October 23, 2013

Dirty D Week 8 Power Ranks

This week's version of the Power Rank is exciting. I had a really tough time ranking the middle teams,  so I decided to go about a more mathematical way of looking at the league this week.

First, I  assigned points to each team based on position rank (moving forward ranks).

To make sure these ranks are weighted properly to the position value, I used the following:

36% weight on WR
27% weight on RB
22% weight on QB
15% weight on TE

The reason I valued WR the highest is because most of the time, teams are starting 3 WRs per week, 2 RBs, 1 QB and 1 TE

Here are the results:

(Remember, this is based on how I personally rank these players moving forward)

QB Ranks:
12 points- Victorious Secret (Peyton)
11 points- Tahiti Loungers (Brees)
10 points- A Pinch Better (Rodgers)
9 points- Crossing Guards (Cam)
8 points- Boston Patriots (Stafford/Rivers)
7 points- Eat More Chicken (Romo)
6 points- The Godfather (RG3)
5 points- Angry Pirates (Wilson)
4 points- Comeback Story (Brady)
3 points- the rental guys (Kaepernick)
2 points- A1 Providers (Matt Ryan)
1 point- Team Ice Cream (Eli/QBBC)

WR Ranks
12 points- Tahiti Loungers (Marshall/Welker/Jordy/Randle)
11 points- Team Ice Cream (Megatron/Blackmon/Garcon/Colston/Stevie)
10 points- Crossing Guards (Green/V Jax/ T Smith)
9 points- Eat More Chicken (Dez/Andre/Bolden/Hopkins)
8 points- The Godfather (Thomas/Allen/Moore/Thompkins/Jennings)
7 points- Angry Pirates (Decker/Gordon/Wright/Wallace/Bowe)
6 points-  the rental guys (Fitz/Shorts/Jones/Boykin/DHB/Floyd)
5 points- Victorious Secret (Percy/Nicks/Hartline/Douglas)
4 points- A1 Providers (Cruz/Smith/Williams/Austin/Hill)
3 points- A Pinch Better (D Jax/Roddy/Edelman)
2 points- Comeback Story (Hilton/Amendola/Jeffery/Williams/Sanders)
1 point- Boston Patriots (Brown/Gibson/Lafell)

RB Ranks
12 points- Team Ice Cream (JC/Reggie/Vereen/J Bell)
11 points- A Pinch Better (Foster/Tate/F Jax/DMC/Murray/Mathews)
10 points- Angry Pirates (AP/Sproles/Ball)
9 points- A1 Providers (Gore/Rice/Rodgers/Hunter/McGahee)
8 points- Victorious Secret (Ridley/Richardson/Spiller/Woodhead)
7 points- Crossing Guards (Lynch/ Helu/ Ivory/ Powell/ Bolden)
6 points- Tahiti Loungers (Lacy/Ellington/Wilson/Brown/Brown/Pierce)
5 points- Eat More Chicken (Forte/Miller/Tolbert/Jacobs)
4 points- The Godfather (Gio/Moreno/James/Randle)
3 points- Boston Patriots (McCoy/CJ?K/PT Loser/Blount)
2 points- Comeback Story (Morris/S Jax/Mendenhall/ Richardson)
1 point- the rental guys (Bell/Stacy/MJD/DWilly/Snelling)

TE Ranks
12 points- Tahiti Loungers (Graham)
11 points- Victorious Secret (Gronk)
10 points- Boston Patriots (Thomas/Gates)
9 points- Comeback Story (T Gonz/ Reed)
8 points- Crossing Guards (V Davis)
7 points-  the rental guys (Cameron)
6 points- Eat More Chicken (Witten)
5 points- Team Ice Cream (Bennett)
4 points- A1 Providers (Miller)
3 points- Angry Pirates (Fleener)
2 points- The Godfather (Olsen/Graham)
1 point- A Pinch Better (Cook)

After weighing out these ranks, here are the results:

1. Tahiti Loungers- 1,016 points
2. Crossing Guards- 867
3. Victorious Secret- 825
4. Team Ice Cream- 817
5. Eat More Chicken- 703
6. Angry Pirates- 677
7. A Pinch Better- 640
8. The Godfather- 558
9. A1 Providers- 491
10. Boston Patriots- 443
11. the rental guys- 414
12. Comeback Story- 349

Those would/should be my Power Ranks, except they don't take into account D/ST, Kickers, and of course, most importantly, potential from future transactions.

What jumps off the page is Team Ice Cream checking in at #4. I've had Adam at or near the top of my Power Ranks all year, but he ranks lower here for a couple reasons.

1. These ranks don't take into account D/ST and Adam has an elite option in KC that averages 20 points per week.

2. These ranks don't necessarily take into account depth. For example, Adam could trade away Marques Colston for Jordan Reed and he probably wouldn't lose any points at WR but he would gain a few points at TE. So basically these ranks are based on the rosters as they currently stand . Right now Adam has Eli Manning at QB... I expect him to acquire a better option before the deadline and that's the type of stuff I normally account for in Power Ranks that cant be assigned a numerical value. Another great example is the Boston Patriots. Mr. B could trade away the combo of Rivers/Gates for an impact starting WR. This wouldn't really affect his QB and TE ranks (He has Stafford and J Thomas) but it would certainly help his WR score.  Same goes for Donny and his 2 Tight Ends. He can trade one away and improve his score at another position.

Now, lets move on to my official Power Ranks for this week:

1. Team Ice Cream (Last week: 1st)

Another week, another blow out win for Adam. This is the 4th week Adam has finished as the highest or second highest scoring team. This time it was the newly acquired Calvin Johnson who led the way, with a monster bounce-back performance (42 points.) Adam is the first team to eclipse the 1,000 point mark this season....not like he's even needed it, though. Adam's opponents are only averaging 108 points per week, the lowest in the league. Adam may have lost Doug Martin for the season, but he's loaded at RB so it's not enough to give me any reason to drop Adam in the ranks. This week Adam gets comeback story... If there was ever such a thing as a free win, you're about to see it. The league's best vs. the league's worst.

Team Ice Cream
QB points 1 x 22 = 22
WR points 11 x 36 = 396
RB points 12  x 27 = 324
TE points 5 x 15 = 75
Point Total = 817 points

2. Tahiti Loungers (Last week: 2nd)

Week 7 was brutal for me. It started with a 3 point dud by Andre Ellington, and my QB/TE fill-in combo only yielded 19 points... easily the lowest of the season (Brees/Graham on bye.) My WRs were also pedestrian, 13-15-16 points from Marshall-Nelson-Welker is just meh. That's the best WR trio in our league so they need to do a better job for me. I traded for Blair Walsh and he immediately reminded me of why there is little difference between fantasy kickers. 1 freaking point for the consensus best kicker. Moving forward, I am sure this 104 point output will be my lowest of the season.  To compliment my bona fide super studs (Brees/Graham/Marshall/Welker/Jordy),  It looks like I can count on Eddie Lacy to put up RB1 numbers the rest of the way. I also love having Ruben Randle as my WR4 and I'm only 2 weeks away from getting back David Wilson and/or Andre Brown. I wouldn't trade my roster for anyone's.

Tahiti Loungers
QB points 11 x 22 = 242
WR points 12 x 36 = 432
RB points 6 x 27 = 162
TE points 12 x 15 = 180
Point Total =  1,016 points

3. Crossing Guards (Last week: 4th)

#AutoBill is a buzz saw right now. For the second week in a row this team scored the most points in the league. The scoring started early and often with monster performances full of long TDs. AJ Green and V Jax both went off and scored a combined 70 points. No one else really had a huge game for Bill (his defense had a nice game with 17) but make no mistake about it- this is one of the best teams in the league. Top 5 QB. Killer WR trio. High Upside TE.  Stud RB1 plus a bunch of fine options. Raise your hand if you wish your team was autodrafted...

Crossing Guards
QB points 9 x 22 = 198
WR points 10 x 36 = 360
RB points 7 x 27 = 189
TE points 8 x 15 = 120
Point Total =  867 points

4. Eat More Chicken (Last week: 3rd)

Jenna has averaged 112 points over the past 2 weeks, but still managed to escape with 2 wins and remain undefeated. AP only needed 13 points on MNF to hand Jenna her first loss but alas, that didn't happen. Matt Forte is a beast... If I was re drafting right now he would be a top 3 RB pick. Lamar Miller though, is a different story. Mired in an inexplicable time-share, his value is capped and he is a weak RB2 option. This team has quite literally no depth, so a week like this one coming up (Andre Johnson and Matt Forte on bye) is a tough test that I don't think Jenna will handle well. Her team has studs who of course can always blow up... but I don't like how top heavy this team is. I expect Jenna to lose to me this week, but with a very, very soft schedule down the stretch there's no chance Jenna misses the playoffs.

Eat More Chicken
QB points 7 x 22 = 154
WR points 9 x 36 = 324
RB points 5 x 27 = 135
TE points 6 x 15 = 90
Point Total = 703 points

5. Victorious Secret (Last week: 7th)

Kait has the team that on paper looks wayyyyyy better than it has shown on Sundays. Trent Richardson/CJ Spiller/Stevan Ridley/Danny Woodhead should be the best RB crew in the league. We'll see which one of these former studs can find their golden touch for the second half of the fantasy season. My guess is at least 2 out of the 3 guys end up with respectable 2013 fantasy numbers. Gronk came back this week and put his his standard 20 points per week... on top of that Percy Harvin is actually expected to play in Week 8. With the return of these 2 PPR studs, Kait is looking solid. With a 4-3 record and a hot/cold roster... Kait should flirt with the playoff cut line right down to the wire. Here's here remaining schedule:

Week 8- Crossing Guards
Week 9- Eat More Chicken
Week 10- Angry Pirates
Week 11- Tahiti Loungers
Week 12- Boston Patriots
Week 13- A Pinch Better.

Based on my rankings above, that's at least 4 matchups against playoff bound teams. Every win is going to be huge for Kait... Hell, every point will be important because I'm thinking Victorious Secret is a team that's legit right on the bubble for the playoffs this year and may get in or left out based on a tie breaker.

Victorious Secret
QB points 12 x 22 = 264
WR points 5 x 36 = 180
RB points 8 x 27 = 216
TE points 11 x 15 = 165
Point Total = 825 points

6. A Pinch Better (Last week: 6th)

Sean's team strength is clearly at RB. He has a stud (Foster), studs when healthy (Murray, DMC), solid secondary options (F Jax, Mathews) and top tier handcuff  (Tate.)

The problem here is that Sean is bleeding everywhere else. Yes, he has Aaron Rodgers and I ranked him 3rd moving forward but this going to Aaron Rodgers who:

-finally has a RB to lean on (Go, Lacy! woo hoo)
-is missing his top receiver in Randall Cobb
-is missing his top TE Jermichael Finley
-is  missing James Jones for at least 1 more week

AKA this isn't the Aaron Rodgers Sean picked in the 2nd round of the draft. What's worse is Sean actually owns Jermichael Finely too,  who is probably lost for the rest of the year. He picked up Jared Cook off waivers but this is a big downgrade.

The WR situation here is murky too. DeSean Jackson is great... but he will always have those weeks like this past one where he puts up a dud. If Roddy White comes back healthy, the WR rank here is def too  low, but I truly dont think we see the real Roddy for the rest of the fantasy regular season. He missed the first game of his career this past week, which followed the Falcons bye. Edelman is just "meh" and Amendola is probably close to returning again soon anyway.

If Sean can figure out how to turn all his RB depth into use-able starters elsewhere, I would like his team a lot more. I still have faith he may be able to pull something off.

A Pinch Better
QB points 10 x 22 = 220
WR points 3 x 36 = 108
RB points 11 x 27 = 297
TE points 1 x 15 = 15
Point Total = 640 points

7. Angry Pirates (Last week: 8th)

Last week when I ranked Campbell 8th I may have raised a few eye brows... but alas the Angry Pirates had a solid showing in Week 7 despite a loss (and justified my rank, at least in my mind). You just cant expect AP to have a mere 6 points per week like he did on Monday Night. Josh Gordon also turned in his first gross performance of the year, and C Bell was forced to play Ogbananayna at his RB2 slot. Even with all these gaping holes, C Bell put up 114. I like Fleener even more than I did before (Wayne injury) and Kendall Wright is turning into a trade-able asset. I still may be higher on this team than others, but there's a lot of potential here. Don't sleep on Russell Wilson... he heated up big time in November and December of last year.

Angry Pirates
QB points 5 x 22 = 110
WR points 7 x 36 = 252
RB points 10 x 27 = 270
TE points 3 x 15 = 45
Point Total = 677 points

8. The Godfather (Last week: 11th)

Finally, Abe got a break. Despite just 103 points, Abe was able to win for the 2nd time this year. RG3 is finally back to being RG3. I expect 20+ point performances on the reg for the rest of the year. Abe has the assets to move in order to upgrade at TE, which is probably his most pressing need right now. With our completely bullshit and unfair waiver wire rules this year, Abe was again able to grab the top Waiver Wire option- Mike James. Mike James is a rookie thrusted into the starting RB role in Tampa. Abe has a lot of assets... the teams that are looking for depth (Eat More Chicken, Boston Patriots, Comeback Story, Crossing Guards) could be hitting up Abe. There's probably not enough time left for Abe to make the playoffs, however he is in Prime position to play spoiler starting this week vs Sean.

The Godfather
QB points 6 x 22 = 132
WR points 8 x 36 = 288
RB points 4 x 27 = 108
TE points 2 x 15 = 30
Point Total =  558 points

9. A1 Providers (Last week: 9th)

On Sundays I usually follow along with the fantasy scoring pretty closely. This past week it seemed like all afternoon Paul's team kept scoring and popping up on the stat sheet. He ended up with a really cute week at 128 points. Here's the problem though... Paul's team lacks the upside it takes to win the championship. I thought for sure after the week I would look back and Paul would have dropped a 150 bomb. To cover myself, it's not impossible to think that Paul would win this year, but there's no way this team can string together 3 straight weeks of 130+ football. Paul's team lacks consistency, and consistency is the key to winning fantasy championship. Plus, Paul has a brutal schedule down the stretch. At 3-4, Paul really needs to take care of business this week vs Dan. Next week vs the Boston Patriots Paul will be missing Cruz and Gore. So basically if Paul loses this week and falls to 3-5, there's a good chance he loses in week 9 which takes him to 3-6... That leaves 4 weeks left. 3 out of those 4 weeks he has to play Adam, Jenna, and Bill. Even if he was able to win all 4 of those matchups (LOL) that would take him to a 7-6 record (unless he wins Weeks 8 and 9). Probably not hacking it

A1 Providers
QB points 2 x 22 = 44
WR points 4 x 36 = 144
RB points 9 x 27 = 243
TE points 4 x 15 = 60
Point Total = 491 points

10. the rental guys  (Last week: 10th)

Dan is in almost the exact same situation as Paul. He's 3-4 and faces Adam, Bill, and Jenna before the season is over. The Boykin pick and pop was a great play this past week... In fact I think Boykin will likely hold value even when James Jones returns.

The reality is that this team is averaging 103 points per week over the last 4 weeks. Dan is fortunate to be 2-2 over that span... but going .500 with low point totals is barely enough to stay afloat. Larry Fitz isnt right. MJD and D Willy are gross RB options. Stacy is a nice player, but not a difference maker. Kaepernick is slowly coming around which is nice, but his growth is somewhat cancelled out by Jordan Cameron's regression.

Over the first 4 weeks Cameron had 96 points.
Over the last 3 weeks he has just 25 points.

The QB changes and adjusting defenses can account for the downward trend, although moving forward I still see Jordan Cameron as a top 6 TE option every week.

the rental guys
QB points 3 x 22 = 66
WR points 6 x 36 = 216
RB points 1 x 27 = 27
TE points 7 x 15 = 105
Point Total = 414 points

11. Boston Patriots (Last week: 5th)

Wow. I say this every week but.... more bad luck for Mr. B. For the second consecutive week the Boston Patriots lose a stud WR. First Randall Cobb now Reggie Wayne. This team was already thin before, now it's teetering on the edge of disaster. Brandon LaFell and Brandon Gibson cant be in your starting lineup if you expect to win. I don't like Chris Johnson, and I HATE Pierre Thomas, so basically I really hate this team. There's only 3 reasons I didn't move these Patriots to the lowest spot in the ranks:

1. Antonio Brown
2. LeSean McCoy
3. QB/TE depth

There are multiple teams in the league that Mr B could trade with... He has the assets it would take to right the ship but I'm not sure he has the creativity or trading will power to make that happen.

Boston Patriots
QB points 8  x 22 = 176
WR points 1 x 36 = 36
RB points 3 x 27 = 81
TE points 10 x 15 = 150
Point Total =  443 points

12. Comeback Story  (Last week: 12th)

Donny has had the lowest score in the league an astonishing 4 out of 8 weeks this year. Clunker after clunker after clunker. The one area of strength on this team is at TE... T Gonz and J Reed are both top 8 options the rest of the way out. Donny could/should trade one of these guys away... he needs help at pretty much every other position. His WR core will stabilize after bye's and when they get healthy and same with the RBs. The problem is this isn't happening anytime soon. As I said above, Donny is playing Team Ice Cream this week which you can basically assume is a loss. You can also pencil in a loss in week 10 and 13 (Crossing Guards and Tahiti Loungers) so essentially Donny is going to have to get lucky if he wants to finish any better than 5-8.

Comeback Story
QB points 4 x 22 = 88
WR points 2 x 36 = 72
RB points 2 x 27 = 54
TE points 9 x 15 = 135
Point Total = 349 points

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