November 5, 2013

Week 10 Dirty D Power Ranks

This week for Power Ranks I decided to use a math equation again to try and objectively look at the teams.

I adjusted my grading system slightly from last time. I created a separate "Flex " ranking.

I wanted this to reflect what each teams optimal starting lineup would be, so this doesn't do a good job of taking into account depth. Here's how I weighted out the positions:

QB- 22%
Top 2 WRs- 25%
Top 2 RBs- 25%
TE- 12%
Flex- 16%

**Again this time I did NOT account for D/ST or Kickers. This hurt Team Ice Cream quite a bit...Adam has a monster weekly advantage with the KC defense. Outside of KC, there really is no "difference-making" D/ST this year. Even a team like Seattle hasn't produced a huge advantage thus far. So, I WILL take D/ST account when looking at Adam's team only.

QB Ranks
12 points- Victorious Secret (Peyton)
11 points- Tahiti Loungers (Brees)
10 points- Crossing Guards (Cam)
9 points- Boston Patriots (Stafford/Rivers)
8 points-  Eat More Chicken (Romo/Luck)
7 points- Angry Pirates (Wilson)
6 points- Comeback Story (Brady)
5 points- Team Ice Cream (Rodgers)
4 points- The Godfather (RG3)
3 points- the rental guys (Kaepernick)
2 points- A Pinch Better (Pryor/Vick)
1 point- A1 Providers (Matt Ryan)

WR Ranks
12 points- Eat More Chicken (Dez Bryant & Andre Johnson)
11 points- Tahiti Loungers (Wes Welker & Victor Cruz)
10 points- The Godfather (Demaryius Thomas & Keenan Allen)
9 points- Crossing Guards (AJ Green & Vincent Jackson)
8 points- Angry Pirates (Eric Decker & Josh Gordon)
7 points- A Pinch Better (Megatron & Larry Fitzgerald)
6 points- A1 Providers (Brandon Marshall & Steve Smith)
5 points- Team Ice Cream (DeSean Jackson & Pierre Garcon)
4 points- Boston Patriots (Antonio Brown & Brandon Lafell)
3 points- Comeback Story (Danny Amendola & TY Hilton)
2 points- the rental guys (Cecil Shorts & James Jones)
1 point-  Victorious Secret (Brian Hartline & Harry Douglas)

RB Ranks
12 points- Team Ice Cream (Jamaal Charles & Reggie Bush)
11 points- Crossing Guards (Marshawn Lynch & Shane Vereen)
10 points- The Godfather (Knowshon Moreno & Gio Bernard)
9 points- Boston Patriots (LeSean McCoy & CJ?K)
8 points- Eat More Chicken (Matt Forte & Lamar Miller)
7 points- the rental guys (Zac Stacy & Leveon Bell)
6 points- Tahiti Loungers (Eddie Lacy & Ray Rice)
5 points- A1 Providers (Frank Gore & Andre Ellington)
4 points- Angry Pirates (AP & Darren Sproles)
3 points- Victorious Secret (Stevan Ridley & CJ Spiller)
2 points- A Pinch Better (DeMarco Murray & Houston RB)
1 point- Comeback Story (Alfred Morris & Steven Jackson)

FLEX Ranks
12 points- Tahiti Loungers (Jordy Nelson)
11 points- Victorious Secret (Danny Woodhead)
10 points- Comeback Story (Terrance Williams)
9 points- Crossing Guards (Torrey Smith)
8 points- the rental guys (Fred Jackson)
7 points- Eat More Chicken (Anquan Boldin)
6 points- The Godfather (Aaron Dobson)
5 points- A Pinch Better (Roddy White)
4 points- Boston Patriots (Pierre Thomas)
3 points- Team Ice Cream (Ryan Mathews)
2 points- Angry Pirates (Mike Wallace)
1 points- A1 Provides (Jaquizz Rodgers)

TE Ranks
12 points- Tahiti Loungers (Graham)
11 points- Victorious Secret (Gronk)
10 points- Boston Patriots (Thomas/Gates)
9 points- Crossing Guards (V Davis)
8 points- Eat More Chicken (Witten)
7 points-  the rental guys (Cameron)
6 points- The Godfather (Reed)
5 points- Comeback Story (T Gonz)
4 points- Team Ice Cream (Bennett/Olsen)
3 points- A1 Providers (Miller)
2 points- Angry Pirates (Fleener)
1 point- A Pinch Better (Clark)

Here are the raw point totals from the above ranking system:

Tahiti Loungers- 1,003
Crossing Guards- 972
Eat More Chicken- 884
The Godfather- 756
Boston Patriots- 707
Victorious Secret- 672
Team Ice Cream- 631
Angry Pirates- 510
the rental guys- 503
Comeback Story- 452
A Pinch Better- 361
A1 Providers- 349

and, based mostly on that, here is this weeks version of Power Ranks-

1. Tahiti Loungers

With Welker and Cruz on bye, my team struggled it's way to 128 points- my 3rd lowest output of the season. Ray Rice only managed 6 points and looked awful again. I'm going to look pretty stupid trading away Ellington and Marshall for Cruz and Rice if Rice doesn't figure shit out by playoff time. I still refuse to believe someone who has been so dominant in the past can be held so far down for so long. Rice has years of production working in his favor. In other news for my team, it looks like Jimmy Graham is completely healthy and Eddie Lacy keeps rolling his way up the RB ranks. Most sites have Lacy listed as a top 6 RB moving forward. Trading Kenbrell Thompkins for Lacy straight up is likely going to end up as the most lopsided trade in the League this year.

2. Crossing Guards

The highest rank #AutoBill has received from me all year... which is admittingly somewhat odd timing considering the shitty week Bill had. He scored just 98 points but escaped with a crucial victory. A loss this past week would have been crushing for Bill... he can't really afford more than 1 more loss the rest of the regular season. The fact remains that Bill's core of Cam-AJ-VJax-VD-Lynch is explosive and dangerous. Look for Bill to go a mini-run here late in the season to secure his first playoff birth since has has maybe the easiest 3 week stretch imaginable- Donny, Dan, and Paul.

3. Eat More Chicken

Another HUGE week for Jenna. This year she has gone over 160 four times. Shes also scored under 120 four times so this is pretty much the definition of a "boom or bust" team. Jenna's team had\s basically no depth whatsoever, but her studly starters are getting it done right now. Forte, Dez, and Andre MAY be the best  trio in the league. Who knows. Securing a 1st round BYE is crucial for Jenna... it will be a LOT easier for this team to win 2 games in a row instead of 3. Only time will tell if this team is lucky enough to avoid any major injuries to it's starters which is critical because of the lack of depth.

4. Team Ice Cream

Wow. What a week for Team Ice Cream. First and most importantly, the loss of Justin Blackmon is huge. He was averaging over 20 points per game.  Part of the reason why Adam was able to trade away Megatron for an upgrade at QB was his depth at WR. All of the sudden, Adam is scrambling to find a viable 3rd WR. This week he picked Doug Baldwin and that worked out nicely in his flex position. This is going to be a weekly game, though. Adam no longer has a no brainer to plug in at flex.  The other major news here is the Aaron Rodgers injury. THANKFULLY it seems as if Rodgers will likely be back for the fantasy playoffs. Adam will have to make due with Free Agent fodder until then, but its not TOO big of a deal because Adam is 7-1-1 and essentially has already locked up a playoff spot.

At least for the next month or so this is NOT the same team that has paced the league in scoring through 9 weeks. Adam has an easy matchup this week vs Paul but has 3 solid opponents down the stretch. Right now Adam is crossing his fingers and hoping he can hang on to a 1st round BYE. Also worth noting is that Adam has had BY FAR the easiest schedule in the league this year. Teams are averaging just 104 points a week vs Adam... the next lowest average points against is 114 against. That's a big gap.

5. Boston Patriots

It's pretty amazing how well this team is performing despite 0 trades and losing both Cobb and Wayne for the season. With the arrow pointing straight up for CJ?K AND Pierre Thomas (Sproles concussion), Mr. B should be able to stay competitive. However, no matter how good this team looks on paper... they may not have a chance to compete in the playoffs. Mr. B needs at least 2 more wins between matchups vs Me, Adam, Kait and Abe. Playoff bubble city. The high point total will likely push Mr. B into the playoffs but it's not a given. Mr. B has no chance for a 1st round bye. Also, I feel like Antonio Brown doesnt get the love he deserves. He's leading the league in receptions, on pace for 120. Must be elite.

6. The Godfather

Abe may be sporting the worst record in the league at 2-7 but his starting lineup is better than most in our league. Seriously. Gio Bernard is only going to get better, and Keenan Allen is for sure a top 15 WR the rest of the way. He's been excellent since he became a starter in SD. Another reason why I really like Abe's team for the stretch run is the emergence of Aaron Dobson as the go-to X receiver for Tom Brady. Dobson is going to be seeing a lot of 1 on 1 coverage and when Brady is the QB in that sort of situation... it can lead to big plays. This past week Dobson ended up with a line 5/130/2.

Abe has 2 really good chances to crush playoff dreams. This week vs the rental guys and the last week of the season vs the Boston Patriots. Even though this year has been a failure for Abe, he'll feel a lot better about it if he can crush these 2 team's dreams.

7. Victorious Secret 

Week 9 lineup mistakes by Kait:

-Had Cutler in at QB. He's been out with an injury.
-Played Vincent Brown and Tashard choice over CJ Spiller and Danny Woodhead
-Played the Green Bay Defense which was projected for 4 points and ended up scoring 3.

That being said, she still would have gotten crushed had she had her optimal lineup in. Percy Harvin continues to be a tease, and it seems like Harry Douglas has come back down to earth after a monstrous 3 week run where he averaged 22 points. Trent Richardson has been more than a disappointment... you cant count on him for any value in the remaining weeks. The positive news here comes out of New England... Gronk is back to being a major difference maker and Stevan Ridley is looking great. At 5-4 Kait is barely hanging on to a playoff spot... in fact shes in pretty bad shape moving forward. She doesnt have an advantage in total points, which means she needs at least 2 more wins to make the playoffs. Over the past month Kait is only averaging 94 points per week. Down the stretch she has to play Angry Pirates, Tahiti Loungers, Boston Patriots, and A Pinch Better.

8. Angry Pirates 

Chump Bunny lost to me this week in large part due to Darren Sproles exiting the game early after earning just 1 fantasy point. As I've said before... C Bell needs to be firing on all cylinders if he wants to win games. At 3-6 these Pirates need to win out and get help. An easy schedule down the stretch makes this possible, but obviously not likely.  This week Gordon is on bye and Campbell doesn't have a viable replacement for Sproles so we are likely a week away from writing the eulogy on the 2013 Angry Pirates.

Re-defining "Stanley Cup Hangover"-

Since the 2011 Championship victory, the Angry Pirates are 5-19 and averaging 97 points a week. Think about that for a minute. 5-19.

9. the rental guys

Dan's opponents averaged just under 90 points a game vs him during his 3 game win streak. This past week, however, Dan played an actual worthy opponent and again lost, bringing his overall record to 4-5.

The good- Zac Stacy is a beast, Cecil Shorts will benefit from no Blackmon, Leveon Bell is a work horse.

The bad- James Jones is meh without Rodgers. Jarret Boykin is useless without Rodgers. Jordan Cameron has come back to earth and is just a middling TE1 now. Carolina backfield is crowded. MJD still plays for the Jags.

You get my point. Things are trending in the wrong direction here. Dan most likely needs 3 wins to sneak in to the playoffs...his next 3 matchups are vs Abe, Bill, and Jenna so I REALLY don't see how this team has a chance to get in. Even 2009 Dan luck wouldnt be enough this year.

10. Comeback Story-

This team is so confusing. The 159 point beatdown Donny laid on Abe this week was a higher point total than his previous 2 week point totals combined. Brady had a day, the connection to Amendola was actually working. T Gonz and Alfred Morris both finally did something, and Mike James had an unbelievable game where he scored 27 points. ONe of my favorite players on this team. Terrance Williams, didnt even really contribute.

Anyway, at least we saw the Donny's team has the ability to beat anyone if you catch him on the wrong week. We've seen this team perform in spurts... the only meaningful matchup Donny has left is vs. Bill this week, if he can get another win here that's a nice silver lining for comeback story.

11. A Pinch Better-

This is what happens when you invest so much into injury prone running backs. This was a HORRIBLE time for Sean to have his worst week in League history.

Foster- 0 points. Left after the first drive. Dealing with at least 3 injuries.
Tate- 9 points on the bench. He has like 4 cracked ribs and can barely move right now.
DMC- 2 points. Left with another hamstring injury in the same place as he had before.
Murray- 10 points. Murray only had FOUR CARRIES in this game. He's good but the Cowboys don't feed him like they should. And even if they did, he's frail.

-Every week Sean faces a massive disadvantage at TE. Starting Dallas Clark is embarrassing.

-Sean has to win at least 3 of his 4 remaining matchups. Jenna is on tap this week (Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in the dome. Shoot out City) Then Campbell. Then Me. Then Kait.

12. A1 Providers 

Yikes. Paul is averaging just 95 points over the past month, and would need to win out to even have a prayer of making the playoffs. Adam should end those dreams this week in AC on Paul's Bachelor party. If for some wild reason Paul wins, he still has to beat Jenna, Bill and Abe. Not happening. The best thing Paul can do now is concentrate on Week 12 when he plays Bill. If he can eliminate Bill from the playoffs with a win in the 2nd to last week, the season wont be lost completely.

Outside of Marshall, Ellington and Gore this team is pretty disgusting. (Also interesting to note all 3 of those players were acquired in trade with me. Damnit.)

And lastly here are my updated Projected Final Standings:

1. Jenna (11-1-1)
2. James (11-2)
3. Adam (9-3-1)
4. Bill (8-5)
5. Kait (7-6) 
6. Mr B. (6-7)

7. Sean (6-7)
8. Dan (5-8)
9. Abe (4-9) 
10. Campbell (4-9)
11. Paul (3-10)
12. Donny (3-10)

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