have a bad feeling Smith is going to burn me this weekend cuz I've talk a ton of shit about him in the past. Sigh. 

Hakeem Nicks' 7 points from last week can be thrown out because the Giants just didn't come to play. The important thing here is Nicks is healthy, and when he's healthy, he's dangerous. Baltimore got destroyed by Peyton manning last week and theres a solid chance his little bro Eli does it to them again this week. Nicks and Cruz are a dangerous duo, impossible to stop both. Cruz' production has taken a major hit since Nicks cam back from his injury, it's anyone's guess as to who's night it will be. 

Smith Prediction: 7 catches,  135 yards, 1 TD = 29 points
Nicks Prediction: 4 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD = 15 points

Tahiti Loungers- Leshoure, Hernandez, K, GB Def

Leshoure- I really wanted to avoid playing Leshoure, but I am forced to because David Wilson cannot be trusted with Bradshaw back and Josh Gordon is probably going to have Champ Bailey all over him. The Flacons HAVE been fairly generous on the ground this season, and Leshoure is no doubt the goal line back in pretty high scoring offense, so he is not a horrible play. Leshoure comes out on 3rd downs for Bell, and if the Lions fall behind early and big, Leshoure could be on the sideline all night. This would be my nightmare, but I think I have to roll w/ Leshoure. He is a TD machine so I'm banking on 1 tonight, dreaming on 2, and any yards on top of that would just be gravy.

Prediction: 65 rushing yards, 1 TD, 1 catch, 8 receiving yard = 13 points

Hernandez- I drafted Hernandez with the last pick in the 4th round and could not be happier with him right now. It sucked having him hurt for most of the season but my eyes were always on the Week 16 prize and I knew if he could get healthy by the fantasy playoffs he could dominate. Now, with Gronk out, Hernandez has become the focal point of the Pat's offense. The past 3 weeks he has been unbelievable, averaging over 20 points per game. He has scored in 3 straight and has been a matchup nightmare for teams, even in the red zone. I'm leaning on A Hern to beast mode this weekend vs the Jags. 

Prediction: 7 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD = 22 points 

GB Defense-They have been playing well recently and facing Jake Locker and a Titans team that's prone to turn the ball over. If they can prevent a long run from CJ?K they should be able to hold the Titans to very few points. 

Prediction: 13 points

Kicker- Suisham  has been solid all year w/ Big Ben, and I am just hoping this division game vs the Bengals is one of those FG back and forth games. 

Prediction: 9 points

A Pinch Better- Moreno, Greshem, K, CHI Def

Moreno- Man, this was a great pick up by Sean a few weeks ago. Since Moreno has taken over the duties in the Broncos backfield, he has made owners very happy, especially the past couple with weeks with two 20 point performances. This week the Broncos figure to roll against the Browns so not only is their an excellent chance Moreno scores a TD, but he will probably get a bunch of clock killing carries in the 2nd half as well. 

Prediction: 120 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 20 receiving yards = 25 points

Greshem- Greshem started this season slow but has been a lot better in the 2nd half. He doesn't have huge potential and is pretty reliant on a TD to make for a good play. He struggled vs Pit in Week 7, but I highly doubt he only puts up 4 points again. This is probably Sean's weakest player this week and if he somehow blows up I am in major trouble. 

Prediction: 4 catches, 50 yards  = 9 points 

CHI Defense- The best D all season has a great matchup this week, vs the lowly AZ cardinals. I started the DET defense vs the Cards last week and they disappointed, but I do not think the Bears will have any trouble shutting down Lindley. I hope they don't have multiple scores.  

Prediction: 16 points

Kicker- Prater  is a solid option, good leg on a good offense in a game where he should get a bunch of chances 

Prediction: 12 points

December 21, 2012

Championship RB2 Battle

So far I have analyzed the QB and RB1 matchups of my championship match with Sean Cosgrove. Below is my RB2 breakdown. Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster are obviosuly very, VERY strong RB2s. This is a big part of why these teams got here. Lets see who may have the advantage this weekend

Predicted score so far:

Tahiti Loungers 51 (Rodgers, AP)
A Pinch Better 46 (Kaepernick, Rice)

Tahiti Loungers- Arian Foster

Arian Foster is the best weekly bet for a TD in the NFL today. He has scored in all but 2 games this year. He is a powerful, down-field runner in a run-heavy offense. I selected him 1st overall and he has delivered very nicely all year for me. This week Foster is facing off against the Vikings (AP vs who have given up the a slew of points to dangerous RBs this year. Let's look at some of the other power RBs who have feasted on the Vikings recently-

Week 7- Larod Stephens Howling, 104 rush yards, 1 TD, 4 catches, 45 yards = 24 points
Week 8- Doug Martin, 135 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD = 37 points
Week 9- Marshawn Lynch, 124 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 26 yards = 24 points
Week 12- Michael Bush, 60 rush yards, 2 TDs, 1 catch, -1 yards = 19 points
Week 14- Matt Forte, 85 rush yards, 6 catches, 34 yards = 17 points
Week 15- Steven Jackson, 73 rush yards, 8 catches, 73 yards = 22 points

As you can see RBs have scored a ton of points recently against the Vikings. Week 13 they played against the Packers who pretty much do not have a running game. Week 11 they had a bye and Week 10 they played the combo of Bell/Leshoure who combined had over 20 fantasy points. Foster should have no problem gaining yardage and I feel like this may be one of those weeks where he bows multiple times. It looks like a 20 point effort is almost a guarantee as long as he stays healthy.

Prediction: 110 rush yards, 2 TDs, 3 catches, 35 yards = 29 points

A Pinch Better- Marshawn Lynch 

Man, this is one scary guy to play against. Lynch has been in beast mode for quite some time now, he currently sits 6th amongst running backs in our league scoring for the year. He has gone over 100 rush yards 8 times this year including the past 2 weeks, where he has a total of 21 rushes for 241 yards which comes out to a eye-popping 11.5 YPC. This week's defense, San Francisoco, is a lot more stout than the run defenses of the Bills and Cardinals, however Marshwan Lynch owns the 49ers, somehow. They give up the least amount of points to RBs in the league, but Marshawn was able to crack 100 when these teams met in Week 7. The 49ers have only allowed 4 rushing TDs all year (and 2 were to Danny Woodhead last week, which barely counts) so the chances that Marshawn doesn't find pay dirt are working in my favor .This is a huge game in prime time on Sunday night and I personally think Marshawn is going to show up in a major way. Russell Wilson, like RGIII, is capable of the "read-option" offense and I think Lynch will probably continue to benefit from Wilson's coming out party.

Prediction: 140 rush yards, 2 catches, 15 yards = 19 points

December 20, 2012

Championship RB1 Battle

Yesterday I went over in detail the QB battle for the Dirty D championship match between Sean and myself. Today I am going to continue to do some analysis, including stat predictions for all positions.

Predicted score so far:

Tahiti Loungers 22 (Rodgers)
A Pinch Better 21 (Kaepernick)

Tahiti Loungers- Adrian Peterson

I'm SO glad I have AP right now. That's an incredibly obvious statement, but what I really mean is I'm glad he is on my team so I can use this blog as way to discuss AP's historic run. Before I go into the matchup for this week, let's take a look at some of the most amazing stats I've found during this epic 2K run by AP.

-AP has 1,812 rushing yards and 11 TDs. He has carried the ball 289 times which means his average rush is 6.27 yards. Keep in mind he has done this after tearing his ACL and MCL last December (less than a year ago)

-AP has the same amount of rushing yards since Week 7 (1,313) as Arian Foster has had all season.

-Since Week 9, in our league, these are AP's fantasy point totals- 40 (SEA) 34 (DET) 17 (CHI) 41 (GB) 36 (CHI) 39 (STL)

-The past 8 weeks AP has averaged 164 rushing yards, he has 1,313 yards in that time and that's the BEST 8 GAME STRETCH IN NFL HISTORY. Those 1,313 rushing yards are more than 6 teams have all season.

-AP is currently on a 8 game streak of rushing for 100+ yards

-AP has 909 yards after contact this year. Distant 2nd in the league is my boy Doug Martin with 572

-AP is currently tied with Barry Sanders for the NFL record of 7 rushes that have gone for over 50 yards. He has two 82 yards TDs and 20 runs of 20 yards or more. Next closest guy in the league is CJ Spiller with just 11.

-The Vikings are dead last in passing yards per game at 168. The fact that AP is breaking records with absolutely NO passing attack is just unbelievable.

-01/01/07 Never forget. AP in his last college career game only managed 77 yards on 22 carries in a loss to Boise State in OT of the Fiesta Bowl. Had to throw this in here, sorry.

Alright. Enough drooling. Lets get into his Week 16 matchup @ Houston

Houston, unfortunately for me, has a pretty good run defense. They have shut down almost every opposing RB this year. However, as of late, they have not been as dominant as they were towards the beginning of the season. Vick Ballard ran for 105 yards last week on 18 carries. The week before was the crazy Pats blow out game so I'm not even going to look at that one (Rildey ran well). Before that CJ?K had a very slow game that resulted in only 50 rushing yards, even though the first time these teams met CJ put up 141 against this defense. I think AP is going to be OK because this Texans defense will mostly likely have a very hard time bringing him to the ground. I don't know if he is going to break 200 yards again, but It's clear that this man is on a mission and he is definitely match up proof.

Prediction: 28 carries, 158 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 27 yards = 29 fantasy points

A Pinch Better- Ray Rice

A lot of people have viewed Ray Rice as a disappointment this year... those people are clowns. Ray Rice currently sits 4th in the RB standings for our league, 11 points ahead of T rich but 30 points behind Dougie Fresh, who I dubbed Ray Rice 2.0 back in April. 

Anyway these are Ray Rice's totals from the past 5 weeks:

Week 11 vs PIT- 40 rush yards, 5 catches, 53 receiving yards = 14 points
Week 12 vs SD- 97 rush yards, 8 catches, 67 receiving yards = 23 points
Week 13 vs PIT- 78 rush yards, 1 TD, 1 catch, 5 receiving yards = 14 points
Week 14 vs WAS- 121 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 15 receiving yards = 24 points
Week 15 vs DEN- 38 rush yards, 3 catches, 3 receiving yards = 6 points

A couple things stand out here. Last week was a complete dud and the first game with the Ravens new Offensive coordinator. The Ravens got blown out at home and Ray Rice probably never had a chance to get going. Part of the reason the Ravens hired a new Offensive Coordinator is because Cam Cameron wasn't incorporating Ray Rice into the scheme as much as people would like. This scares the hell out of me. I really think the Ravens are going to make a point of getting Ray Rice the ball this week vs the Giants. It's a big game for both teams, especially considering the Giants ALSO got blown out (actually shut out) on the road in Atlanta last week. 5 running backs have gone over 100 rushing yards against the Giants this year, but they do an pretty solid job of prevent rushing TDs. It's safe to say I am more worried about Rice in the passing game than on the ground. I think he has a nice bounce back game this week.

Prediction: 19 carries, 87 rushing yards, 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, 1 TD = 25 points. 

December 19, 2012

Championship QB Battle

It all comes down.... to this. The 2012 Dirty D championship has come down to the 2 most winning players in league history. We've both been here before, with very different results. Sean lost in the inaugural season to Dan by a mere 11 points, and then a year later in 2010 I defeated Adam in the ship by a whopping 41 points. This season Sean and I faced off in Week 4 and I squeaked by with a 160-144 victory. Hopefully this weekend's Championship match is high scoring and closely contested like that one was. A lot of roster moves have been made since then, (You wont see Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Victor Cruz, or Eli Manning this weekend) so I wanted to break down this matchup, player by player. 

Today I will break down each team's QB. 

Tahiti Loungers-  Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers proved last week he is matchup proof. This week he faces a pretty generous defense in Tennessee, however over the past 5 games the pass defense has actually been very good; allowing an average of less than 10 fantasy points per game. Of course these games were against Sanchez (-1) Luck (7) Schaub (17) Henne (16) and Tannehill (2), so we shouldn't put TOO much stock into this recent good play.  

Rodgers himself will probably be without top deep-threat Jordy Nelson once again. That barely matters, as Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Greg Jennings should be more than capable of picking up the slack. Rodgers had played pretty pedestrian before his 25 point output this past week, mostly due to offensive line issues. I am hoping they have figured it out because with even just a little bit of time, Rodgers can do major, major damage to this defense. The run defense on Tennessee is actually pretty stout; they haven't given up 100+ rushing yards since week 9, and have only had opposing RBs eclipse 100 three times this year. They have shut down Arian Foster (144 yards total in 2 games) and even held AP to just 88 yards back in Week 5. Point is: they are good against the run. The Packers are going to struggle running the ball and will likely air it out a lot. My main concern here is a blow out. The Titans may get down early and just give up, so I'll be looking for Rodgers to score big, early- before a potential run heavy game plan or before he gets yanked for the back up. Also I am not concerned at all about Rodgers' ankle. 

Prediction: 285 yards, 3 TDs, 15 rush yards, 1 interception = 22 fantasy points. 

A Pinch Better- Colin Kaepernick

Look, everyone knows I love Colin Kaepernick. He kinda beat up Boise St during his college career. He beat the Pats the other night on SNF in Foxboro in December. If he completes the tri-fecta and beats me in the fantasy championship I'm just going to have to start hating the guy. 

Last week Kaepernick went bananas in the first half vs the Pats. His final stat line was 4 TDs and 216 yards to go along with 1 pick totaling 24 fantasy points. The Pats are much improved in their secondary and so that 24 points is pretty damn good. The 5 games Kaepernick started before last week he averaged 17 points. That's pretty much the floor for him, which is exceptional. He is a very mobile QB so the threat to score a longer rushing TD is always there. He has not scored a rushing TD yet this season but he put up 80+ yards rushing a few weeks ago. That's what scares me the most about this guy- his legs. Also, he has some crazy rapport with Michael Crabtree. For whatever reason, those 2 dudes are in sync and firing on all cylinders (which sucks, because I traded Crabtree right when Kapernick took over.) 

Luckily for me, Kaepernick has a tough matchup this week. Playing IN Seattle is very tough, although so is playing in Foxboro in December and that didn't seem to phase him.  Seattle has done a great job vs opposing Qbs this season... the only 2 guys to break 20 fantasy points against them this season are Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. Recently, though, the defense has been slightly more generous. The thing I am most concerned about is the corner back play for the Seahawks. The reason the defense has done great all season is that these guys in the secondary were playing shut down football. Starting corner Brandon Browner in unfortunately suspended for this game and the other corner, Richard Sherman, will likely miss the game as well (His appeal is being heard on Friday.) Also, both BACK UP corners are hurt. Walter Thurmond III and Marcus Trufant are both battling injuries and may miss this week's game. Sucks. No one wants to face Kaepernick with 3rd string corners out there, but I am. Sigh. Let's just hope I'm over estimating on Kaepernick this week. 

Prediction: 255 yards, 1 TD, 30 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 Int = 21 fantasy points.