November 21, 2013

JET's Picks: Week 12

Week 12

1 week of JET’s picks are in the books and I think we got off on the wrong foot. To say my picks were bad is an understatement. I lost the teaser and 2 of the 3 single games. Luckily for a “you can’t hit Drew Brees” penalty, the Saints were able to push. Again, the Texans failed me miserably, making Matt McGloin look like an all-pro in his first career start. I was able to save myself a bit by making a last minute teaser with the Chiefs, the over, and the Pats, but that didn’t help anyone who read this. Let’s put last week behind us, and move on to Week 12.

3-Team Teaser

Saints +.5 @ Falcons (originally -9.5)
Lions +1 vs. Bucs (originally -9)
Packers +5.5 vs. Vikings (originally -4.5)

I had planned on writing this “column” on Fridays, but I had to include the Thursday night game. The Falcons officially completed their downward spiral last week, getting destroyed by the 1 win Bucs. Saints on the road sometimes can be dicey, but it’s still in a dome so I am not worried. Matt Ryan looks awful and their defense is one of the worst out there. Drew Brees should be able to light up their secondary and glide to a victory. The Lions host the Bucs this week and I getting 1 with the tease seems too easy. Detroit should have won last week in Pitt except Jim Schwartz tried to fake a FG instead of go up 7 on the road, and the rest was history. The Bucs are on a 2 game win streak, and Mike Glennon looks like a legit NFL QB. Both those wins came at home though, and Detroit is in the thick of a playoff race. It will be interesting to see Megatron and Revis Island square off. There were a few games I was choosing from for my 3rd piece to the teaser, so I went with earlier game on Sunday. I know the Packers are reeling without Rodgers, but Tolzien hasn’t looked that bad. Certainly no worse than whatever the Vikings throw out there at QB. Add in the fact that AP is super banged up, it’s at Lambeau, and it’s a huge game for the Packers staying in the playoff hunt, and I see them coming out on top here.

ATS Picks
Chiefs -4.5 vs. Chargers
These spread boggles me. The Chiefs have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and are only laying 4.5 to the Chargers?  The Chargers have not been playing well lately and this seems like a huge bounce back game for the Chiefs. The Chargers have the 27th worst ranked defense in the league, so even the Chiefs offense shouldn’t have a problem moving the ball. This is most likely a trap game, with the Chiefs coming off a loss to Denver and looking ahead to Denver again next week, but I’ll fall for it.

Panthers -4 @ Dolphins
I think over the past couple of week, the Panthers have proven that they are legit. Looking to keep pace in the wild card and divisional race, I expect the Panthers to keep rolling here. Sure, the Dolphins are in the wild card race, are coming off a win, and are at home, but with 60% of their offensive line out I expect this Panthers defense to be all over Tannehill and their pathetic run game. Cam Newton continues to impress week after week, and I look for him to continue that against a mediocre Miami team. I am usually weary of these small road favorites, but not here. Panthers roll.

Broncos -2.5 @ Patriots
Tough stretch for the Pats here, coming off a MNF loss at the Panthers (because they deserved to lose, not because of a picked up flag), and coming back home to face Peyton and the Broncos. Seriously, I still don’t know how the Colts beat them. They look unstoppable. I expect Welker to suit up and to have a huge game against his former teammates. I also see a nice bounce back game for Knowshon Moreno. It should be a great game, and it might even be close, but until the Broncos lose again, or don’t cover, I’m not picking against them.

Quick Hitters
Jags +10 @ Texans
Browns -1.5 vs. Steelers
Bears +1 @ Rams
Jets +4 @ Ravens
Raiders PICK vs. Titans
Cardinals -2.5 vs. Colts
Cowboys +2.5 @ Giants
49ers -5.5 @ Redskins

Of course, all lines are subject to change between now and Sunday. Hopefully this week turns out much better than last week. As always, I Jeremy Guarantee you winners!

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