December 20, 2013

Breaking Down the 2013 Dirty D 'Ship

Player by Player Breakdown Tahiti Loungers vs Team Ice Cream 2013 Dirty D Championship

QBs- Andy Dalton vs. Drew Brees

Brees and Dalton have played for both mine and Adam’s team this year. Brees is obviously the stud… a bonafide fantasy superstar. Dalton? He’s purely a matchup QB…. And a pretty good one at that if you spot start him at the right time (at home vs a bad opponent.) Check out these splits (8 road games, 5 home games):

Road #s- 27 TDs, 16 INTs, 87.6 rating
Home #s- 14 TDs, 5 INTs, 98.9 rating

Road fantasy output:  15-5-26-28-8-14-9-19   (17.25 average)
Home fantasy output: 16-13-8-33-11-30  (18.50 average)

I actually thought the fantasy numbers would have a wider gap. The 11 and 8 point showings at home came against the Pats (when they had a good defense) and the Browns.

Anyway, I expect that 18.5 point average at home to be the floor for Dalton this week. Coming into town is the Minnesota Vikings, who have recently yielded:

Week 15- Nick Foles- 39 fantasy points
Week 14- Joe Flacco- 19 points
Week 13- Josh McClown- 24 points
Week 12-  GB QBs- 25 points

Overall this is the second worst passing defense. Last week they couldn’t stop DeSean Jackson (10/195/1), so I’m not sure how they have any chance of  stopping AJ Green this week.  Plus it helps that the Vikings are somehow scoring points on offense to keep the games competitive and high scoring.

Overall I expect AT LEAST something along the lines of 300 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and 15 rushing yards. That’s 21 fantasy points. I’d be pretty happy  with that, if Dalton gets me 20+ that’s all I can really hope for with my QBBC.

As for Brees…. Well, he’s Drew Brees. I am not inside Adam’s head so I can only assume he is taking the “start your studs” mentality this weekend. Its obv very tough to ever sit Drew Brees… but I’m going to lay something out to you real quick.

Road fantasy output:  14-19-16-21-19-7-21  (16.7 average)
Home fantasy output: 22-33-38-35-33-16-30 (34.28 average)

Huge, huge gap there. Brees is twice the fantasy QB at home as he is on the road, having not scored over 21 points yet this season outside the dome.  What’s worse for Brees owners is that this week’s game- on the road in Carolina- is against a tough defense. The Carolina defense has been stellar vs QBs this year, giving up the 2nd least points to opposing QBS.  The most they have given up all year, though? Brees 2 weeks ago in the dome (30). The most they have given up at home? Russell Wilson Week 1 with 16 points. They gave up 13 to Brady a few weeks ago on MNF. This defense is for real.

So that seems like it may create a situation where Brees owners may think about looking elsewhere. I own Brees in a different league I am playing for the Championship in, and I am starting him (Over Cousins and Cutler.)  Adam’s other choices are Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick… although I think he mostly picked up those cats to “block” me. Cousins may be a tempting play this week after lighting up the Falcons last week… but at the end of the day he’s still Kirk Cousins.  Hard to trust in his 3rd career start, even if he IS going against the worst passing defense in the league.

So anyway I assume Adam will stick with Brees (who I traded him, by the way) and here my prediction for him:

280 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. That translates to 17 fantasy points. That’s right in line with Brees’ road average, and would be the 3rd highest amount of points scored against Carolina this year.

WR1- Jordy Nelson vs Desean Jackson

Aaron Rodgers not playing this week means a massive downgrade to Jordy Nelson. With Rodgers at the helm, Nelson is a mid rage WR1. Without him, Nelson is merely a WR2.  

Jordy avg fantasy points with AR:  21.42
Jordy avg fantasy points without AR:  10.42

That’s a massive difference. I only started Jordy last week because of the great matchup (and he rewarded me with his first TD since Rodgers went down.) Ideally he would be on my bench but I have been throttled with injuries to star players in the past few weeks. Welker got that concussion and is out. Victor Cruz also went down with injury.  Ultimately, compared to my options, Jordy is my best WR play this week. I believe in this guys talent… and I think stupid Matt Flynn is getting better game by game. The Packers offense has a little bit of mojo going and with this Jordy Nelson play, I am banking on a TD. Im not going to project the TD but my best guess is Jordy ends up with a 5 for 70 type afternoon vs Ike Taylor. If he scores a TD that’s gravy, but officially Im only projecting 12 points from Jordy.

DeSean Jackson…possibly the best “big play” receiver in the NFL. He’s so freaking fast. He’s 5th in the NFL in yardage but only 21st in targets… what does that mean? They take deep shots to this guy and he’s pretty good at catching them. He’s #2 in the NFL on plays that go for 25 yards or more.

So yes, this guy is scary to face. This week the Eagles are playing Chicago… a team that is TERRIBLE vs the run. So I expect a heavy dose of LeSean Mccoy…. That’s means one of two things for D Jax. If Chicago sells out to stop the run, D Jax is going to have a field day with single coverage. Multiple long TDs. Pleas God do not let this be the case! Hopefully it goes the other way… with the Bears concentrating on shutting the passing game/big plays down and making the Eagles beat them on the ground.  Regardless, its pretty scary to see D Jax on the other side of my matchup. He HAS scored single digits in 4 different games this year… but coming off a monster 41 point performance I doubt we see a dud. I’m projecting a 6/120/1 game. 26 fantasy points.

WR2- Ruben Randle vs Pierre Garcon

Another WR matchup blood bath in Adam’s favor. Let’s take a looksie at Garcon and his Week 16 outlook:

A.      He’s facing off against the Cowboys, the worst passing D in the league
B.      He will have Kirk Cousins passing to him again… a guy who’s willing to take shots deep. Last week Garcon dropped 7/129/1, his best game since Week 10.

Garcon has yet to have a game where he catches less than 5 passes. He has a great matchup. Projecting him for anything less than 8/120/1 is just dangerous. 28 fantasy points.

Rueben Randle is the guy I’m (most likely) gambling on this week. I love this guy’s talent. I had him rostered for most of the year as a back up for Cruz. I dropped him a few weeks ago when the Giants offense went in the toilet. Speaking of the Giants offense… so gross. They just got shut out at home by Seattle. Eli threw 5 INTS. Gross city.

HOWEVER- the Lions defense (and secondary) are not near as imposing as the Seahawks. I am somewhat concerned loser Eli will be under a ton of pressure all game, but it may only take a few catches for Randle to make a big play. He has 6 TDs on the year compared to 4 for Cruz and 0 for Nicks.  I’m rolling the dice on this gut call and going with Randle over guys like Andre Caldwell, Rod Streater, and Marvin Jones. Don’t let me down Rueben!  Projection: 5/75/1,   18 fantasy points.

RB1- Jamaal Charles vs Reggie Bush

Phew. Thank God we are done with the WR projections. I’m feeling like shit right now. What the best medicine for my shitty WRs? How about my bomb RBs? Charles is in a league of his own this year. He has SIXTY more points than the #2 RB (Mccoy). Last week’s  5 TD heroic effort proved that Charles probably has the highest ceiling for any RB. He just makes plays and doesn’t go down. His #1 concern coming into the year was durability.. well he has 311 touches already and is only improving.

Although he is matchup proof, this week Indy comes to town having only yielded two 100 yard rushers all year. Marshawn Lynch in Week 5 and Ryan Mathews Week 6. Charles, however, is a swiss army knife. If your stopping the run, he’ll catch dump offs all day. Guy can’t be stopped. For this week I am projecting 88 rushing yards, 5 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD.  That’s 25 fantasy points.

Reggie Bush has also been a stud all year, when healthy. He’s missed some time but none of it matters now, he’s healthy entering the last week. The Lions are playing the Giants, and Bush should feast per usual. The Giants have given up a rushing TD in 3 straight games, and opponent RBs are averaging 5 catches against. Ass in the fact that this is a must win for the Lions and they are at home… you get a very nice play here for Adam. My only hope is that Joique Bell steals the goal line looks and plays well enough to command snaps.  Projecting Reggie at 80 rush yards, 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, 1 TD which equals 25 points.  (Adam would certainly be happy with Bush cancelling out Charles, which is how I have it projected.

 RB2-  Eddie Lacy vs. Ryan Mathews

Ryan Mathews has been a nice surprise for his owners this year, especially as of late. Earlier in the season Danny Woodhead was stealing all the playing time, but the Chargers coaches love Mathews and are determined to make it work with him. He’s stayed healthy and been very solid. On the schedule this week is Oakland, who just surrendered 65 fantasy points to Jamaal Charles last week. Needless to say, Mathews is probably drooling at this matchup. I don’t see how he doesn’t continue his production of 20+ point games. Projecting him at 130 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 20 yards. Another 25 point projection.

Eddie Lacy is a beast. Just your typical big bodied downhill punishing runner. Without Rodgers playing his upside is limited… the Steelers are just going to load the box and try to stop this guy. He can definitely be slowed down between the 20s, but near the goal line he’s an animal. He also has a nice pair of mitts out of the backfield. Ill project Lacy at 110 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 catches for 25 yards. That’s  22 fantasy points.

TE- Jimmy Graham vs Greg Olsen

Last week I put up a franchise high in points, with a lowly 4 spot from the stud Jimmy Graham. He’s actually been pretty containable over the past 6 weeks, averaging just 10 fantasy points per game. With a tough matchup vs. Carolina… I expect Brees to lean pretty heavily on his favorite target. A big bounce back week is expected from Jimmy, and this is something I will likely need if I want to win the D. Projecting Graham for 7/90/1 which translates to 22 fantasy points.

It looks like Adam will be rolling with Greg Olsen, so our Tight Ends will be facing off vs each other. Olsen put up a nice 8/40 line vs the Saints 2 weeks ago… and Kam Newton has shown trust in his TE target this year. The Saints will have a hard time covering Olsen, so the hope here is that he is contained on the field and doesn’t get into the end zone. Ill project G-Reg for 7/60 and no TD. That’s 13 points.

 Flex- Jordan Todman vs Andre Brown

***This just in. When looking for a pic of Todman (right)  I found the one above from the MIAA Super Bowls in 2007. Jordan Todman is from Dartmouth, MA!!!! Crazy. Never knew that. I guess that explains why he went to UConn****

This guys are in very, very similar situations this week. Jordan Todman could end up being my hero this year. The speedy JAX backup got the start for injured MJD last week, and rewarded me with 18 fantasy points. He didn’t get into the endzone, but he looked good and flashed skill. The Jags receiving core is a mess, so they figure to lean on Todman this week. Through shear workload (and talent) alone, Todman should be able to find some room to run vs Tennessee, the 2nd worst defensive unit. The rest of the offense sucks so expectations should be tempered.  Projecting 90 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 30 yards,  21 fantasy points.

Andre Brown has been a horse since he returned. You basically have to throw out last weeks dud… the entire offense had no chance vs Seattle. The Lions run defense IS pretty good, so I don’t expect Andre Brown to go buck wild, but again, like Todman, through workload and talent alone Brown will produce some fantasy points.   Projecting 95 rush yards, 3 catches, 25 yards. 14 points.

Defense-  KC/DET/STL vs CLE

I haven’t decided what D/ST to roll with yet. Here are my options:

KC- These guys have delivered all year, except for a 3 week window when they played Denver twice and SD. KC at home is nice… but I have my concerns. Andrew Luck and the Colts just don’t turn the ball over. And I think this game could be high scoring. To play the KC defense I would have to bank on a TD which I don’t know if I can do. This unit is very very good, though, so even in a “bad” matchup vs Indy, they are still a  top 5 option.

Detroit- Detroit is playing Eli and the Giants at home. Nuff said.

St Louis- The Rams are really good at home. And their D/ST has blown up this year. Tavon Austin probably isn’t playing so the return TD threat is essentially nil, but at home vs TB this is a pretty safe play.

Adams rolling with the Cleveland defense, playing against the mighty Jets. Cleveland crushed it last weekend, an 18 point effort vs the Bears. I doubt they score 2 TDs again this week, but I have to project them for at least 15 points because they are playing the Jets. Whichever defense I end up going with, I will project them for the same amount.

Kicker- Phil Dawson vs Matt Prater

Normally I would give Adam an advantage here, but this week it should be pretty even. Prater scores more at home (this week he is on the road) and the SF offense has been extra bad at finishing drives recently. I still think Denver has the potential to score at will so Prater is the preferred guy, but its close. Ill project Prater for 14 and Dawson for 12.

So here is my prediction:

Tahiti Loungers
Dalton- 21
Nelson- 12
Randle- 18
Charles- 25
Lacy- 22
Graham- 22
Todman- 21
Defense- 15
Dawson- 12

Total:  168

Team Ice Cream
Brees- 17
Jackson- 26
Garcon- 28
Bush- 25
Mathews- 25
Olsen- 13
Brown- 14
Cleveland- 15
Prater- 14

Total: 177

So there you have it. 

My official prediction is a Team Ice Cream win 177-168.

While its almost guaranteed I am way too high in my projections, I think what the biggest takeaway here is the fact that these 2 teams should produce a very,. very close matchup. It’s going to come down to who’s studs perform better…there’s a dozen or so players involved that could easily go OFF. There's always a chance you will be disappointed too… like I said last week Jimmy Graham had 4 points. Inexplicable. That shit happens sometimes. So no matter what the result, I am proud of both of these teams for competing down to wire this year. Both teams deserve to with the D. That being said, fuck off Adam, Tahiti Repeati !!!!!! LETS GOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

No comments:

Post a Comment