October 31, 2014

Week 9 Power Ranks

Week 9 is already here but before we dive into this week's power ranks let's take a look at Week 8.

Week 8 was a MONSTER week in the NFL..... The average score in our fantasy league was 136.5 which means all the people who scored a ton of points and feel great about yourself.... check yo self. Virtually everyone scored a ton this week. The Godfather only scored 90 points, which represents just 5.5% of the points scored in the league this week. That's crazy low. This week's point leader, Angry Pirates, captured 11.4% of the points... which is a very high mark.

With last week's high scores, someone was bound to have a "bad loss"... where they score a lot of points but don't win. That team this week was Victorious Secret- the 152 point loss was the highest scoring loss of the season so far. To find a loss this bad, you'd have to go back to Week 13 of last year when Kait scored 161 and lost to A Pinch Better (171-161.)

That same week, Week 13 last year, was the week Campbell put up the league record for points in a single week: 227. He beat Dan,  the rental guys, 227-106.  Without looking it up I can safely assume that is the league record for margin of victory in a singe week (121).

We've reached a benchmark. The season is half over.  The current league standings show you how well the teams have performed the first half of this year, but let's break it down further.

First, here are the updated ALL TIME Standings/Stats. This is 4.5 years of data:

Next let's look at the past full year, so the first half of this year and the second half of last year. Not everyone plays every week at the end of the season, so I just used everyone's last 8 games and added them to this year's first 8 games:

Now, for the most relevant data set, let's see what the standings from the past 3 weeks only would look like:

And this week's version of Power Ranks:

1. Angry Pirates (Last Week: 1)

As I mentioned earlier Campbell had a huge week. Out of all his actual players, LeSean McCoy was the low man at 12 points but every other position player scored over 20. That is unreal. None of it was especially surprising, save for maybe the HUGE game by Ingram, but when ALL your players play well, this is what happens. A boat load of points.

Although this is my #1 team right now, I highly doubt Campbell's team can keep pace with itself for a couple reasons, but mainly because DeMarco Murray CANT be as good in the second half as he was in the first, he cant be. As hard as it may be to do, if I owned Murray, I would trade him. For sure. Because in 3 weeks when he gets hurt EVERY single Murray owner is going to be kicking themselves for not selling high on an injury prone guy when they could have. Fantasy is a "roll the dice" type game, so of course many owners will take the chance that Murray stays on the field, but I certainly would not be one of them.

2. Tahiti Loungers (Last week: 2)

8 wins in a row is the new league record! Yay. The previous winning streak record was KAIT in 2011 when she started 7-0. She tied in week 8 and then lost in week 11, so she still holds the record for the longest UNBEATEN streak- 10 games. (Although technically I finished last year 3-0 so I am 11-0 in my past 11 weeks but that's neither here nor there. )

Anyway I am in full playoff mode. Would it be nice to go undefeated? Of course. There are 3 really good teams this year, so it's not even guaranteed I will get a BYE, so yes I want to win every week. BUT.... I don't really care about any week until week 15 (or 14 if I don't get the bye.) That's why I traded for Calvin Johnson. That's why I've burnt a roster spot on Josh Gordon ALL YEAR. That's also why I am considering not using a D/ST this week.

That's right... I may leave the spot open. I have some bye week issues, including with my D/ST, Detroit. So now I have to make room to carry another D/ST, because there is no chance I drop Detroit. Detroit is the consensus #1 D/ST for the rest of the year, but more specifically they should easily be a top option Week 15 and 16 when they play Minnesota and Chicago. If I want to make room I would need to drop wither Tony Romo or Zach Ertz... Romo I was planning on using next week with Luck on Bye, and Ertz I feel is too good to drop. Too much potential to be a difference maker in Weeks 15-16.

So I may leave the spot open. I'm not sure yet. I am playing the 2nd biggest bunny in the league, so I may be able to do it, but I for sure would be PISSED if my first loss came from the result of not playing a D/ST. We'll see what happens.

3. A Pinch Better (Last Week: 3)

This team is awesome minus the trashy RB situation. Sure, Sean has Marshawn Lynch... but Lynch's past 3 weeks he's scored 7-8-7. I'm concerned. Do I think it's panic time? Not yet. But it may be getting close. It's a near given that Lynch is NOT going to be a Seahawk next year. That causes problems for fantasy owners, because the Seattle staff may look to get their younger backs of the future more involved now. I'm more of the belief that Lynch will be fine... although they have been distributing the ball to other people, Lynch is still the go to guy. The Seahwaks will need him to play well down the stretch, and he has plenty of motivation. He may be more of a back end RB1, but he's still an RB1. This week especially, he may have a nice bounce back game. At home vs Oakland.... maybe this week the Seahawks make extra effort to get him back on track.

The rest of the RBs on this roster is the chief concern. Tre Mason's role just isn't defined enough, Andre Williams will be irrelevant in a week from now, Steven Jackson is awful, and Storm Johnson is not playable.

But despite being weak at an important position.... One HUGE thing for this team has been the resurgence of Gronk. What a MONSTER this guy has been the past couple weeks. We forget sometimes how dominant he is when healthy.

Let's look back at the trade that Sean made with dan to acquire Gronk. It happened on October 2, just before Week 5:

Sean traded away Percy Harvin, Vincent Jackson, and Steven Jackson
and recieved
Rob Gronkowski and Eric Decker

I'll go into the detial of this further down in Dan's write up, but WOW. This trade is a huge reason this team is a weekly contender for top score and currently has the inside track on the Angry Pirates for the 2nd BYE.

4. Team Ice Cream (Last Week: 5)

Adam has the un-sexiest "good" team of all time. Golden Tate has been a gift from the Gods for Adam... "the best hand in the NFL" has been a top 3 WR in the league for the past month. Demaryius, Hilton, and Golden Tate. HOWEVER.... Adam doesnt have Golden for this week and unfortunately, Tate is one of the biggest "sell highs" at the moment. When Megatron comes back, the targets will go down big time, and G Tate will be relegated to WR2 duties at best.

Adam just traded away Jeremy Hill for Matt Stafford. So, while Golden Tate may be a "sell high" guy, Stafford is certainly a "buy low" person of interest. His numbers should jump back up to top 5 when Megatron returns... which is next week.

And this folks, is EXACTLY why you should stockpile RBs in the draft. Adam selected Hill in the
7th round of the draft as his 4th RB. It's a real-life example of value-based drafting... Adam had multiple holes in his "starting" lineup but the value pick was in the RB stash. A perfect example of a guy that needs to be picked before anyone selects D/STs, etc.

5. Boston Patriots (Last Week: 10)

Tom Brady first four games: 35 points
Tom Brady last four games: 110 points

That right there is reason enough for a big bump up the ranks. Mr. B's team has the bye-week blues this time, but this is a team to watch in the second half of the season. The RB situation is vastly improving....Rashad Jennings healthy soon. Reggie Bush healthy soon. Pierre Thomas healthy soon. Taliaferro arrow is pointing up. Crowell is cooking on the bench.

If one of two of these guys hit, Mr B is going to make noise. His WR duo of Sanders-Cobb is one of the best in the league. Add in Brandon Marshall and Brandin Cooks and you have 3 or 4 WRs that could all be top 20 ROS.

The TE situation is not ideal (Witten) but this year TE has been a disaster. So it's not like Mr. B is at a big disadvantage EVERY week.. but Witten isn't a good TE and Mr. B should be actively looking to upgrade.

Mr. B also get's a little lucky this week drawing the Crossing Guards on the week with no Jordy/Rodgers.

6. the rental guys (Last week: 7)

I mentioned above in Sean's write up that he acquired Gronk and I'd expand on teh trade here.

Since the trade

Gronk- 94 points. Most by far for any TE, 7th highest for any non-QB

Decker- 38 points

Percy- 16 points

V Jax- 36 points

S-Jax- 34 points

Ummm  #traderape  .... maybe the biggest rape in league history. And this isn't a "hindsight is 50/50" situation... the trade raised plenty of eyebrows when it was made. Again, why would you draft Gronk in the 2nd round if you are going to trade him for dog shit right before he gets healthy? Why are you trading away a difference maker at a thin position for mediocre depth at THE deepest potion?

Dan used V Jax twice (24 points, 2 points). Dan used Percy twice ( 6 points, 3 points) He never used S Jax and dropped him,

Awful strategy here. I don't know if Dan changed his mind on Gronk or what.... but I have a feeling this move will end up being the indirect death of this team.

But of course, Dan is lucky again this year. "If the rental guys had played every team in the league each week, they would be 42-45-1." But instead he has a winning record.

Forte has been the fantasy MVP thus far. Maybe you can make a case for Murray, but Forte was drafted high and has lived up to those high expectations. Dan also made a great pick up a couple weeks ago with the Robinson's for the Jags. Denard looks like a solid play for the rest of the year but especially a great plug in for BYE weeks, like this week with Forte resting, and Allen Robinson has producing consistently all year.... I'm not sure if he has cracked Dan's lineup yet but he should/will soon.

Looking at Dan's schedule- it's brutal. It;s a good thing he has 5 wins and probably only needs 2 more because this is a tough run:

Angry Pirates
Team Ice Cream
Boston Patriots
A Pinch Better
Victorious Secret

That's really hard. With a lower point total, Dan is going to need to find a way to win 2, maybe 3 of these game to make the playoffs. It will be close.

7. Victorious Secret (Last Week: 8)

Scoring 152, losing, and dropping in the power ranks. Life aint fair. This team is 4-4, but currently on a 3 week losing streak. The trade of Peyton Manning is probably going to work out for Kait... a big reason for that is the play of Carson Palmer. He averages 18 points per game... and throws the rock about 40 times a game. The Bruce Arians offense in AZ is producing points for the QB... and although Kait had downgraded from Peyton to Palmer, she easily is making up for that with the other pieces of the trade.

Arian Foster has been a beast. I called him a reach, you called him a reach, everyone thought Kait reached for him. But no, Foster has lived up to the billing. He is a top 3 back in almost every measurable... and although there's a solid chance he may get hurt at some point, it should be fun to ride him while it lasts. Plus Kait has Alfred Blue rostered in case of emergency.

8. A1 Providers (Last week: 4)

If you take out Pauls 134 point loss in Week 6, he is averaging 102 points in October. That's not great at all... but I still like this Roster. How can you not? MOVING FORWARD, for the rest of the season:

Brees is a top 5 QB
Julio is probably going to be a top 5 WR
Lamar Miller is a solid RB2
Frank Gore is a solid RB2 when healthy
Mike Wallace is a solid WR2
Alshon Jeffrey is a solid WR2 with WR1 upside
Delanie Walker is a back end TE1

That lineup right there isnt bad. It's not the best ever, but it's better than the 2-6 record Paul has put up so far. This team will likely miss the playoffs, but set's up as a great "dream crsuher" down the stretch. Paul can put a HUGE dent in Jenna's playoff chances this week. He can end my streak next week when we play (If I beat Beckerman.) He can make it harder for Campbell to get a bye, if he beats him in Week 12.

And the best one of them all... Paul plays Adam in Week 13. That could be huge. Right now, loosley projecting Adam's sched:

Currently 4-4

Week 9 Godfather
Week 10  Rental Guys
Week 11  Jenna
Week 12  James
Week 13  Paul

Adam probably need to win 3 of these games for the playoffs. You tell me what weeks he may win? Now that Im looking at it, this week is hugely critical for Team Ice Cream. You HAVE to win the matchups you should win.

9. Eat More Chicken (Last Week: 6)

Gio Bernard not playing well/ getting hurt
Julius Thomas falling back to earth
Awful trade she made

have combined to make Jenna one of the weaker teams in the league right now... but she has stayed afloat thanks to great play from Sammy Watkins and Ronnie Hillman.

Hillman might end up being a really good guy to own. He has a lot of upside and may even keep the job for the rest of the season... that's what everyone seems to think.

Despite that, Jenna still got rocked in the trade where she sent Demaryius Thomas to Sean for Welker, Alfred Morris, and Hillman,

Since the trade (3 weeks):

D Thomas- 93 points

W Welker- 17 points

A Morris- 26 points

R Hillman- 54 points

So on the surface I suppose it looks OK because of Hillman... but not really.

Jenna hast started Alfred Morris once. Even this week, with Gio hurt, she opted to trade for Jeremy Hill instead of just playing Alfred Morris..... why? if you dont like the guy, why trade for him? if you do like him, why not play him this week over Jeremy Hill?

Welker is awful and doesn't deserve a roster spot

and as I said Hillman has been solid. But when you trade away DEMARYIUS THOMAS for Ronnie Hillman, you're doing it wrong.

So this team is doomed. Currently 3-5 and still has to play Sean, Campbell, Adam, Mr, B, and Paul . GG.

10. Crossing Guards (Last Week: 9)

This team sucks this week. Why? because Bill is missing the only great part of his team... Rodgers/Jordy connection. Justin Forsett has been good and Jerrick McKinnon remains an intriguing player, but EVERYONE else on this team sucks.

Edelman- Forgot how to catch the ball
Crabtree- His team forgot he was good
Asiata- Awful
F Jax- Hurt and I hate him
Andre Holmes- Plays for the Raiders
Jordan Reed- Meh
Mohamed Sanu- Meh

I'd be shocked if Bill made the playoffs, even though he is currently 3-5.... even with the cake walk schedule the rest of the way. Let's assume a Loss this week, that would put Bill at 3-6 and needing to win at least 3 of 4 of his remaining games vs:


Those last two matchups are a dream.... Can Bill grind out the schedule until he gets to Week 12? Time will tell but I think No.

11. Mosey Machine (Last Week: 11)

Beckerman had a monster week in week 8, scoring his 2nd highest of the season- 112 points!

No seriously, this team and The Godfather are in a dead heat head to head race to last place. Beckerman has the advantage thanks to the mythical 134 point victory he had in Week 1. Take out that week and this year Beck is averaging 91 pathetic points. So far it is one of the worst performances in league history...While Beck is only 2 games out of the last playoff spot he has a terribly low point total, and he is playing both myself and Campbell before the end of the season.

Personnel-wise, when your best player in DeAndre Hopkins, you know you have issues. Shane Vereen might have a nice week vs the Broncos and Ben Tate is usually a solid play... but these guys tend to disappoint. I'm starting both in another league.... it's not the ideal 1-2 RB combo.

12. The Godfather (Last Week: 12) 

Woof. Where to start? Michael Floyd's doughnut? The TB RB mess? Jordan Cameron's injury? Bye Week issues?

It seems as if nothing is going right for Abe this year, for the second year in a row. Over his past 25 matchups, Abe is an abysmal 5-20.  More specific to this year, Abe's highest output is his 111 points from Week 1.

Abe is sitting at 1-7 and as hard as it is to believe, he isn't eliminated yet. He could win out and finish 6-7. I think a 6-7 team may sneak in this year.... obviously the chances Abe wins out is very. very slim, but it's not impossible... It starts one week at a time and this week Abe is playing Adam. Of course, Abe has major bye week issues, but has managed to scrap together a solid squad vs Team Ice Cream. We'll see if Abe can stay alive this weekend.


I'll do this each week. My current projected playoff bracket:

1. Tahiti Loungers
2. A Pinch Better
3. Angry Pirates
4. Team Ice Cream
5. Boston Patriots
6. the rental guys

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