Player by Player Breakdown Tahiti Loungers vs Team Ice Cream 2013 Dirty D Championship
QBs- Andy Dalton vs. Drew Brees
Brees and Dalton have played for both mine and Adam’s team
this year. Brees is obviously the stud… a bonafide fantasy superstar. Dalton?
He’s purely a matchup QB…. And a pretty good one at that if you spot start him
at the right time (at home vs a bad opponent.) Check out these splits (8 road
games, 5 home games):
Road #s- 27 TDs, 16 INTs, 87.6 rating
Home #s- 14 TDs, 5 INTs, 98.9 rating
Road fantasy output: 15-5-26-28-8-14-9-19 (17.25 average)
Home fantasy output: 16-13-8-33-11-30 (18.50 average)
I actually thought the fantasy numbers would have a wider
gap. The 11 and 8 point showings at home came against the Pats (when they had a
good defense) and the Browns.
Anyway, I expect that 18.5 point average at home to be the
floor for Dalton this week. Coming into town is the Minnesota Vikings, who have
recently yielded:
Week 15- Nick Foles- 39 fantasy points
Week 14- Joe Flacco- 19 points
Week 13- Josh McClown- 24 points
Week 12- GB QBs- 25
points
Overall this is the second worst passing defense. Last week
they couldn’t stop DeSean Jackson (10/195/1), so I’m not sure how they have any
chance of stopping AJ Green this week. Plus it helps that the Vikings are somehow
scoring points on offense to keep the games competitive and high scoring.
Overall I expect AT LEAST something along the lines of 300
yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and 15 rushing yards. That’s 21 fantasy points. I’d be
pretty happy with that, if Dalton gets
me 20+ that’s all I can really hope for with my QBBC.
As for Brees…. Well, he’s Drew Brees. I am not inside Adam’s
head so I can only assume he is taking the “start your studs” mentality this
weekend. Its obv very tough to ever sit Drew Brees… but I’m going to lay
something out to you real quick.
Road fantasy output: 14-19-16-21-19-7-21 (16.7 average)
Home fantasy output: 22-33-38-35-33-16-30 (34.28 average)
Huge, huge gap there. Brees is twice the fantasy QB at home
as he is on the road, having not scored over 21 points yet this season outside
the dome. What’s worse for Brees owners
is that this week’s game- on the road in Carolina- is against a tough defense.
The Carolina defense has been stellar vs QBs this year, giving up the 2nd
least points to opposing QBS. The most
they have given up all year, though? Brees 2 weeks ago in the dome (30). The
most they have given up at home? Russell Wilson Week 1 with 16 points. They
gave up 13 to Brady a few weeks ago on MNF. This defense is for real.
So that seems like it may create a situation where Brees
owners may think about looking elsewhere. I own Brees in a different league I
am playing for the Championship in, and I am starting him (Over Cousins and
Cutler.) Adam’s other choices are Kirk
Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick… although I think he mostly picked up those cats
to “block” me. Cousins may be a tempting play this week after lighting up the Falcons
last week… but at the end of the day he’s still Kirk Cousins. Hard to trust in his 3rd career
start, even if he IS going against the worst passing defense in the league.
So anyway I assume Adam will stick with Brees (who I traded
him, by the way) and here my prediction for him:
280 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. That translates to 17 fantasy
points. That’s right in line with Brees’ road average, and would be the 3rd
highest amount of points scored against Carolina this year.
WR1- Jordy Nelson vs Desean Jackson
Aaron Rodgers not playing this week means a massive
downgrade to Jordy Nelson. With Rodgers at the helm, Nelson is a mid rage WR1.
Without him, Nelson is merely a WR2.
Jordy avg fantasy points with AR: 21.42
Jordy avg fantasy points without AR: 10.42
That’s a massive difference. I only started Jordy last week
because of the great matchup (and he rewarded me with his first TD since
Rodgers went down.) Ideally he would be on my bench but I have been throttled with
injuries to star players in the past few weeks. Welker got that concussion and
is out. Victor Cruz also went down with injury. Ultimately, compared to my options, Jordy is
my best WR play this week. I believe in this guys talent… and I think stupid
Matt Flynn is getting better game by game. The Packers offense has a little bit
of mojo going and with this Jordy Nelson play, I am banking on a TD. Im not
going to project the TD but my best guess is Jordy ends up with a 5 for 70 type
afternoon vs Ike Taylor. If he scores a TD that’s gravy, but officially Im only
projecting 12 points from Jordy.
DeSean Jackson…possibly the best “big play” receiver in the
NFL. He’s so freaking fast. He’s 5th in the NFL in yardage but only 21st
in targets… what does that mean? They take deep shots to this guy and he’s
pretty good at catching them. He’s #2 in the NFL on plays that go for 25 yards
or more.
So yes, this guy is scary to face. This week the Eagles are
playing Chicago… a team that is TERRIBLE vs the run. So I expect a heavy dose
of LeSean Mccoy…. That’s means one of two things for D Jax. If Chicago sells
out to stop the run, D Jax is going to have a field day with single coverage.
Multiple long TDs. Pleas God do not let this be the case! Hopefully it goes the
other way… with the Bears concentrating on shutting the passing game/big plays
down and making the Eagles beat them on the ground. Regardless, its pretty scary to see D Jax on
the other side of my matchup. He HAS scored single digits in 4 different games
this year… but coming off a monster 41 point performance I doubt we see a dud.
I’m projecting a 6/120/1 game. 26 fantasy points.
WR2- Ruben Randle vs Pierre Garcon
Another WR matchup blood bath in Adam’s favor. Let’s take a
looksie at Garcon and his Week 16 outlook:
A.
He’s facing off against the Cowboys, the worst
passing D in the league
B.
He will have Kirk Cousins passing to him again…
a guy who’s willing to take shots deep. Last week Garcon dropped 7/129/1, his
best game since Week 10.
Garcon has yet to have a game where he catches less than 5
passes. He has a great matchup. Projecting him for anything less than 8/120/1
is just dangerous. 28 fantasy points.
Rueben Randle is the guy I’m (most likely) gambling on this
week. I love this guy’s talent. I had him rostered for most of the year as a
back up for Cruz. I dropped him a few weeks ago when the Giants offense went in
the toilet. Speaking of the Giants offense… so gross. They just got shut out at
home by Seattle. Eli threw 5 INTS. Gross city.
HOWEVER- the Lions defense (and secondary) are not near as
imposing as the Seahawks. I am somewhat concerned loser Eli will be under a ton
of pressure all game, but it may only take a few catches for Randle to make a
big play. He has 6 TDs on the year compared to 4 for Cruz and 0 for Nicks. I’m rolling the dice on this gut call and
going with Randle over guys like Andre Caldwell, Rod Streater, and Marvin Jones.
Don’t let me down Rueben! Projection: 5/75/1,
18 fantasy points.
RB1- Jamaal Charles vs Reggie Bush
Phew. Thank God we are done with the WR projections. I’m
feeling like shit right now. What the best medicine for my shitty WRs? How
about my bomb RBs? Charles is in a league of his own this year. He has SIXTY
more points than the #2 RB (Mccoy). Last week’s 5 TD heroic effort proved that Charles
probably has the highest ceiling for any RB. He just makes plays and doesn’t go
down. His #1 concern coming into the year was durability.. well he has 311
touches already and is only improving.
Although he is matchup proof, this week Indy comes to town
having only yielded two 100 yard rushers all year. Marshawn Lynch in Week 5 and
Ryan Mathews Week 6. Charles, however, is a swiss army knife. If your stopping
the run, he’ll catch dump offs all day. Guy can’t be stopped. For this week I
am projecting 88 rushing yards, 5 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD. That’s 25 fantasy points.
Reggie Bush has also been a stud all year, when healthy. He’s
missed some time but none of it matters now, he’s healthy entering the last
week. The Lions are playing the Giants, and Bush should feast per usual. The
Giants have given up a rushing TD in 3 straight games, and opponent RBs are
averaging 5 catches against. Ass in the fact that this is a must win for the
Lions and they are at home… you get a very nice play here for Adam. My only
hope is that Joique Bell steals the goal line looks and plays well enough to
command snaps. Projecting Reggie at 80
rush yards, 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, 1 TD which equals 25 points. (Adam would certainly be happy with Bush
cancelling out Charles, which is how I have it projected.
Ryan Mathews has been a nice surprise for his owners this
year, especially as of late. Earlier in the season Danny Woodhead was stealing
all the playing time, but the Chargers coaches love Mathews and are determined
to make it work with him. He’s stayed healthy and been very solid. On the
schedule this week is Oakland, who just surrendered 65 fantasy points to Jamaal
Charles last week. Needless to say, Mathews is probably drooling at this
matchup. I don’t see how he doesn’t continue his production of 20+ point games.
Projecting him at 130 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 20 yards. Another 25
point projection.
Eddie Lacy is a beast. Just your typical big bodied downhill
punishing runner. Without Rodgers playing his upside is limited… the Steelers
are just going to load the box and try to stop this guy. He can definitely be
slowed down between the 20s, but near the goal line he’s an animal. He also has
a nice pair of mitts out of the backfield. Ill project Lacy at 110 rushing
yards, 1 TD, 3 catches for 25 yards. That’s 22 fantasy points.
TE- Jimmy Graham vs Greg Olsen
Last week I put up a franchise high in points, with a lowly
4 spot from the stud Jimmy Graham. He’s actually been pretty containable over
the past 6 weeks, averaging just 10 fantasy points per game. With a tough
matchup vs. Carolina… I expect Brees to lean pretty heavily on his favorite
target. A big bounce back week is expected from Jimmy, and this is something I
will likely need if I want to win the D. Projecting Graham for 7/90/1 which
translates to 22 fantasy points.
It looks like Adam will be rolling with Greg Olsen, so our
Tight Ends will be facing off vs each other. Olsen put up a nice 8/40 line vs
the Saints 2 weeks ago… and Kam Newton has shown trust in his TE target this
year. The Saints will have a hard time covering Olsen, so the hope here is that
he is contained on the field and doesn’t get into the end zone. Ill project
G-Reg for 7/60 and no TD. That’s 13 points.
This guys are in very, very similar situations this week. Jordan
Todman could end up being my hero this year. The speedy JAX backup got the
start for injured MJD last week, and rewarded me with 18 fantasy points. He didn’t
get into the endzone, but he looked good and flashed skill. The Jags receiving
core is a mess, so they figure to lean on Todman this week. Through shear workload
(and talent) alone, Todman should be able to find some room to run vs
Tennessee, the 2nd worst defensive unit. The rest of the offense
sucks so expectations should be tempered. Projecting 90 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 30
yards, 21 fantasy points.
Andre Brown has been a horse since he returned. You
basically have to throw out last weeks dud… the entire offense had no chance vs
Seattle. The Lions run defense IS pretty good, so I don’t expect Andre Brown to
go buck wild, but again, like Todman, through workload and talent alone Brown
will produce some fantasy points. Projecting 95 rush yards, 3 catches, 25
yards. 14 points.
Defense- KC/DET/STL
vs CLE
I haven’t decided what D/ST to roll with yet. Here are my
options:
KC- These guys have delivered all year, except for a 3 week
window when they played Denver twice and SD. KC at home is nice… but I have my
concerns. Andrew Luck and the Colts just don’t turn the ball over. And I think
this game could be high scoring. To play the KC defense I would have to bank on
a TD which I don’t know if I can do. This unit is very very good, though, so
even in a “bad” matchup vs Indy, they are still a top 5 option.
Detroit- Detroit is playing Eli and the Giants at home. Nuff
said.
St Louis- The Rams are really good at home. And their D/ST
has blown up this year. Tavon Austin probably isn’t playing so the return TD
threat is essentially nil, but at home vs TB this is a pretty safe play.
Adams rolling with the Cleveland defense, playing against
the mighty Jets. Cleveland crushed it last weekend, an 18 point effort vs the
Bears. I doubt they score 2 TDs again this week, but I have to project them for
at least 15 points because they are playing the Jets. Whichever defense I end
up going with, I will project them for the same amount.
Kicker- Phil Dawson vs Matt Prater
Normally I would give Adam an advantage here, but this week
it should be pretty even. Prater scores more at home (this week he is on the
road) and the SF offense has been extra bad at finishing drives recently. I still
think Denver has the potential to score at will so Prater is the preferred guy,
but its close. Ill project Prater for 14 and Dawson for 12.
So here is my prediction:
Tahiti Loungers
Dalton- 21
Nelson- 12
Randle- 18
Charles- 25
Lacy- 22
Graham- 22
Todman- 21
Defense- 15
Dawson- 12
Total: 168
Team Ice Cream
Brees- 17
Jackson- 26
Garcon- 28
Bush- 25
Mathews- 25
Olsen- 13
Brown- 14
Cleveland- 15
Prater- 14
Total: 177
So there you have it.
My official prediction is a Team Ice
Cream win 177-168.
While its almost guaranteed I am way too high in my projections,
I think what the biggest takeaway here is the fact that these 2 teams should
produce a very,. very close matchup. It’s going to come down to who’s studs
perform better…there’s a dozen or so players involved that could easily go OFF.
There's always a chance you will be disappointed too… like I said last week
Jimmy Graham had 4 points. Inexplicable. That shit happens sometimes. So no
matter what the result, I am proud of both of these teams for competing down to
wire this year. Both teams deserve to with the D. That being said, fuck off Adam, Tahiti Repeati !!!!!! LETS GOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
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