December 12, 2014
2014 Semi Finals
We are down to the Final 4 teams left in contention for the D this year.
Last week, Dan and the rental guys HANDLED Bill and the Crossing Guards. HANDLED 190-152.
Dan came out with his best week ever. Studs blowing up everywhere, namely Julio Jones on Monday Night and TY Hilton on Sunday. Those performances piggy backed the huge Thursday Night lead Dan took (Forte, Bennett) and Bill just never had enough to overcome. Even with a monster performance by Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson (and Julien Edelman), the Crossing Guards just couldn't keep up. The 152 points Bill scored and lost with was tied for the second highest losing score of the year. Sucks to suck.
In the other quarter final matchup only one team showed up- Team Ice Cream. Sean's team, A Pinch Better, scored a season low 79 points. His next lowest score this season was 104 so this was a huge stinker for APB. How did this happen?
Started Rivers over Cam Newton. A choice that cost him 24 points
Started Ruben Randle. No idea what he was thinking here. Randle ended with 1 point while newly acquired Charles Johnson scored 22 and SSS scored 25.
Started Tre Mason over Andrew Williams and Dan Herron
Started the KC defense in AZ. The previous few weeks, KC had scored 1-5-6 points. The 5 points came IN Oakland.
So yea, Seans bench blew up and his starters sucked. He also learned a hard lesson in where you put your eggs. Having the two best TEs is great, but we should all remember they are still TEs, the most volatile position in fantasy (besides kicker.) Having the best TEs may be a large season long advantage, but in a one week window its not as daunting. Gronk had a nice game and 22 points but Jimmy Graham, the #1 consensus TE going into the season, dropped just 5 points (after a 0 the week before)
Team Ice Cream on the other hand, just business as usual. Adam's team is just chugging along at a modest pace. He scored 109 this week which is nothing to write home about, but it got the job done.
Lets look at Adams recent scoring history:
Week 14- 109
Week 13- 115
Week 12- 110
Week 11- 116
Week 10- 112
Pretty damn consistent. Somehow Adam managed to win 3 of these 5 matchups, but he is clearly going to need more from his squad in Week 15 and 16 if he wants to win the D.
Anyway, moving on to the Semis, here are the Matchups:
Tahiti Loungers vs Team Ice Cream
Last week my team would have scored over 200 points, which would have been my best week in franchise history. It was kind of a waste, but Im hoping my guys stay hot. Heres a position breakdown for this matchup:
QB- Andrew Luck vs Matt Stafford
Andrew Luck has been amazing this year, and he's likely to have another 25+ point performance this week vs, Houston, who he hung up 370 yards and 3 TDs earlier this year. Stafford has the Vikings this week who he should be able to pass on as well. There is probably only 1 or maybe 2 weeks Stafford has outscored Luck, and I doubt it happens here.
WRs- Megatron/Dez/Gordon vs Evans/Golden Tate/ Jeremy Maclin
Adam has gotten a ton of usage out of Mike Evans, who has surprised me and kept up his scoring rate. He's really good. Maclin has a good matchup and we know he is dangerous. Golden Tate hasnt been near as dominant with a healthy Megatron in play, but he is still a goodplayer with upside.
Megatron is Megatron. He is the #1 WR every week when healthy, which he currently is.
Dez Bryant could also go off this week.... He is facing off against Maclin in the same game so it will be fun to watch this one.
Josh Gordon.... what the fuck bro. 3 points last week? Killing me. I have the option to play Joique Bell over Josh Gordon... and its not crazy. Bell has been hot and Gordon is a wild card, ESP with Johnny Football taking over. But... I think Im sticking with Josh. I think Manziel wants to get him the ball. His upside is huge, and lets remember every week hes getting more and more integrated in this offense. This will be his 4th game back... he hasnt scored yet... that's finna change this week I think.
Mine- Jamaal Charles, LeVeon Bell
Adams- Isiah Crowell, ????? (Donald Brown?)
Blood Bath City. Should I even waste my time with this? I think not. Leveon could/will/has outscore both his RBs. He has scored over 40 in 3 straight games. Not a typo.
TE- Greg Olsen vs Kyle Rudolph or Dwayne Allen
I dont know who Adam is starting, but neither are great options. Olsen is better, but he has been hot and cold this season. Last week he was hot. Cam Newton is hurt and so who knows what the QB change does... but I am confident in Olsen over anyone Adam can start.
I really don't see how anyone can predict a Team Ice Cream win here. It would be my 3rd victory over Adam THIS YEAR. Could it happen? Sure. It's fantasy, anything can happen. But this has to be the biggest mis match in Semi Final history. I stated above what Adam has averaged over the past 5 weeks... here is my averages next to his
Week 14 me 202
Week 14 Adam 109
Week 13 me 181
Week 13 Adam 115
Week 12 me 125
Week 12 Adam 110
Week 11 me 146
Week 11 Adam 116
Week 10 me 164
Week 10 Adam 112
As you can see, it ain't close. So Ill be pretty bitter if I lose this week. But I don't think I will. I will predict a Tahiti Lounger win, 165-120.
the rental guys vs Angry Pirates
This should be an epic battle. Dan's team is HOT and Campbell's team, as we know, is stacked. Lets go player vs player here:
Peyton Manning vs Johnny Football
This is bad, real bad. For Dan. First, I think Peyton goes off this Sunday. They have been running a bunch, but this game is in San Diego and if the weather is nice, Peyton should shred.
Johnny Football is interesting. I think he will be OK because of the rushing ability, but damn I would NOT want to start him in the fantasy playoffs. It's dumb. Dan has stubbornly rolled with Kaepernick ALL YEAR. Kaep hasn't scored more than 13 points since early October (!!!) and averages 12 points a game. Thats so gross. It's even grosser that Dan rolled with him this whole time. Just last week, Mark Sanchez was available but stubborn Dan refused to admit Sanchez is a better option that his shitty QB combo. We'll see what happens but it could (and iHope it does) lose him this matchup.
Antonio Brown/AJ Green
TY Hilton/ Julio Jones
First, The color combo Campbell has is great. Brown and Green are top 5 guys, both healthy, both playing well. Dan has TY Hilton who is equally as beast especially recently.
The X factor here is Julio Jones. Does he play? He had to leave the game the other night and he'll likely be a GTD. If he does, and he is effective, these WRs all wash each other out. They all could blow up and all have immense upside. If Julio DOESNT play... and I would bet he doesnt if I had to guess, Vincent Jackson would slip into Dans WR2 spot. Hes a couple tiers below these other studs so Dan will be hoping for the best with Julio
Matt Forte/ CJ Anderson vs DeMarco Murray/ LeSean Mccoy
Whoa. More truck loads of talent here. Forte and Murray have been top 3 backs all year, so they basically cancel each other out. CJ Anderson has been a beast, again I think this is a Peyton game but Anderson still has a great shot to score. LeSean Mccoy should also have a nice game vs Dallas, although it's sad he doesnt catch passes anymore. Overall you have to give a slight edge to Dan here.
TE- Bennett vs Gates
Bennett had his best game of the season last week after B Marsh went down. He is going to be peppered with targets on Monday Night. Denver is not that great vs TEs so Gates should have a nice game too... but Bennett is the hot hand Ill take him this week.
FLEX- Mark Ingram vs... ???
If Julio plays, Dan can flex V Jax. But if he doesnt, I have no idea who he is going to play. Jordan Cameron? Reggie Wayne? Andrew Hawkins? Toby Gerhart? Allen Robinson? I mean, it doesnt matter. I like Ingram more than all these guys. Not close.
After looking at everything its a little easier for me to predict what I originally thought would be a ANGRy PIRATES victory. Obv Julio Jones health is a big factor here. I still think Campbell has too much fire power for Dan to overcome this week... but Dan has scored a shit ton of points over the past 3 weeks so this one should be good. I think Campbell wins 150-145