November 15, 2013

Dirty D Week 11 Power Ranks

This past week things got REAL tight in the Dirty D. Adam, Jenna, and myself ALL LOST... which means all the teams in the middle that needed to win, did.

The trade deadline is tonight at 3am EST. Last chance to acquire players off other teams directly.

With that, here are the Power Ranks with 3 weeks left in the regular season:

1. Tahiti Loungers

Here's my potential playoff lineup:

Aaron Rodgers
Wes Welker
Jordy Nelson
Jamaal Charles
Eddie Lacy
Jimmy Graham
Victor Cruz
KC Defense

I dare anyone reading this to find any roster in any league they play in that's better than this one. (12 team PPR)

-I'm not too concerned with the recent slides of Welker and Cruz. Both are proven studs and I'm confident starting these guys with the D on the line (Weeks 15-16)

-I'm also confident in Rodgers coming back healthy before Week 14. I'll be leaning heavily on my GB trio of Rodgers, Jordy, and Lacy.

Since I made the trade for Welker:
(Traded away Spiller, Hartline, Douglas for Welker)

Welker- 18-16-20-BYE-5
Hartline- BYE-12-7-6-10
Douglas- BYE-29-26-11-9
Spiller- 8-4-DNP-18-6


Douglas- 75
Welker- 59
Spiller- 36
Hartline- 35

So basically as you can see through 5 weeks I've clearly lost the trade simply from Douglas himself outscoring Welker. 

2. Crossing Guards

The Crossing Guards won a critical matchup this week, led by it's stars. Marshawn Lynch and AJ Green both exploded, and on a down week in the League overall, those 2 beast performances were enough for Bill.

Cam Newton laid an egg and only produced 5 fantasy points, dont expect much of that moving forward. Vincent Jackson also only had 5 points... while I still like V Jax overall he is going to be VERY up and down with Glennon at QB for the rest of the season. Not the type of player I like having in my lineup.. but when he has a game he HAS A GAME. ( 3 games of 28+ points this year )

Bill is going to get a nice boost from Shane Vereen being back this week. Bill basically stole Vereen from Adam (trading him Vick straight up, a move I didn't like for Adam at the time) and thats the real reason Im keeping Bill at # 2 this week. I expect a nice stretch of games from Vereen on tap.I'd much prefer NOT facing this team in the playoffs.

3. Team Ice Cream

QBBCC. Quarterback by Committee City. Even though Adam  had traded for a QB (Aaron Rodgers) he found himself once again looking for a QB option in week 10. Here is Adam's QB usage each week this year. This my friends, is pure comedy:

Week One- 34 (Eli Manning)
Week Two- 12 (Eli)
Week Three- 3 (Eli)
Week Four- 5 (Dalton)
Week Five-2 (Hoyer)
Week Six- 7 (Eli)
Week Seven- 12 (Eli)
Week Eight- 22 (Rodgers)
Week Nine- 1 (Rodgers)
Week Ten- -3 (Locker)

That 95 points from his QB position in 10 weeks. You CANNOT expect to win if you're only getting 9 points from the highest scoring position in fantasy football. Take away Week 1 and his QB was averaging UNDER SEVEN points per week. SO gross.

Luckily for Adam he's sitting in 1st place and wont finish worse than 3rd, despite this horrid QB Play.

** Adam has rectified his QB situation drastically. Drew Brees is the new slinger here, there's probably no other QB Id rather own Weeks 11-16 than Brees.

Andre Brown looked great in his first game back to the Giants. He toted the rock 30 times and scored a TD. He's the Giants clear early down back, passing down back, AND goal line back, so at the very worst I see him as a middle of the road RB2 for the rest of the season.

Giants RB fantasy points through 8 weeks:

Week One- 9     (Scott 12, Wilson -3)
Week Two- 18   (Scott 11, Jacobs 6, Wilson 1)
Week Three- 6     (Scott 3, Wilson 3)
Week Four- 11   (Wilson 7, Scott 3, Jacobs 1)
Week Five- 8     (Wilson 7, Jacobs 1)
Week Six- 25   (Jacobs 23, Scott 2)
Week Seven- 26   (Hillis 18, Connor 4, Cox 4)
Week Eight- 16   (Hillls 11, Cox 3, Connor 2)

That's an average of almost 15 fantasy points per game with scrubs. Andre Brown isn't crazy talented, but he has boatloads more than Hillis and Jacobs who produced RB2 numbers themselves (combined)

After crushing it in the first half of the season, Adam has somewhat come back down to earth.

Weeks 1-6 average score: 147
Week 7-10 average score: 123

However, that 123 is still higher than what 7 teams have averaged all year.

4. Boston Patriots-

In the Week 8 Power Ranks I had moved this team allll the way down to the #11 spot. Reggie Wayne and Randall Cobb were lost for the year. Brandon Gibson (now gone) and Brandon Lafell were in the starting lineup for this team. I wanted to puke.

But then karma happened.

For all the times we all say "Mr. B has horrible luck", well, he's gotten AWFULLY lucky the past 3 weeks to go 3-0.

And I'm not talking about getting lucky by playing weak teams. I'm talking about picking up and playing scrubs who end up with great games.

Past 3 weeks:

Boston Patriots 150 Opponent 101
Boston Patriots 141 Opponent 87
Boston Patriots  143 Opponent 110

These are the stat lines that jump off the page from the past 3 weeks:

Golden Tate- 26 points in Week 8
Cincy DEF- 26 points in Week 8
Mason Crosby- 15 points in Week 8
Chris Johnson- 38 points in Week 9
Golden Tate- 24 points in Week 10
Pierre Thomas- 29 points in Week 10

Also, not that any of this is fluky, but over the win streak of 3 games Mr B has had excellent play from the following  guys:

Pierre Thomas- 11-15-29
I hate Pierre Thomas. There's no way he continues to average over 18 fantasy points a game. No way. He stepped up nicely for Mr. B but this isn't sustainable... Saints RBs not named in Sproles in a PPR league = no thanks.

Antonio Brown- 17-18-18
Antonio Brown has been a super stud. Hes the #8 WR in the league this year to date (And yes he has had his bye). Mr B grabbed him with his pick in the 6th round of the draft.  Here are the 10 WRs selected before Brown

68th overall- Antonio Brown
67th overall- DeSean Jackson
66th overall- Steve Smith
60th overall- Hakeem Nicks
57th overall- Torrey Smith
56th overall- Jordy Nelson
54th overall- Eric Decker
51st overall- Marques Colston
50th overall- James Jones
48th overall- Dwayne Bowe

Decker, Jordy and Desean are good picks but the rest of the owners who choose these clowns over Antonio Brown should be pissed right now. I called Brown one of the steals of our draft in the draft recap.

5. Eat More Chicken

As per usual, the Cowboys had a slow game so Jenna had a slow week. Her superstar Dez Bryant produced a season low 5 points. He'll be fine (the back injury is somewhat concerning, but remember, Dez has a history of producing through injuries.) Jason Witten, however, is averaging just 6 points a week since October and I'm not sure if he's someone to count on.

Lamar Miller has been crazy disappointing. I know this because I own him in another league. The guy had 2 yards rushing Monday night. Two Yards. The Dolphins don't use him. He's missed 0 games and still has just 70 total points. He's not injured. He's the guy you HATE having on your team because he gives a somewhat viable option but truthfully, it would be better to just move on. This guy is the #34 RB in our league this year. And again, he hasn't missed time. He's already been passed by guys like Roy Helu and Rashad Jennings.

Here's Jennas RB depth chart:

Matt Forte (stud)
Lamar Miller (loser)
Mike Tolbert (wayyyy too TD dependant)

Wr Depth Chart:

Dez (stud)
Andre Johnson (stud)
Anquan Boldin (gross)
DeAndre Hopkins (gross)

If you take away Boldins FREAK Week 1 game (he scored 51 points!) he has averaged just 8.5 points. You NEED more production from that from your flex player.

Basically Jenna is
-whoa crazy crazy thin at RB
-whoa crazy crazy thin at WR
-Meh TE
-Good QB

So I very truly doubt Jenna can win the league with the roster as is. If she gets a bye anything is possible (2 wins are easy to string) but unless something wild happens, Jenna is going to lose to someone at some point. You cant take any 3 week window from Jenna's great season so far and expect to win all 3 of those games.

Week One- 167
Week Two- 142
Week Three- 113

Week Four- 162
Week Five- 163
Week Six- 104

Week Seven- 120
Week Eight- 109
Week Nine- 187

Week Ten- 76

The possible Week 14 Bye means much more to Jenna than either me or Adam. With 3 bunnies on tap (Donny, Dan, Paul) Jenna has a decent chance of making that happen

6. The Godfather

Oh man, its just a damn shame this is probably too little too late. Abe led the league in scoring this past week... his excellent "core 5" came through in the clutch.

D Thomas
K Allen
G Bernard
K Moreno
J Reed

These guys are studs. Add in the high-ceiling RG3 and you're looking at whats likely to be my vote for "Best Roster not in the playoffs"

I sat down with Abe and we charted out what would need to happen for him to make the playoffs. Its a possibility, but very unlikely. What IS nice is that Abe has a solid chance to crush these dreams:

Week 11 vs Paul- The loser of this matchup will officially be eliminated from contention

Week 12 vs Adam- Abe has a decent chance to beat Adam and cause him to miss out on a BYE

Week 13 vs Mr. B- This is a huge matchup. Depending on what Mr B does before this... he could very well need to beat Abe to make the playoffs.

**Its also worth noting Abe has taken over the lead for "Most points against."  Teams are averaging 125 point per week vs Abe this year.

7. Victorious Secret

Mayday...Mayday....Kait has lost 4/5 matchups and averaged just 94 points per week over that stretch.

What seemed to be a sure-fire playoff team in September, Kait is now 5-5 with a low point total and on the outside looking in. Whats even worse news for Kait is that this critical week 11 she is facing my team... an extremely tough matchup.

Weeks 1-5 average score: 126
Weeks 6-10 average score: 94

The main difference for the gap? Peyton Manning.

Weeks 1-5 Peyton Manning average: 35 points
Week 6-10 Peyton Manning average: 23 points

Moving forward Kait is going to be able to FINALLY play Percy. He was actually expected to return a few weeks ago but had a setback.... Kait likely traded away Welker with the idea of replacing him with Percy. Also, Gronk should be a nice difference maker for Kait down the stretch.

One other thing... Danny Woodhead is a beast. A really nice surprise for Kait after T Rich shit the bed and Ridley has been annoying to own. Woodhead is currently the #10 RB in our league this year. Last year on the Pats as their 3rd RB option, Woodhead managed to finish as the #26 RB. He's a player.

8. A Pinch Better

Foster officially being put on IR is actually a good thing for Sean. Now he can play Ben Tate, who is likely to get a full work load each week. Plus he is talented and in a nice running offense. Similar to my thoughts on Andre Brown, I highly doubt Tate finishes outside the top 15 RBs from now until the end of the season.

Sean got lucky as hell this week (and needed it) when Jenna only scored 70 something points. Sean put up under 90 and won... one of the luckiest wins in the league this season.

Roddy White has been a sad, sad story this year. 2013 is nothing like any of his other NFL seasons... Injuries are piling up, the Falcons are falling apart. He's on Revis Island this week. No Julio on the other side.

Because I am writing this on Friday, we already know Sean is heading into Sunday down 37-0 after getting Fleener'd and Wright'd by C Bunny last night. Sean's lineup is this week is weak, so if a loss is assumed that means Sean is 5-6, will be in 7th or 8th place, has a modest point total, and is playing My team next week. GOOD LUCK WITH THAT

9. Angry Pirates

C Bunny finally stopped the bleeding (aka his 4 game losing streak) with a 107 point effort and win this past week.

Listen... this team is so soft and so bunny-like its INSANE! Campbells highest score was in week 1 when he put down 120 points. Let me say that again. 120 is the most amount of points C Bunny has scored in one week all year. 105 point weekly average.

How has this happened? C-Bell had the #1 overall pick. That usually translates to success. Lets re-visit C-Bells first few picks of the draft:

Round 1- AP
Round 2- Demaryius Thomas
Round 3- David Wilson
Round 4- Dwayne Bowe
Round 5- Russell Wilson
Round 6- Deangelo Williams
Round 7- Mike Wallace

Overall, very gross. The failures of D Wilson, Bowe, Wallace, and Williams have crippled this team. I hated C Bells draft, giving him the 3rd worst grade in the league. My thoughts have been justifed.


This week, though, as I mentioned above- Campbells had a great start to Week 11. Fleener had a season high 20 points and K Wright continues to put up PPR numbers in Tennessee.

Lets pencil a win in for C Bunny. That brings him to 5-6. He plays Donny in Week 13. TCBell SHOULD win that game. If he does, hes sitting at 6-6 heading into the final week.

In the final week C Bunny plays Dan. That's a winnable matchup. Lets say he comes through... that puts C Bunny at 7-6 and probably in the playoffs.

That's right, I said it. C Bunny in the playoffs. There's a very real chance of this happening.

10. the rental guys- 

Dan ran into a buzzsaw in Week 10 when he unfortunately got tuned up by the highest scoring tea, in the league. Of course, when only scoring 95 points you expect to lose anyway, but this was a huge loss at a bad time.

I really liked the late week pop and play with Eifert... He should have scored more than the 8 points he got for Dan.

Kapernick only scored 2 points... its the 4th time this year he has been under 10. That's crazy and unacceptable... the offensive scheme (and lack of playmakers) is really hurting Kaepernick's fantasy value. He needs to run to make up for this, but hes only eclipsed 50 rushing yards 3 times this year (with only 3 rushing TDs total)

Moving forward, Dan will need to win at least 2, if not all 3 matchups to get in the playoffs. Bill this week, Jenna next, and he finishes with a matchup vs the C Bunny.

11. Comeback story-

So gross... after exploding for over 150 points in Week 9, Donny came back down to earth and scored a much more familiar 84 points.

Brady and Amendola were on BYE plus Mike James left the game early (and is lost for the season) so Ill give Donny a pass here. Just bad timing.

TY Hilton is going to be exciting moving forward. Hes been a super stud since Reggie Wayne went down.. and hes very talented. I like him as a high end WR2 ROS.

Donny's team is basically irrelevant moving forward. He plays Jenna, Campbell, and myself in the last 3 weeks. C Bunny is out, so the only things Donny can do is possibly upset either Jenna or I and ruin our chance at the Bye. Unfrotunately he doesn't have a chance to knock anyone out this year.

No one will ever match Trevor's AWFUL 2010 season where he went 3-12 averaging 81 points per week and breaking 100 just twice all year. BUT... Donny's 2013 season is going to end up being pretty gross... like bottom 5 in league history. I'm pissed at myself for giving Donny a solid draft rank (6th) cuz looking back it was probably the worst in the league.

12. A1 Providers-

The bachelor came up with a HUGE win last week... he got lucky to win with 94 points.  The low-total win doesn't really do much for Paul...but he still thinks he s going to win out and make the playoffs.

Its too bad Paul left Riley Cooper on the bench... that was actually a GREAT pick up by Paul, possibly the best pick up hes ever made. Over the past 4 weeks here are the top scoring Wrs:

Megatron- 130
AJ Green- 109
Andre Johnson- 93
Riley Cooper- 83

1st I HAVE to point out again what a monster Megatron is. Wow. What a gap.

2nd... Riley Cooper obv isn't in the same class as the other names here... but I do think he continues to produce like a back end WR2 for the ROS. Nick Foles just seems to find him... and somehow hes become the deep threat for the Eagles (D Jax????)

Ellington only had about a dozen touches and the coaching staff re-oterated after the game it was "plenty" for him... which is absolute garbage. Elllington is a beast who need the rock more... but part of the reason I trraded him away is I truly think the AZ coaching staff will limit his carries and continue to let Mendhall play over Ellington. This should be a crime.

Paul has an important matchup in Week 12 vs Bill. Im sure it would feel GREAT to beat Bill down into 7th place and cause him to miss the playoffs again. Also Paul has a chance to beat Jenna in the last week and knock her out of the #1 or #2 seed.

My Updated Projected Standings

Jenna 10-2-1
James 10-3
Adam 9-3-1
Bill 8-5
Campbell 7-6 
Mr. B 6-7

Sean 6-7
Kait 5-8 
Abe 5-8
Dan 4-9
Paul 4-9
Donny 3-10

Based on the following-

Week 11
James over Kait
Adam over Mr B
Jenna over Donny
Campbell over Sean
Abe over Paul
Bill over Dan

Week 12
James over Sean
Adam over Abe
Campbell over Donny
Bill over Paul
Mr. B over Kait
Jenna over Dan

Week 13
James over Donny
Abe over Mr B
Bill over Adam
Sean over Kait
Jenna over Paul
Campbell over Dan

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