September 5, 2013

Team Ice Cream RBs vs Comeback Story RBs

I wanted to write a quick blog comparing 2 running back crews for teams in our league.

Team Ice Cream (Adam) RB’s:

Jamaal Charles
Reggie Bush
Darren Sproles
L’eveon Bell
Bernard Pierce

Comeback Story’s (Donny) RBs:

Steven Jackson
Alfred Morris
Daryl Richardson
Chris Ivory
Ronnie Hillman
Daniel Thomas
Jacquizz Rodgers

First, the reason why I’m even looking at this is because Donny thinks he has the best RB depth in the league and I replied “Adam’s RB’s shit all over yours”  Not the greatest language but then again I was shocked anyone could think they had betters RBs than Adam, who spent his first 3 picks in the draft on the position.

Lets Rank all 12 RBs on these 2 teams. Ill rank them in my personal order of preference, and in parenthesis I will list their Expert Consensus RB Rank from Fantasy (Fantasy compiles average rankings from about 100 different sources…. Aka a great way to average out all the experts opinions)

Keep in mind this is PPR, particularly important when ranking a bunch of these guys.

1. Jamaal Charles (3rd overall)
2. Reggie Bush (13th overall)
3. Darren Sproles (12th overall)
4. Steven Jackson (11th overall)
5. Alfred Morris (15th overall)
6. Daryl Richardson (25th overall)
7. Leveon Bell (40th overall)
8. Chris Ivory (29th overall)
9. Bernard Pierce (41st overall)
10. Ronnie Hillman (43rd overall)
11. Jazquizz Rodgers (39th overall)
12. Daniel Thomas (62nd overall)

Big Boys vs Big Boys:

Charles/Bush/Sproles vs Jackson/Morris/Richardson

No one- literally no one- should rather have the trio on the right. Especially in PPR where Sproles and Bush get a big bump and Morris gets a big bump down. Even if you prefer Jackson/Morris over Charles/Bush (highly unlikely,) Sproles over Richardson is an obvious MONSTER advantage. The two cannot be compared. Whats especially telling about all this is the 3 guys we listed should be the weekly play for both these teams. Adam will be able to play all 3 studs and Donny can play S Jax & Morris and Richardson in the flex if he chooses.

Depth guys vs Depth guys

Bell/Pierce vs Ivory/Hillman/Rodgers/Thomas

Ivory and Bell are going to have similar seasons. I know Bell is hurt right now, but when he returns in a couple weeks he is going to be the unchallenged starter for a team that loves to run the ball. Ivory, on the other hand, is a guy I’ve liked in the past on the Saints. He actually has pretty good talent. The problem with him is twofold- 1. The presence of Bilall Powell. You may scoff at this, but Powell will take away carries and TDs, and is in fact currently listed as the Jets starter. 2- It’s the Jets. They are going to be so bad all year that nearly everyone in their offense is fantasy irrelevant. Defenses will key on the run game and force the Jets to try and beat them through the air, which wont happen. The Jets will be down on the scoreboard and forced to abandon the run game. I don’t see Ivory scoring well many weeks and I for one would feel very uncomfortable starting him in my lineup. He’s a bye week filler IMO.

Bernard Pierce is the 2nd best “handcuff” in the league, second only to Ben Tate. Pierce was a rookie last season backing up Ray Rice, but in the last 10 games they played (with Rice healthy), Pierce received 8 carries a game and ended up with  108 carries for 532 yards. That’s a robust 4.9 yards per carry clip, putting Pierce among tops in the league last year. Should Ray Rice go down, Pierce is looking like a weekly low end RB1. Even if Rice stays healthy, Pierce should be an OK bye week fill in.

Hillman is in a 3 RB rotation  in Denver. He cant hold onto the ball, doesn't excel in pass blocking, and isn't a special player. Out of all 3 RBs, hes my least favorite on the Broncos. I would NEVER feel comfortable starting this guy in my lineup unless at least 1 if not both of the other DEN RBs go down. Hillman's value is probably at it's peak right now, because as the season progresses Montee Ball will likely take over.

Jaquizz Rodgers is a nice handcuff for Donny… but this guy has been around and we know what he is. Nothing special and borderline droppable. If S Jax goes down, Rodgers would obviously be alright, but still no more than a weak flex play in my opinion. I’ve followed Rodgers since his Oregon St days, have have believed in him in the past but I wont be fooled again.

I'm convinced Daniel Thomas is nothing more than a handcuff to Miller, despite the mind games Coach Philban has been playing all Fall.  At the very best he will split time with Lamar Miller, but same as Hillman, Thomas' value is RIGHT NOW. Once Miller gets rolling, Thomas' play time will decrease.

So basically what I'm saying is that Hillman and Thomas may look like OK depth guys right now, but as the season progresses both will lose value and will likely be dropped. Since Donny doesn't need either of these guys for the first few weeks (with 4 better options), they practically bring no value to the table when talking about RB depth. Is it better to have these guys as super safety options than not? Sure. Does it matter too much? No.

So after looking into this situation with more detail, I would still choose Adams group of running backs over Donnys 100 out of 100 times in our league format.

The difference in skill at the top of each crew favors Adam SO HEAVILY, that the extra 2 back up rbs on Donnys bench hardly matter.

If ANYONE thinks I'm wrong here and you like Donny's RB squad better, please feel free to e-mail me and let me know why. I'd love to see an opposing view based on facts and evidence.

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