November 1, 2013

Dirty D Playoff Teams



After this week we only have 4 weeks remaining in the regular season. With that in mind, I did a little research to see what the record of all the playoff teams has been through the last 3 years of the league, to get a better understanding on everyone's chances this year.

In 2010 the playoff teams were:

10-3- BYE
9-4- BYE
8-5
7-5-1
7-5-1
7-6* wins tiebreaker between 3 teams


In 2011 the playoff teams were:

11-1-1- BYE
8-5- BYE
8-5
7-6
7-6
6-7* wins tiebreaker between 2 teams


In 2012:

10-3- BYE
8-5- BYE
8-5
7-6
7-6
7-6


So basically you need to get at least 7 wins if you want to make the playoffs. 8 wins will definitely get someone in the playoffs, while 7 wins may put you in a tie breaker. Here's what this info means for each team THIS season:

Team Ice Cream 6-1-1
Adam is basically 1 win away from clinching a playoff spot. Plus, he has the most points for in the league so there's virtually 0% Adam misses the playoffs, even if he loses out.


Eat More Chicken 6-1-1
Same deal as Adam. 1 win away from stamping her ticket.


Tahiti Loungers 6-2
Same thing for me. 1 win away or at the most, 2 wins away from the playoffs. Jenna, Adam and I will be competing for the 2 BYEs.


Victorious Secret 5-3
Kait needs at least 2 more wins. Her remaining opponents:

Week 9- Eat More Chicken
Week 10- Angry Pirates
Week 11- Tahiti Loungers
Week 12- Boston Patriots
Week 13- A Pinch Better

If you pencil in a Loss for Week 9 (bye weeks issues plus strong opponent) and Week 11 (Strong opponent) that leaves Kait needing to win 2 out of 3 vs Campbell, Mr B, and Sean.


A Pinch Better 4-4

Sean needs 3 more wins and this is his schedule:

Week 9- vs Bill
Week 10- vs Jenna
Week 11- vs Campbell
Week 12- vs James
Week 13- vs Kait

I don't see Sean winning in week 9 (already down big, has Megatron, Roddy, and Larry Fitz on the bench.)
So that means Sean will likely need to win 3 of the last 4 weeks to get in.  Not an easy task with 2 of the top 3 teams on the schedule. The week 13 matchup Kait vs Sean is shaping up to be HUGE. My guess is Sean will need to win the game to have a chance at a playoff spot.


the rental guys 4-4

Dan also needs at least 3 more wins. His schedule-

Week 9- vs Adam
Week 10- vs Abe
Week 11- vs Bill
Week 12- vs Jenna
Week 13- vs C Bell

Its going to be close. Adam, Bill, Jenna are all strong opponents so Dan has to beat the other 2 and at least one of the big 3. My guess is that this likely wont happen and Dan will miss the playoffs for the first time. There IS a chance a 6-7 team may sneak in the playoffs... if that's the case Dan will likely have a good shot at being that team. (Dan made the playoffs at 6-7 in 2011. The only losing team to ever qualify)


Crossing Guards 3-5 and Boston Patriots 3-5

The 3-5 teams are behind the 8 ball, on the outside looking in right now. Bill and Mr B, however, have had some bad luck. With 1034 and 1026 points, these 2 teams are likely to win a tie breaker vs any of the bubble teams. These guys have to win AT LEAST 3 of the remaining 5 weeks or they won't have a chance. It may take a 4-1 run over the last 4 weeks for either of these teams to make it.

Bills remaining opponents:

Week 9- Sean
Week 10- Donny
Week 11- Dan
Week 12- Paul
Week 13- Adam

Bunny City. Giving Bill the W this week (reasons mentioned above for Sean) and a free W in Week 10 and that brings Bill to 5-5 with 3 weeks left needed 1 or more likely, 2 wins between Dan, Ada, and Paul.

Bill is primed for either a 5th, 6th, or, wait for it, 7th place finish this year.

Mr. B's remaining opponents:

Week 9- Paul
Week 10- James
Week 11- Adam
Week 12- Kait
Week 13-  Abe

If you pencil in a Loss to Adam and I, that means Mr. B would need to win all 3 matchups vs Paul Kait and Abe, and even then with a 6-7 record he's going to have to pray that he's in on a tie breaker for the last spot.

Not expecting this team to make the playoffs.


A1 Providers 3-5 and Angry Pirates 3-5

Unlike the other 3-5 teams, Paul and Campbell aren't going to win any tiebreakers and need to win 4 of the remaining 5 weeks to get in the playoffs.

Campbells remaining opponents:

Week 9- vs James
Week 10- vs Kait
Week 11- vs Sean
Week 12- vs Donny
Week 13- vs Dan

Not looking good for C Bell. Assuming Campbell loses to me hes going to have to win out. If he somehow beats me this week, he's still going to need 3/4 wins to get in. The odds are NOT in Chumpbells favor.

Pauls remaining opponents:

Week 9- vs Mr. B
Week 10- vs Adam
Week 11- vs Abe
Week 12- vs Bill
Week 13- vs Jenna

Ummm....No. Not happening in 2013. Sorry Paul.


The Godfather 2-6 and Comeback Story 2-6 

These teams need to win out AND get help. They both have very low point totals so if they win out and finish 7-6, there's a small chance they still cant get in.

Whats even more interesting is these 2 teams are playing each other THIS WEEK in basically a head to head death match. Abe has a nice 25-0 lead thanks to Gio Bernard, but it's still going to be close.


The Godfather remaining schedule-

Week 9- vs Donny
Week 10- vs Dan
Week 11- vs Paul
Week 12- vs Adam
Week 13- vs Mr. B

Winnable, Winnable, Winnable. Abe could be headed into Week 12 with a 5-6 record and needing 2 wins to get in. Again, it may not be enough to win out but at least Abe has a small chance, only playing 1 really tough matchup (vs Adam in Week 12)


Comeback Story remaining Schedule-

Week 9- vs Abe
Week 10- vs Bill
Week 11- vs Jenna
Week 12- vs Campbell
Week 13- vs James


Good joke. Not happening. Will be lucky to get more than 1 win the rest of the way. Donny does have a chance to spoil Campbell's season in Week 12, though.


So here's my prediction for the playoffs as of right now: 

1. James (11-2)
2. Adam (10-2-1)
3. Jenna (10-2-1)
4. Bill (7-6)
5. Kait (7-6) 
6. Sean (6-7)

7. Dan (6-7)
8. Abe (6-7) 
9. Campbell (5-8)
10. Mr B. (4-9)
11.  Paul (4-9)
12. Donny (2-11)








October 30, 2013

Dirty D Week 9 Power Ranks

Short n' Sweet  this week:


1. Tahiti Loungers (Last week: 2nd)
Note to self: Never sit Jimmy Graham. 18 snaps, 18 fantasy points in Week 8 on my bench.


2. Team Ice Cream (Last week: 1st)
Acquiring Aaron Rodgers was a great move. Losing Megatron sucks, though.


3.Crossing Guards (Last week: 3rd)
Crappy week drops #AutoBill to 7th place in the standings where he belongs.


4. Eat More Chicken (Last week: 4th)
Finally loses. Averaging just 111 point over the past 3 weeks. Too Cowboy-dependent.


5. A Pinch Better (Last week: 6th)
Huge win for Sean, very important considering tough match-ups 3 out of the next 4 weeks.


6. Victorious Secret (Last week: 5th)
Very lucky win last week. Averaging a gross 94 points over the past 3 weeks. Playoff bubble team.


7. the rental guys  (Last week: 10th)
Lucky Scheduling: Opponents averaging 86 points against Dan during current 3 game win streak.


8. Angry Pirates (Last week: 7th)
This team cant afford ANY sub-par performances from AP or Sproles.


9. A1 Providers (Last week: 9th)
Very thin, Up and Down team.



10. Boston Patriots (Last week: 11th)
Nice "replacements" type win last week. Still overloaded at QB and TE and very weak everywhere else.


11. The Godfather (Last week: 8th)
Calvin scored 83 points for Abe in weeks 1-6 combined. Calvin scored 62 against Abe in week 8. Ouchy.


12. Comeback Story  (Last week: 12th)
Bunny team averaging an astounding 74 points in October.




October 23, 2013

Trade Review + Updated Power Ranks


I posted my Power Ranks a few minutes ago and I guess around lunchtime today there was a trade.


Crossing Guards get: Shane Vereen

Team Ice Cream gets: Mike Vick


So Adam has finally made his move for a QB. I knew this was coming but I didn't know when and I didn't know what caliber QB Adam would land. To be frank, I'm disappointed.

Mike Vick missed last week with a hamstring injury. He's expected back in full this week, which is great because they have a cake matchup with the Giants. He's the conensus #7 QB this week. I like him this upcoming Sunday and into the near future.

However, as Campbell put it, "Vick is a China Doll" The dude gets hurt ALL THE TIME. He's crazy frail. And when he's playing at less than 100%, hes not effective.

It's curious to me that Adam would make a trade for Vick. He's 5-1-1 and guaranteed to make the playoffs. The playoffs start in 7 weeks. That's a looooong time to hope Vick holds up for. He didn't make it through the first 7 weeks this year. Or last year. Or the year before.

Another reason why I don't like this trade is because it eliminates a major advantage I thought Adam had- RB depth. The only RBs left on Adams roster are JC in KC, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The first 2 names are awesome weekly plays, and it's nice to have one of their handcuffs, but all of the sudden Adam is no longer deep at the position.

JC in KC is on pace for 400+ touches. He's a small guy and has broken down at the end of seasons before. Reggie Bush is basically the same. Has a hard time making it through a full season. Its very risky to assume both of these guys will be their healthy selves come Week 15.

Also, I have high expectations for Vereen when he returns. I'm talking like, borderline RB1 expectations.

I LOVE this trade for AutoBill. Love it. He doesn't even play Vick. If Bill can survive to week 11 with his crappy rotational Rb2, hes going to be a force when Vereen is in the lineup.

In my positional ranks earlier, I gave Adam the best RB crew moving forward. I had him as the worst QB moving forward. After the trade I would drop Adam to #3 in RB rank and I would still keep him last in QB rank. I still like every other team's starting QB more than Vick.

I had Bill with the 6th best RB crew before the trade, I have him with the 4th best now. His QB rank remains unchanged.


Lastly, here are the teams that Adam should have talk to about trading for a QB IMO

Boston Patriots- Owns both Rivers and Stafford and needs a ton of help
Eat More Chicken- Owns both Luck and Romo and needs help at RB
Comeback Story- Owns Tom Brady. Needs a ton of help.
A Pinch Better- Owns Rodgers and Pryor and has expressed interest in trading Rodgers.
Victorious Secret- Kait doesnt need much but Cutler is her backup and I like him more than Vick in Weeks 15-16





Dirty D Week 8 Power Ranks




This week's version of the Power Rank is exciting. I had a really tough time ranking the middle teams,  so I decided to go about a more mathematical way of looking at the league this week.

First, I  assigned points to each team based on position rank (moving forward ranks).

To make sure these ranks are weighted properly to the position value, I used the following:

36% weight on WR
27% weight on RB
22% weight on QB
15% weight on TE

The reason I valued WR the highest is because most of the time, teams are starting 3 WRs per week, 2 RBs, 1 QB and 1 TE

Here are the results:

(Remember, this is based on how I personally rank these players moving forward)

QB Ranks:
12 points- Victorious Secret (Peyton)
11 points- Tahiti Loungers (Brees)
10 points- A Pinch Better (Rodgers)
9 points- Crossing Guards (Cam)
8 points- Boston Patriots (Stafford/Rivers)
7 points- Eat More Chicken (Romo)
6 points- The Godfather (RG3)
5 points- Angry Pirates (Wilson)
4 points- Comeback Story (Brady)
3 points- the rental guys (Kaepernick)
2 points- A1 Providers (Matt Ryan)
1 point- Team Ice Cream (Eli/QBBC)


WR Ranks
12 points- Tahiti Loungers (Marshall/Welker/Jordy/Randle)
11 points- Team Ice Cream (Megatron/Blackmon/Garcon/Colston/Stevie)
10 points- Crossing Guards (Green/V Jax/ T Smith)
9 points- Eat More Chicken (Dez/Andre/Bolden/Hopkins)
8 points- The Godfather (Thomas/Allen/Moore/Thompkins/Jennings)
7 points- Angry Pirates (Decker/Gordon/Wright/Wallace/Bowe)
6 points-  the rental guys (Fitz/Shorts/Jones/Boykin/DHB/Floyd)
5 points- Victorious Secret (Percy/Nicks/Hartline/Douglas)
4 points- A1 Providers (Cruz/Smith/Williams/Austin/Hill)
3 points- A Pinch Better (D Jax/Roddy/Edelman)
2 points- Comeback Story (Hilton/Amendola/Jeffery/Williams/Sanders)
1 point- Boston Patriots (Brown/Gibson/Lafell)


RB Ranks
12 points- Team Ice Cream (JC/Reggie/Vereen/J Bell)
11 points- A Pinch Better (Foster/Tate/F Jax/DMC/Murray/Mathews)
10 points- Angry Pirates (AP/Sproles/Ball)
9 points- A1 Providers (Gore/Rice/Rodgers/Hunter/McGahee)
8 points- Victorious Secret (Ridley/Richardson/Spiller/Woodhead)
7 points- Crossing Guards (Lynch/ Helu/ Ivory/ Powell/ Bolden)
6 points- Tahiti Loungers (Lacy/Ellington/Wilson/Brown/Brown/Pierce)
5 points- Eat More Chicken (Forte/Miller/Tolbert/Jacobs)
4 points- The Godfather (Gio/Moreno/James/Randle)
3 points- Boston Patriots (McCoy/CJ?K/PT Loser/Blount)
2 points- Comeback Story (Morris/S Jax/Mendenhall/ Richardson)
1 point- the rental guys (Bell/Stacy/MJD/DWilly/Snelling)


TE Ranks
12 points- Tahiti Loungers (Graham)
11 points- Victorious Secret (Gronk)
10 points- Boston Patriots (Thomas/Gates)
9 points- Comeback Story (T Gonz/ Reed)
8 points- Crossing Guards (V Davis)
7 points-  the rental guys (Cameron)
6 points- Eat More Chicken (Witten)
5 points- Team Ice Cream (Bennett)
4 points- A1 Providers (Miller)
3 points- Angry Pirates (Fleener)
2 points- The Godfather (Olsen/Graham)
1 point- A Pinch Better (Cook)


After weighing out these ranks, here are the results:

1. Tahiti Loungers- 1,016 points
2. Crossing Guards- 867
3. Victorious Secret- 825
4. Team Ice Cream- 817
5. Eat More Chicken- 703
6. Angry Pirates- 677
7. A Pinch Better- 640
8. The Godfather- 558
9. A1 Providers- 491
10. Boston Patriots- 443
11. the rental guys- 414
12. Comeback Story- 349


Those would/should be my Power Ranks, except they don't take into account D/ST, Kickers, and of course, most importantly, potential from future transactions.

What jumps off the page is Team Ice Cream checking in at #4. I've had Adam at or near the top of my Power Ranks all year, but he ranks lower here for a couple reasons.

1. These ranks don't take into account D/ST and Adam has an elite option in KC that averages 20 points per week.

2. These ranks don't necessarily take into account depth. For example, Adam could trade away Marques Colston for Jordan Reed and he probably wouldn't lose any points at WR but he would gain a few points at TE. So basically these ranks are based on the rosters as they currently stand . Right now Adam has Eli Manning at QB... I expect him to acquire a better option before the deadline and that's the type of stuff I normally account for in Power Ranks that cant be assigned a numerical value. Another great example is the Boston Patriots. Mr. B could trade away the combo of Rivers/Gates for an impact starting WR. This wouldn't really affect his QB and TE ranks (He has Stafford and J Thomas) but it would certainly help his WR score.  Same goes for Donny and his 2 Tight Ends. He can trade one away and improve his score at another position.

Now, lets move on to my official Power Ranks for this week:


1. Team Ice Cream (Last week: 1st)

Another week, another blow out win for Adam. This is the 4th week Adam has finished as the highest or second highest scoring team. This time it was the newly acquired Calvin Johnson who led the way, with a monster bounce-back performance (42 points.) Adam is the first team to eclipse the 1,000 point mark this season....not like he's even needed it, though. Adam's opponents are only averaging 108 points per week, the lowest in the league. Adam may have lost Doug Martin for the season, but he's loaded at RB so it's not enough to give me any reason to drop Adam in the ranks. This week Adam gets comeback story... If there was ever such a thing as a free win, you're about to see it. The league's best vs. the league's worst.

Team Ice Cream
QB points 1 x 22 = 22
WR points 11 x 36 = 396
RB points 12  x 27 = 324
TE points 5 x 15 = 75
Point Total = 817 points



2. Tahiti Loungers (Last week: 2nd)

Week 7 was brutal for me. It started with a 3 point dud by Andre Ellington, and my QB/TE fill-in combo only yielded 19 points... easily the lowest of the season (Brees/Graham on bye.) My WRs were also pedestrian, 13-15-16 points from Marshall-Nelson-Welker is just meh. That's the best WR trio in our league so they need to do a better job for me. I traded for Blair Walsh and he immediately reminded me of why there is little difference between fantasy kickers. 1 freaking point for the consensus best kicker. Moving forward, I am sure this 104 point output will be my lowest of the season.  To compliment my bona fide super studs (Brees/Graham/Marshall/Welker/Jordy),  It looks like I can count on Eddie Lacy to put up RB1 numbers the rest of the way. I also love having Ruben Randle as my WR4 and I'm only 2 weeks away from getting back David Wilson and/or Andre Brown. I wouldn't trade my roster for anyone's.

Tahiti Loungers
QB points 11 x 22 = 242
WR points 12 x 36 = 432
RB points 6 x 27 = 162
TE points 12 x 15 = 180
Point Total =  1,016 points



3. Crossing Guards (Last week: 4th)

#AutoBill is a buzz saw right now. For the second week in a row this team scored the most points in the league. The scoring started early and often with monster performances full of long TDs. AJ Green and V Jax both went off and scored a combined 70 points. No one else really had a huge game for Bill (his defense had a nice game with 17) but make no mistake about it- this is one of the best teams in the league. Top 5 QB. Killer WR trio. High Upside TE.  Stud RB1 plus a bunch of fine options. Raise your hand if you wish your team was autodrafted...

Crossing Guards
QB points 9 x 22 = 198
WR points 10 x 36 = 360
RB points 7 x 27 = 189
TE points 8 x 15 = 120
Point Total =  867 points



4. Eat More Chicken (Last week: 3rd)

Jenna has averaged 112 points over the past 2 weeks, but still managed to escape with 2 wins and remain undefeated. AP only needed 13 points on MNF to hand Jenna her first loss but alas, that didn't happen. Matt Forte is a beast... If I was re drafting right now he would be a top 3 RB pick. Lamar Miller though, is a different story. Mired in an inexplicable time-share, his value is capped and he is a weak RB2 option. This team has quite literally no depth, so a week like this one coming up (Andre Johnson and Matt Forte on bye) is a tough test that I don't think Jenna will handle well. Her team has studs who of course can always blow up... but I don't like how top heavy this team is. I expect Jenna to lose to me this week, but with a very, very soft schedule down the stretch there's no chance Jenna misses the playoffs.

Eat More Chicken
QB points 7 x 22 = 154
WR points 9 x 36 = 324
RB points 5 x 27 = 135
TE points 6 x 15 = 90
Point Total = 703 points


5. Victorious Secret (Last week: 7th)

Kait has the team that on paper looks wayyyyyy better than it has shown on Sundays. Trent Richardson/CJ Spiller/Stevan Ridley/Danny Woodhead should be the best RB crew in the league. We'll see which one of these former studs can find their golden touch for the second half of the fantasy season. My guess is at least 2 out of the 3 guys end up with respectable 2013 fantasy numbers. Gronk came back this week and put his his standard 20 points per week... on top of that Percy Harvin is actually expected to play in Week 8. With the return of these 2 PPR studs, Kait is looking solid. With a 4-3 record and a hot/cold roster... Kait should flirt with the playoff cut line right down to the wire. Here's here remaining schedule:

Week 8- Crossing Guards
Week 9- Eat More Chicken
Week 10- Angry Pirates
Week 11- Tahiti Loungers
Week 12- Boston Patriots
Week 13- A Pinch Better.

Based on my rankings above, that's at least 4 matchups against playoff bound teams. Every win is going to be huge for Kait... Hell, every point will be important because I'm thinking Victorious Secret is a team that's legit right on the bubble for the playoffs this year and may get in or left out based on a tie breaker.


Victorious Secret
QB points 12 x 22 = 264
WR points 5 x 36 = 180
RB points 8 x 27 = 216
TE points 11 x 15 = 165
Point Total = 825 points


6. A Pinch Better (Last week: 6th)

Sean's team strength is clearly at RB. He has a stud (Foster), studs when healthy (Murray, DMC), solid secondary options (F Jax, Mathews) and top tier handcuff  (Tate.)

The problem here is that Sean is bleeding everywhere else. Yes, he has Aaron Rodgers and I ranked him 3rd moving forward but this going to Aaron Rodgers who:

-finally has a RB to lean on (Go, Lacy! woo hoo)
-is missing his top receiver in Randall Cobb
-is missing his top TE Jermichael Finley
-is  missing James Jones for at least 1 more week

AKA this isn't the Aaron Rodgers Sean picked in the 2nd round of the draft. What's worse is Sean actually owns Jermichael Finely too,  who is probably lost for the rest of the year. He picked up Jared Cook off waivers but this is a big downgrade.

The WR situation here is murky too. DeSean Jackson is great... but he will always have those weeks like this past one where he puts up a dud. If Roddy White comes back healthy, the WR rank here is def too  low, but I truly dont think we see the real Roddy for the rest of the fantasy regular season. He missed the first game of his career this past week, which followed the Falcons bye. Edelman is just "meh" and Amendola is probably close to returning again soon anyway.

If Sean can figure out how to turn all his RB depth into use-able starters elsewhere, I would like his team a lot more. I still have faith he may be able to pull something off.

A Pinch Better
QB points 10 x 22 = 220
WR points 3 x 36 = 108
RB points 11 x 27 = 297
TE points 1 x 15 = 15
Point Total = 640 points


7. Angry Pirates (Last week: 8th)

Last week when I ranked Campbell 8th I may have raised a few eye brows... but alas the Angry Pirates had a solid showing in Week 7 despite a loss (and justified my rank, at least in my mind). You just cant expect AP to have a mere 6 points per week like he did on Monday Night. Josh Gordon also turned in his first gross performance of the year, and C Bell was forced to play Ogbananayna at his RB2 slot. Even with all these gaping holes, C Bell put up 114. I like Fleener even more than I did before (Wayne injury) and Kendall Wright is turning into a trade-able asset. I still may be higher on this team than others, but there's a lot of potential here. Don't sleep on Russell Wilson... he heated up big time in November and December of last year.

Angry Pirates
QB points 5 x 22 = 110
WR points 7 x 36 = 252
RB points 10 x 27 = 270
TE points 3 x 15 = 45
Point Total = 677 points



8. The Godfather (Last week: 11th)

Finally, Abe got a break. Despite just 103 points, Abe was able to win for the 2nd time this year. RG3 is finally back to being RG3. I expect 20+ point performances on the reg for the rest of the year. Abe has the assets to move in order to upgrade at TE, which is probably his most pressing need right now. With our completely bullshit and unfair waiver wire rules this year, Abe was again able to grab the top Waiver Wire option- Mike James. Mike James is a rookie thrusted into the starting RB role in Tampa. Abe has a lot of assets... the teams that are looking for depth (Eat More Chicken, Boston Patriots, Comeback Story, Crossing Guards) could be hitting up Abe. There's probably not enough time left for Abe to make the playoffs, however he is in Prime position to play spoiler starting this week vs Sean.


The Godfather
QB points 6 x 22 = 132
WR points 8 x 36 = 288
RB points 4 x 27 = 108
TE points 2 x 15 = 30
Point Total =  558 points



9. A1 Providers (Last week: 9th)

On Sundays I usually follow along with the fantasy scoring pretty closely. This past week it seemed like all afternoon Paul's team kept scoring and popping up on the stat sheet. He ended up with a really cute week at 128 points. Here's the problem though... Paul's team lacks the upside it takes to win the championship. I thought for sure after the week I would look back and Paul would have dropped a 150 bomb. To cover myself, it's not impossible to think that Paul would win this year, but there's no way this team can string together 3 straight weeks of 130+ football. Paul's team lacks consistency, and consistency is the key to winning fantasy championship. Plus, Paul has a brutal schedule down the stretch. At 3-4, Paul really needs to take care of business this week vs Dan. Next week vs the Boston Patriots Paul will be missing Cruz and Gore. So basically if Paul loses this week and falls to 3-5, there's a good chance he loses in week 9 which takes him to 3-6... That leaves 4 weeks left. 3 out of those 4 weeks he has to play Adam, Jenna, and Bill. Even if he was able to win all 4 of those matchups (LOL) that would take him to a 7-6 record (unless he wins Weeks 8 and 9). Probably not hacking it


A1 Providers
QB points 2 x 22 = 44
WR points 4 x 36 = 144
RB points 9 x 27 = 243
TE points 4 x 15 = 60
Point Total = 491 points




10. the rental guys  (Last week: 10th)

Dan is in almost the exact same situation as Paul. He's 3-4 and faces Adam, Bill, and Jenna before the season is over. The Boykin pick and pop was a great play this past week... In fact I think Boykin will likely hold value even when James Jones returns.

The reality is that this team is averaging 103 points per week over the last 4 weeks. Dan is fortunate to be 2-2 over that span... but going .500 with low point totals is barely enough to stay afloat. Larry Fitz isnt right. MJD and D Willy are gross RB options. Stacy is a nice player, but not a difference maker. Kaepernick is slowly coming around which is nice, but his growth is somewhat cancelled out by Jordan Cameron's regression.

Over the first 4 weeks Cameron had 96 points.
Over the last 3 weeks he has just 25 points.

The QB changes and adjusting defenses can account for the downward trend, although moving forward I still see Jordan Cameron as a top 6 TE option every week.


the rental guys
QB points 3 x 22 = 66
WR points 6 x 36 = 216
RB points 1 x 27 = 27
TE points 7 x 15 = 105
Point Total = 414 points



11. Boston Patriots (Last week: 5th)

Wow. I say this every week but.... more bad luck for Mr. B. For the second consecutive week the Boston Patriots lose a stud WR. First Randall Cobb now Reggie Wayne. This team was already thin before, now it's teetering on the edge of disaster. Brandon LaFell and Brandon Gibson cant be in your starting lineup if you expect to win. I don't like Chris Johnson, and I HATE Pierre Thomas, so basically I really hate this team. There's only 3 reasons I didn't move these Patriots to the lowest spot in the ranks:

1. Antonio Brown
2. LeSean McCoy
3. QB/TE depth

There are multiple teams in the league that Mr B could trade with... He has the assets it would take to right the ship but I'm not sure he has the creativity or trading will power to make that happen.


Boston Patriots
QB points 8  x 22 = 176
WR points 1 x 36 = 36
RB points 3 x 27 = 81
TE points 10 x 15 = 150
Point Total =  443 points



12. Comeback Story  (Last week: 12th)

Donny has had the lowest score in the league an astonishing 4 out of 8 weeks this year. Clunker after clunker after clunker. The one area of strength on this team is at TE... T Gonz and J Reed are both top 8 options the rest of the way out. Donny could/should trade one of these guys away... he needs help at pretty much every other position. His WR core will stabilize after bye's and when they get healthy and same with the RBs. The problem is this isn't happening anytime soon. As I said above, Donny is playing Team Ice Cream this week which you can basically assume is a loss. You can also pencil in a loss in week 10 and 13 (Crossing Guards and Tahiti Loungers) so essentially Donny is going to have to get lucky if he wants to finish any better than 5-8.


Comeback Story
QB points 4 x 22 = 88
WR points 2 x 36 = 72
RB points 2 x 27 = 54
TE points 9 x 15 = 135
Point Total = 349 points




October 21, 2013

Pats got jobbed


Anyone not under a rock knows the Pats somehow lost to the Jets yesterday in New Jersey. In OT, the Jets set up to attempt a career long 56 yard field goal for Nick Folk, which would have won the game. First, this was a stupid call by Rex Ryan. If I'm the coach I punt the ball and play the field position game. You don't want to give the ball to Brady if he only needs 20 yards to set up a FG.

Anyway, Folk of course missed that 56 yard attempt. Wasn't even close. And then this happened:




Pats #94 Chris Jones (who actually had a nice game up to this point) was flagged for a 15 yard personal foul for pushing his own player into the "pile" on this 56 yard FG attempt.

Everyone was confused when this happen. The TV guys said they have never seen a call like this in 15 years. After a ton of confusion it was realized that Jones was being called for the penalty under a new rule that started this year. The rule is in place for the protection of the players.

After about the 63rd replay you could KIND OF see Jones leaning into his teammate. His arms weren't fully extended but he definitely pushed the momentum forward.

So Jones was flagged, the Jets got the automatic first down, and after a couple more plays Folk buried the game winning 42 yarder.


Was it a penalty? I guess so. I'm not even really ready to say "Yes it was for sure a violation of the rule" but the ref was standing right there and seemingly staring directly at the violation. (kinda seemed like he was looking to make that exact call, no?)

There have been over 400 XP's and FG's attempted this year. This rule has never been enforced. Not once. This Pats-Jets game was the first time the called was ever made. On a game deciding FG.  Are you kidding me? Does anyone here really believe this is the first time all year anyone has violated the rule? C'mon now. That's a joke. Complete and utter joke.

This "infraction" didn't effect the play at all. It didn't give the Pats any advantage during the play whatsoever.If it had, I can certainly see justification for the flag.  BUT that wasn't the case. Folk would have badly missed that FG even with Jones off the field.

Here's where my experience and an on-ice hockey official kicks in. First let me say this. Anyone that ever says "A penalty is a penalty no matter when it is in the game" has no idea how to officiate or control a game whatsoever. Sometimes a trip in the first period is called, but the exact same play in the 3rd or OT wouldn't be penalized. Pretty basic stuff for any knowledgeable sports fan. And for the record, I learned this at an elite ref camp in LA that is run by NHL officials. So it's legit.

To bring it back to the Pats-Jets... I think you see my point... even if Jones was in violation of the rule by the letter of the law, the refs truly should have let this go. I GUARANTEE that NFL refs let more go when more is on the line. For example, a ref is going to allow slightly more contact on deep passes later in the game. Or, in a playoff game, they will allow a lot more contact at the line than normal. Kinda goes along with the  "Let them play"  mentality. You DON'T make a shady game deciding call on a new rule that's never been enforced before. It's wrong.

Oh and then there's the thing where Bill Belichick said the rule only applies to players who are on the line of scrimmage. Jones was not on the line of scrimmage. I dont know who is right and who is wrong but that hardly matters. The bottom line is the Pats got jobbed.

***1:30pm update*****


Bert Breer just tweeted out that the refs were told to watch for a push by the NE field goal blocking unit.

This adds a new element to my opinion on this matter. I am going to assume that the reffing crew or Umpire or somebody who "was told to watch for the push" had relayed this info to the Patriots. In that case, the Patriots and/or Chris Jones are really, really dumb for doing something they knew the refs would be looking for. They deserve to lose from stupidity alone.

As a referee, you're job isn't just to call penalties but to prevent them where possible as well. If the refs knew the Pats player may be pushing, they really should have told Belichick or a captain on the Pats to make sure they didnt push. That's what all refs do. They do what they can to prevent penalties and call them if necessary.

If the refs DIDN'T tell the Pats to make sure they didn't push at the line, then shame on them for this whole thing. The refs failed miserably if this is the case. They allowed a penalty to decide the game when it could have been prevented.










October 16, 2013

Dirty D Week 7 Power Ranks

The Tiered Edition



Tier 1
In this tier, find the best teams. All of which are sure to make the playoffs and it's likely 2 of these teams will grab the bye's: 


1. Team Ice Cream
Another crappy QB performance but this time it didn't matter. Justin Blackmon is here to stay and just when you thought Adam's team couldn't get stronger... he goes out and adds Calvin Johnson. My opinion on this team hasn't changed- very high ceiling and millions of assets but the starting lineup can still be improved with 2 for 1's.


2. Tahiti Loungers 
Wow, my team is consistent. I haven't had the blow up weeks that other teams have experienced so far this year, but you wont see me complaining too much. 140 points this past week with an egg from Jimmy. I know this team has a 200 point effort in it eventually... one of these weeks it will all come together. Week 7, though, isn't going to be that week. My Saints are on a bye so if I win this week (I'm actually the underdog), it's gravy.

3. Eat More Chicken (Last Week: 1st)
Jenna's team- like Adam's- has a high ceiling but its weeks like this past one that would scare me as an owner. 104 was Jenna's lowest output of the season- but for now it looks like a 1 point win. The cowboys didn't have a great game so it was a "meh" week for Jenna. Whats shocking is that she had to start Mike Tolbert, and it actually worked out. Tolbert was started in only 1% of leagues and he ended up doubling his point total for the season, with  18 points (led her team.) Just straight luck right there for Jenna. Another incredibly lucky move- Jenna started Mason Crosby- the week's highest scoring kicker- over Blair Walsh. Walsh is the consensus #1 ranked fantasy kicker so I have no idea what Jenna was thinking but, surprise,surprise, it worked out for her.



Tier 2
In this tier find "Unlucky but Good" teams. Both of these teams have the rosters it takes to make it to the playoffs, but bad luck and/or bad timing have side-railed these teams so far. 


4. The Crossing Guards
Whoa. #RevengeOfTheNerds. Bill dropped a franchise record 187 bomb on Campbell's face this past week. Those who exploded for Bill: Vernon Davis (44) V Jax (34) Cam (30) Lynch (30) and AJ Green (24).  This huge week vaulted Bill into a familiar spot- 7th place. 2-4 record with the 4th most points for and most points against.... needless to say this is a bad week for me to run into Bill. This week isn't a must win for Bill, but he cant afford too many more losses. Easy schedule down the stretch will be nice, but obviously any win Bill can get before the 3 bunnys in weeks 10-11-12 (Donny, Dan Paul) would be a nice bonus.


5. Boston Patriots
Worst. Luck. Ever. Listen, does Mr. B deserve to win with just 104 points? No. But when you look at how the week played out... Mr. B got screwed again- this time suffering a 1 point loss on MNF to Jenna. On top of that, Randall Cobb is basically dead for fantasy purposes in 2013 so things aren't looking up here. It makes no sense that Mr. B is carrying an extra TE and QB when he needs help at other positions. I'm hoping to see some movement here. The "easy" part of the schedule is coming up for this team... at 2-4 Mr B needs to put together a few wins if he wants to have a shot at the playoffs.



Tier 3
In this tier we have a few teams that have a decent amount of potential, but for some reason or the other just cant seem to put it all together...yet. 

6. A Pinch Better
Luckily for Sean his opponent was weak this week... 111 points usually means a loss. DeSean Jackson and Arian Foster are studs... both are near the top in their positional ranks and both are matchup-proof starters. Finley is probably going to benefit from the Cobb injury so that's a positive sign...What really hurt this team was that Demarco Murray (Surprise!) got injured. He's not expected to miss major time but this is a guy who has a long history of not staying healthy. I'm not comfortable w/ him if I own him. On top of that Roddy White looks like he may not play this upcoming week (after their bye) so that sucks. I'm starting to think Roddy just isn't the same Roddy this year. Luckily for Sean, Amendola got ROCKED and will miss more time, which means Edelman will continue to be a viable PPR option.

7. Victorious Secret
The RB drama continued this week for Kait. The good news is it looks like Stevan Ridley may be back...He was a BEAST this past week on Kait's bench. The bad news is is that T Rich had another slow game and I'm starting to lose faith in him as a starter. It's CRAZY that a talented starting RB for a run-heavy team cant produce fantasy numbers. CJ Spiller was on a limited snap count but still produced 8 fantasy points... If only these 3 guys were themselves Kait's team would be stacked. Her 4-2 record afford her a little time to right the ship. Another major disappointment is one Robert Gronkowski. He is officially screwing over Kait. Not that is cost her a loss this week, but she needs her stud TE to get back ASAP. Peyton Manning has kept Kait afloat thus far... its not a coincidence that he had a slow week and so did Kait. Percy Harvin is simmering nicely on this bench.

8.  Angry Pirates 
Ick. Gross effort from this team. I'm giving C-ball one more week to justify this rank. Dwayne Bowe absolutely sucks... I'm betting C Bell is kinda pissed he "threw in" Justin Blackmon in that trade with Adam a couple weeks ago. Angry Pirates in 2013 are likely to be a team that misses the playoffs, but breaks hearts down the stretch. With AP, Decker, Sproles, and Gordon this team can make some noise. Russell Wilson may be poised for a big 2nd half...if that's the case maybe, MAYBE this team can squeak into the playoffs. 




Tier 4  
This is the "My team sucks but I still think they are good and still foolishly think I have a chance to make the playoffs" tier. 



9. A1 Providers
Gross week for Paul. Not even really much to say here. Matt Ryan is just a guy now. Ray Rice is somehow a shitty RB all of the sudden.... I dont know WTF is up with him. This past week Paul got a combined 27 points from Rice, Gore, and Cruz. He is going to need these 3 studs to put up closer to 20 each per week to even have a chance to compete. These next 2 weeks are critical for Paul... With Donny and Dan on the schedule Paul needs to win both to stay competitive.

10. the rental guys
Injury city. After losing Julio for the season, Both James Jones AND Cecil Shorts left their games early with ailments. Both players seem to have avoided long term injury, but their low totals were a big reason why Dan scored just 80 points. Those 80 points were somehow good enough to win this week... actually it'as the 3rd lowest winning score all time in our league. I don't see this team making the playoffs.. with Adam, Bill, Jenna, and Mr. B on the remaining schedule, Dan is going to need more luck like this past week to eek out wins. 



Tier 5
The "is 2014 here yet?" tier



11. The Godfather
Abe actually scored the 4th most points in the league this past week... but you simply cant expect to win with just 120 points. Megatron had a very weak game... he wasnt used sparingly. It would have been much better for Abe had Megatron been ruled out and didnt play, of course when someone like Mega is active its nearly impossible to sit him even if you think he will be limited. Colston put up another dud and with that, Abe traded these 2 WR studs away. In return comes Demaryius Thomas and Keenen Allen...2 guys I love. They should give Abe a better chance of winning in the short term, so I like the move. RG3 is close to coming around I think, and I also like the direction that Gio is headed. This team shouldn't be 1-5, but it is what it is. I expect Abe to crush dreams down the stretch, starting this week with Kait.

12. Comeback Story 
Well, the 2 week outburst was certainly short lived. After averaging 140 points in weeks 5 and 6, Donny dropped way down back to his normal, abysmal point total numbers. Danny Amendola is now concussed and out... pretty much turned out to be a complete waste of a draft pick. There's no doubt that Donn'ys team will get a boost when T Gonz is back this week from his bye, but still, this team lacks playmakers. Donny is basically relying each week on a monster individual performances from inconsistent guys with high ceilings. That's not a winning strategy. Over the next 7 weeks Donny has to play against Adam, Me, Jenna, Mr B and Bill. There's basically a 0% chance this team makes the playoffs.