November 1, 2013

Dirty D Playoff Teams

After this week we only have 4 weeks remaining in the regular season. With that in mind, I did a little research to see what the record of all the playoff teams has been through the last 3 years of the league, to get a better understanding on everyone's chances this year.

In 2010 the playoff teams were:

10-3- BYE
9-4- BYE
7-6* wins tiebreaker between 3 teams

In 2011 the playoff teams were:

11-1-1- BYE
8-5- BYE
6-7* wins tiebreaker between 2 teams

In 2012:

10-3- BYE
8-5- BYE

So basically you need to get at least 7 wins if you want to make the playoffs. 8 wins will definitely get someone in the playoffs, while 7 wins may put you in a tie breaker. Here's what this info means for each team THIS season:

Team Ice Cream 6-1-1
Adam is basically 1 win away from clinching a playoff spot. Plus, he has the most points for in the league so there's virtually 0% Adam misses the playoffs, even if he loses out.

Eat More Chicken 6-1-1
Same deal as Adam. 1 win away from stamping her ticket.

Tahiti Loungers 6-2
Same thing for me. 1 win away or at the most, 2 wins away from the playoffs. Jenna, Adam and I will be competing for the 2 BYEs.

Victorious Secret 5-3
Kait needs at least 2 more wins. Her remaining opponents:

Week 9- Eat More Chicken
Week 10- Angry Pirates
Week 11- Tahiti Loungers
Week 12- Boston Patriots
Week 13- A Pinch Better

If you pencil in a Loss for Week 9 (bye weeks issues plus strong opponent) and Week 11 (Strong opponent) that leaves Kait needing to win 2 out of 3 vs Campbell, Mr B, and Sean.

A Pinch Better 4-4

Sean needs 3 more wins and this is his schedule:

Week 9- vs Bill
Week 10- vs Jenna
Week 11- vs Campbell
Week 12- vs James
Week 13- vs Kait

I don't see Sean winning in week 9 (already down big, has Megatron, Roddy, and Larry Fitz on the bench.)
So that means Sean will likely need to win 3 of the last 4 weeks to get in.  Not an easy task with 2 of the top 3 teams on the schedule. The week 13 matchup Kait vs Sean is shaping up to be HUGE. My guess is Sean will need to win the game to have a chance at a playoff spot.

the rental guys 4-4

Dan also needs at least 3 more wins. His schedule-

Week 9- vs Adam
Week 10- vs Abe
Week 11- vs Bill
Week 12- vs Jenna
Week 13- vs C Bell

Its going to be close. Adam, Bill, Jenna are all strong opponents so Dan has to beat the other 2 and at least one of the big 3. My guess is that this likely wont happen and Dan will miss the playoffs for the first time. There IS a chance a 6-7 team may sneak in the playoffs... if that's the case Dan will likely have a good shot at being that team. (Dan made the playoffs at 6-7 in 2011. The only losing team to ever qualify)

Crossing Guards 3-5 and Boston Patriots 3-5

The 3-5 teams are behind the 8 ball, on the outside looking in right now. Bill and Mr B, however, have had some bad luck. With 1034 and 1026 points, these 2 teams are likely to win a tie breaker vs any of the bubble teams. These guys have to win AT LEAST 3 of the remaining 5 weeks or they won't have a chance. It may take a 4-1 run over the last 4 weeks for either of these teams to make it.

Bills remaining opponents:

Week 9- Sean
Week 10- Donny
Week 11- Dan
Week 12- Paul
Week 13- Adam

Bunny City. Giving Bill the W this week (reasons mentioned above for Sean) and a free W in Week 10 and that brings Bill to 5-5 with 3 weeks left needed 1 or more likely, 2 wins between Dan, Ada, and Paul.

Bill is primed for either a 5th, 6th, or, wait for it, 7th place finish this year.

Mr. B's remaining opponents:

Week 9- Paul
Week 10- James
Week 11- Adam
Week 12- Kait
Week 13-  Abe

If you pencil in a Loss to Adam and I, that means Mr. B would need to win all 3 matchups vs Paul Kait and Abe, and even then with a 6-7 record he's going to have to pray that he's in on a tie breaker for the last spot.

Not expecting this team to make the playoffs.

A1 Providers 3-5 and Angry Pirates 3-5

Unlike the other 3-5 teams, Paul and Campbell aren't going to win any tiebreakers and need to win 4 of the remaining 5 weeks to get in the playoffs.

Campbells remaining opponents:

Week 9- vs James
Week 10- vs Kait
Week 11- vs Sean
Week 12- vs Donny
Week 13- vs Dan

Not looking good for C Bell. Assuming Campbell loses to me hes going to have to win out. If he somehow beats me this week, he's still going to need 3/4 wins to get in. The odds are NOT in Chumpbells favor.

Pauls remaining opponents:

Week 9- vs Mr. B
Week 10- vs Adam
Week 11- vs Abe
Week 12- vs Bill
Week 13- vs Jenna

Ummm....No. Not happening in 2013. Sorry Paul.

The Godfather 2-6 and Comeback Story 2-6 

These teams need to win out AND get help. They both have very low point totals so if they win out and finish 7-6, there's a small chance they still cant get in.

Whats even more interesting is these 2 teams are playing each other THIS WEEK in basically a head to head death match. Abe has a nice 25-0 lead thanks to Gio Bernard, but it's still going to be close.

The Godfather remaining schedule-

Week 9- vs Donny
Week 10- vs Dan
Week 11- vs Paul
Week 12- vs Adam
Week 13- vs Mr. B

Winnable, Winnable, Winnable. Abe could be headed into Week 12 with a 5-6 record and needing 2 wins to get in. Again, it may not be enough to win out but at least Abe has a small chance, only playing 1 really tough matchup (vs Adam in Week 12)

Comeback Story remaining Schedule-

Week 9- vs Abe
Week 10- vs Bill
Week 11- vs Jenna
Week 12- vs Campbell
Week 13- vs James

Good joke. Not happening. Will be lucky to get more than 1 win the rest of the way. Donny does have a chance to spoil Campbell's season in Week 12, though.

So here's my prediction for the playoffs as of right now: 

1. James (11-2)
2. Adam (10-2-1)
3. Jenna (10-2-1)
4. Bill (7-6)
5. Kait (7-6) 
6. Sean (6-7)

7. Dan (6-7)
8. Abe (6-7) 
9. Campbell (5-8)
10. Mr B. (4-9)
11.  Paul (4-9)
12. Donny (2-11)

No comments:

Post a Comment